Dynamische Modellierung des Hamburger Containerumschlags: ein ADL-Ansatz

Zur Illustration einer dynamischen Autoregression Distributed Lag (ADL)-Modellierung dient in dieser Analyse der Containerumschlag Deutschlands in Abhängigkeit vom Welt-GDP. Der ADF-Test deutet dabei auf trendstationäre Zeitreihen hin. In solchen Fällen sollten bei der Überprüfung von Granger-Kausalitäten und der Messung der Anpassungsgüte entsprechend modifizierte Maße benutzt werden. Nach Darstellung dieser Instrumente erfolgt die Schätzung eines ADL(1,1)-Modells. Dabei zeigt sich insbesondere eine hohe Reagibilität des (seewärtigen) Hamburger Containerumschlags auf Änderungen des Welt-GDP in der gleichen Periode. -- This paper illustrates the autoregressive distributed lag (ADL)-models by an example of the container throughput of Hamburg as dependent and the world-GDP as explanatory variable. ADF-tests show that the two time series are trend-stationary. In such cases Granger causality-tests and the coefficient of determination should be modified. A useful estimation is an ADL(1,1)-model. Interesting is in that case, that the container throughput of Hamburg is of high reagibility to changes of the world-GDP in the current period.

Mögliche Bestimmungsgründe einer Studienaufnahme in Deutschland

Diese Arbeit untersucht die Abhängigkeit einer Studienaufnahme von ausgewählten sozioökonomischen Variablen. Dazu werden mit Daten aus dem Sozio-ökonomischen Panel mittels eines Probit-Modells Schätzungen bezüglich der Wahrscheinlichkeiten einer Studienaufnahme bei Personen mit Hochschulzugangsberechtigung modelliert. Es zeigt sich, dass für den gewählten Betrachtungszeitraum die hier ausgewählten ökonomische Faktoren, Angaben über die Bildungsherkunft oder allgemeine persönliche Daten nur partiell für die Entscheidung zur Studienaufnahme erklärend herangezogen werden können. -- This paper investigates the influence of socio-economic factors on the decision to go to university. To this end data from the socio-economic panel is used for estimating the probability of taking up studies with the Probit-model. The result of the study indicates that for the period of time in question neither the economic factors nor the educational background nor general personal data provide satisfactory explanation for the decision to go to university or not.

Recent Advances in Systemic Scleroderma in Childhood

Ann Paediatr Rheumatol Annals of paediatric rheumatolog http://www.aprjournal.org/ 2146-2909 (Print

Biomechanical Effects of a Cross Connector in Sacral Fractures – A Finite Element Analysis

Background: Spinopelvic fractures and approaches of operative stabilization have been a source of controversial discussion. Biomechanical data support the benefit of a spinopelvic stabilization and minimally invasive procedures help to reduce the dissatisfying complication rate. The role of a cross connector within spinopelvic devices remains inconclusive. We aimed to analyze the effect of a cross connector in a finite element model (FE model). Study Design: A FE model of the L1-L5 spine segment with pelvis and a spinopelvic stabilization was reconstructed from patient-specific CT images. The biomechanical relevance of a cross connector in a Denis zone I (AO: 61-B2) sacrum fracture was assessed in the FE model by applying bending and twisting forces with and without a cross connector. Biomechanical outcomes from the numerical model were investigated also considering uncertainties in material properties and levels of osseointegration. Results: The designed FE model showed comparable values in range-of-motion (ROM) and stresses with reference to the literature. The superiority of the spinopelvic stabilization (L5/Os ilium) ± cross connector compared to a non-operative procedure was confirmed in all analyzed loading conditions by reduced ROM and principal stresses in the disk L5/S1, vertebral body L5 and the fracture area. By considering the combination of all loading cases, the presence of a cross connector reduced the maximum stresses in the fracture area of around 10%. This difference has been statistically validated (p < 0.0001). Conclusion: The implementation of a spinopelvic stabilization (L5/Os ilium) in sacrum fractures sustained the fracture and led to enhanced biomechanical properties compared to a non-reductive procedure. While the additional cross connector did not alter the resulting ROM in L4/L5 or L5/sacrum, the reduction of the maximum stresses in the fracture area was significant. © Copyright © 2021 Gierig, Liu, Weiser, Lehmann, Wriggers, Marino and Saul

