Global Carbon Budget: Ocean carbon sink.

CO2 emissions from human activities, the main contributor to global climate change, are set to rise again in 2014 reaching 40 billion tonnes CO2 The natural carbon ‘sinks’ on land and in the ocean absorb on average 55% of the total CO2 emissions, thus slowing the rate of global climate change Increasing CO2 in the oceans is causing ocean acidificatio

Reaching peak emissions

Rapid growth in global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry ceased in the past two years, despite continued economic growth. Decreased coal use in China was largely responsible, coupled with slower global growth in petroleum and faster growth in renewables

Duration of ruptured membranes and mother-to-child HIV transmission: a prospective population-based surveillance study

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between duration of rupture of membranes (ROM) and mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) rates in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). DESIGN: The National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood (NSHPC) undertakes comprehensive population-based surveillance of HIV in pregnant women and children. SETTING: UK and Ireland. POPULATION: A cohort of 2398 singleton pregnancies delivered vaginally, or by emergency caesarean section, in women on cART in pregnancy during the period 2007-2012 with information on duration of ROM; HIV infection status was available for 1898 infants. METHODS: Descriptive analysis of NSHPC data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of MTCT. RESULTS: In 2116 pregnancies delivered at term, the median duration of ROM was 3 hours 30 minutes (interquartile range, IQR 1-8 hours). The overall MTCT rate for women delivering at term with duration of ROM ≥4 hours was 0.64% compared with 0.34% for ROM <4 hours, with no significant difference between the groups (OR 1.90, 95% CI 0.45-7.97). In women delivering at term with a viral load of <50 copies/ml, there was no evidence of a difference in MTCT rates with duration of ROM ≥4 hours, compared with <4 hours (0.14% for ≥4 hours versus 0.12% for <4 hour; OR 1.14, 95% CI 0.07-18.27). Among infants born preterm with infection status available, there were no transmissions in 163 deliveries where the maternal viral load was <50 copies/ml. CONCLUSIONS: No association was found between duration of ROM and MTCT in women taking cART. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Rupture of membranes of more than 4 hours is not associated with MTCT of HIV in women on effective ART delivering at term

Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement

Current emission pledges to the Paris Agreement appear insufficient to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Yet, details are missing on how to track progress towards the â € Paris goal', inform the five-yearly â € global stocktake', and increase the ambition of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). We develop a nested structure of key indicators to track progress through time. Global emissions track aggregated progress, country-level decompositions track emerging trends that link directly to NDCs, and technology diffusion indicates future reductions. We find the recent slowdown in global emissions growth is due to reduced growth in coal use since 2011, primarily in China and secondarily in the United States. The slowdown is projected to continue in 2016, with global CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry similar to the 2015 level of 36 GtCO 2. Explosive and policy-driven growth in wind and solar has contributed to the global emissions slowdown, but has been less important than economic factors and energy efficiency. We show that many key indicators are currently broadly consistent with emission scenarios that keep temperatures below 2 °C, but the continued lack of large-scale carbon capture and storage threatens 2030 targets and the longer-term Paris ambition of net-zero emissions

General model and toolkit for the ionization of three or more electrons in strongly driven molecules using an effective Coulomb potential for the interaction between bound electrons

We formulate a general three-dimensional semiclassical model for the study of correlated multielectron escape during fragmentation of molecules driven by intense infrared laser pulses. We do so in the context of triple ionization of strongly driven HeH2+. Our model fully accounts for the singularity in the Coulomb potentials of a recolliding electron with the core and a bound electron with the core as well as for the interaction of a recolliding electron with a bound electron. This model also accounts for the magnetic field of the laser pulse. To avoid artificial autoionization, our model employs effective potentials to treat the interaction between bound electrons. We focus on triple and double ionization as well as frustrated triple and frustrated double ionization. In these processes, we identify and explain the main features of the sum of the kinetic energies of the final ion fragments. We find that frustrated double ionization is a major ionization process, and we identify the different channels and hence different final fragments that are obtained through frustrated double ionization. Also, we discuss the differences between frustrated double and triple ionization

Singularity in the electron-core potential as a gateway to accurate multielectron ionization spectra in strongly driven atoms

We demonstrate a general three-dimensional semiclassical model as a powerful technique for the study of correlated multielectron escape in atoms driven by infrared laser pulses at intensities where electron-electron correlation prevails. We do so in the context of triple ionization of strongly driven Ne. Our model fully accounts for the singularity in the Coulomb potentials of a recolliding electron with the core and a bound electron with the core as well as for the interaction of a recolliding with a bound electron. To avoid artificial autoionization, our model employs effective potentials to treat the interaction between bound electrons. We show the accuracy of our model by obtaining triple ionization distributions of the sum of the final electron momenta which we find to be in very good agreement with experiments. Also, we explain the main features of these momenta distributions in terms of the prevalent pathways of correlated three-electron escape in Ne. We also show that the different ionization pathways prevailing in three-electron escape in strongly driven Ne versus Ar give rise to different momenta distributions in these two atoms. Our general model may be used to identify novel ultrafast phenomena and to motivate further experiments in strong field science

Complete analysis of the B-cell response to a protein antigen, from in vivo germinal centre formation to 3-D modelling of affinity maturation

Somatic hypermutation of immunoglobulin variable region genes occurs within germinal centres (GCs) and is the process responsible for affinity maturation of antibodies during an immune response. Previous studies have focused almost exclusively on the immune response to haptens, which may be unrepresentative of epitopes on protein antigens. In this study, we have exploited a model system that uses transgenic B and CD4&lt;sup&gt;+&lt;/sup&gt; T cells specific for hen egg lysozyme (HEL) and a chicken ovalbumin peptide, respectively, to investigate a tightly synchronized immune response to protein antigens of widely differing affinities, thus allowing us to track many facets of the development of an antibody response at the antigen-specific B cell level in an integrated system &lt;i&gt;in&lt;/i&gt; &lt;i&gt;vivo&lt;/i&gt;. Somatic hypermutation of immunoglobulin variable genes was analysed in clones of transgenic B cells proliferating in individual GCs in response to HEL or the cross-reactive low-affinity antigen, duck egg lysozyme (DEL). Molecular modelling of the antibody–antigen interface demonstrates that recurring mutations in the antigen-binding site, selected in GCs, enhance interactions of the antibody with DEL. The effects of these mutations on affinity maturation are demonstrated by a shift of transgenic serum antibodies towards higher affinity for DEL in DEL-cOVA immunized mice. The results show that B cells with high affinity antigen receptors can revise their specificity by somatic hypermutation and antigen selection in response to a low-affinity, cross-reactive antigen. These observations shed further light on the nature of the immune response to pathogens and autoimmunity and demonstrate the utility of this novel model for studies of the mechanisms of somatic hypermutation

Transboundary health impacts of transported global air pollution and international trade

Millions of people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Some studies have estimated premature mortality related to local sources of air pollution6, 7, but local air quality can also be affected by atmospheric transport of pollution from distant sources8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18. International trade is contributing to the globalization of emission and pollution as a result of the production of goods (and their associated emissions) in one region for consumption in another region14, 19, 20, 21, 22. The effects of international trade on air pollutant emissions23, air quality14 and health24 have been investigated regionally, but a combined, global assessment of the health impacts related to international trade and the transport of atmospheric air pollution is lacking. Here we combine four global models to estimate premature mortality caused by fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution as a result of atmospheric transport and the production and consumption of goods and services in different world regions. We find that, of the 3.45 million premature deaths related to PM2.5 pollution in 2007 worldwide, about 12 per cent (411,100 deaths) were related to air pollutants emitted in a region of the world other than that in which the death occurred, and about 22 per cent (762,400 deaths) were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. For example, PM2.5 pollution produced in China in 2007 is linked to more than 64,800 premature deaths in regions other than China, including more than 3,100 premature deaths in western Europe and the USA; on the other hand, consumption in western Europe and the USA is linked to more than 108,600 premature deaths in China. Our results reveal that the transboundary health impacts of PM2.5 pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport

Climate impacts of energy technologies depend on emissions timing

Energy technologies emit greenhouse gases with differing radiative efficiencies and atmospheric lifetimes. Standard practice for evaluating technologies, which uses the global warming potential (GWP) to compare the integrated radiative forcing of emitted gases over a fixed time horizon, does not acknowledge the importance of a changing background climate relative to climate change mitigation targets. Here we demonstrate that the GWP misvalues the impact of CH[subscript 4]-emitting technologies as mid-century approaches, and we propose a new class of metrics to evaluate technologies based on their time of use. The instantaneous climate impact (ICI) compares gases in an expected radiative forcing stabilization year, and the cumulative climate impact (CCI) compares their time-integrated radiative forcing up to a stabilization year. Using these dynamic metrics, we quantify the climate impacts of technologies and show that high-CH[subscript 4]-emitting energy sources become less advantageous over time. The impact of natural gas for transportation, with CH[subscript 4] leakage, exceeds that of gasoline within 1–2 decades for a commonly cited 3 W m[superscript −2] stabilization target. The impact of algae biodiesel overtakes that of corn ethanol within 2–3 decades, where algae co-products are used to produce biogas and corn co-products are used for animal feed. The proposed metrics capture the changing importance of CH[subscript 4] emissions as a climate threshold is approached, thereby addressing a major shortcoming of the GWP for technology evaluation.New England University Transportation Center (DOT Grant DTRT07-G-0001

Comment on “The global tree restoration potential”

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from American Association for the Advancement of Science via the DOI in this record.Bastin et al. (Reports, 5 July 2019, p. 76) claim that global tree restoration is the most effective climate change solution to date, with a reported carbon storage potential of 205 gigatonnes of carbon. However, this estimate and its implications for climate mitigation are inconsistent with the dynamics of the global carbon cycle and its response to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.European UnionEuropean Commissio