Considerations on Artifacts of Digital Culture in English Language Teaching: Conspiracy Theories on the Instagram Feed

In this contribution, we present some considerations on the role digital artifacts could and should play in 21st-century language teaching. Our argument focuses on social media feeds (in particular: the Instagram feed) as a prototypical example of digital artifacts. We highlight the potentially manipulative force of the Instagram feed using the example of conspiracy theories as a case-in-point. Illustrating our argument with examples from ongoing empirical work, we suggest and elaborate on three challenges entailed by implementing social media feeds in the language classroom: They constitute a moving target due to their dynamics, inspire a false sense of security because of filter bubble as well as third-person effects and confront us with the question of “What can we do in the classroom?”. We conclude by suggesting possible components of Critical Digital Literacy as an answer to this question

Identification of chemically sulfated/desulfated glycosaminoglycans in contaminated heparins and development of a simple assay for the detection of most contaminants in heparin

Contaminated heparin was linked to at least 149 deaths and hundreds of adverse reactions. Published report indicates that heparin contaminants were a natural impurity, dermatan sulfate, and a contaminant, oversulfated chondroitin sulfate (OSCS). OSCS was assumed to derive from animal cartilage. By analyzing 26 contaminated heparin lots from different sources, our data indicate that the heparin contaminants were chemically sulfated or chemically sulfated/desulfated glycosaminoglycans (GAGs) consisting of heparan sulfate, chondroitin sulfate, and dermatan sulfate based on monosaccharide quantification, CE, heparin lyase digestion, and liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry analysis. Since currently recommended heparin quality control assays had failed to detect certain heparin contaminants, a simple method that detects most contaminants in heparin was developed. This assay detects specific heparin structures that most contaminants cannot mimic and can be performed in any laboratory equipped with an UV spectrometer

Ultrastructure of the Microsporidium, Duboscqia legeri, the Type Species of the Genus Duboscqia Perez, 1908

The type species of the genus Duboscqia Perez, 1908 (Opisthokonta, Microspora), D. legeri is a pathogen of termites. It was found again in Zootermopsis angusticollis in British Columbia and the material is used for emendation of data on ultrastructures of this old genus. The sporogony of this microsporidian ends with 16 oval spores closed in sporophorous vesicles. The isofilar polar filament coiled in 13 coils, the arched anchoring disc and the polaroplast with tightly packed lamellae are typical for the ultrastructures of uninucleate spores. The sporophorous vesicle is persistent. The microsporidian infects cyst-like lobes of the fat body hanging free in the body cavity. Relations to other related genera are discussed

Oxidative functionalization mechanisms in organic synthesis using fenton reaction systems

We argued an oxywater-oxene concept for hydrogen peroxide transformation in Fenton reaction systems and used this interpretation for mechanisms explanation of hydroperoxide monooxygen oxidative functionalization processes (alkane and arene hydroxylation, alkene epoxidation, Baeyer-Villiger ketone oxidation to ester, organonitrogen compounds N-oxidation and organosulfur compounds S-oxidation) and dioxygen alkene and alkadiene functionalization processes (synthesis of hydroperoxides and cyclic peroxides)

The Dynamic Relationship Between Social Support and HIV-Related Stigma in Rural Uganda

Background—Cross-sectional studies show that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) stigma is negatively correlated with social support. Purpose—The purpose of this study is to examine the bidirectional relationship between social support and HIV stigma. Methods—We collected quarterly data from a cohort of 422 people living with HIV in Uganda, followed for a median of 2.1 years. We used multilevel regression to model the contemporaneous and 3-month-lagged associations between social support and both enacted and internalized stigma. Results—Lagged enacted stigma was negatively correlated with emotional and instrumental social support, and lagged instrumental social support was negatively correlated with enacted stigma. Internalized stigma and emotional social support had reciprocal lagged associations. Conclusions—Interventions to reduce enacted stigma may strengthen social support for people living with HIV. Improved social support may in turn have a protective influence against future enacted and internalized stigma