Recommendations for the development of a health sector resource allocation formula in Malawi

This report describes a spreadsheet tool designed to inform the allocation of health service funding to district councils in Malawi. The methods seek to allocate funds between districts so as to provide the opportunity of securing equal access to services for equal need for the interventions contained in Malawi's Essential Health Package (EHP). The relevant funding streams for allocation relate to the available budgets for drugs and other recurrent transactions (ORT), but excludes costs relating to personnel

Gut microbiomes from Gambian infants reveal the development of a non-industrialized Prevotella-based trophic network.

Funder: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Grand Challenges New Interventions in Global Health awardFunder: MRC Unit The Gambia/MRC International Nutrition Group by the UK MRC and the UK Department for the International DevelopmentDistinct bacterial trophic networks exist in the gut microbiota of individuals in industrialized and non-industrialized countries. In particular, non-industrialized gut microbiomes tend to be enriched with Prevotella species. To study the development of these Prevotella-rich compositions, we investigated the gut microbiota of children aged between 7 and 37 months living in rural Gambia (616 children, 1,389 stool samples, stratified by 3-month age groups). These infants, who typically eat a high-fibre, low-protein diet, were part of a double-blind, randomized iron intervention trial (NCT02941081) and here we report the secondary outcome. We found that child age was the largest discriminating factor between samples and that anthropometric indices (collection time points, season, geographic collection site, and iron supplementation) did not significantly influence the gut microbiome. Prevotella copri, Faecalibacterium prausnitzii and Prevotella stercorea were, on average, the most abundant species in these 1,389 samples (35%, 11% and 7%, respectively). Distinct bacterial trophic network clusters were identified, centred around either P. stercorea or F. prausnitzii and were found to develop steadily with age, whereas P. copri, independently of other species, rapidly became dominant after weaning. This dataset, set within a critical gut microbial developmental time frame, provides insights into the development of Prevotella-rich gut microbiomes, which are typically understudied and are underrepresented in western populations

Gut microbiomes from Gambian infants reveal the development of a non-industrialized Prevotella-based trophic network.

Funder: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Grand Challenges New Interventions in Global Health awardFunder: MRC Unit The Gambia/MRC International Nutrition Group by the UK MRC and the UK Department for the International DevelopmentDistinct bacterial trophic networks exist in the gut microbiota of individuals in industrialized and non-industrialized countries. In particular, non-industrialized gut microbiomes tend to be enriched with Prevotella species. To study the development of these Prevotella-rich compositions, we investigated the gut microbiota of children aged between 7 and 37 months living in rural Gambia (616 children, 1,389 stool samples, stratified by 3-month age groups). These infants, who typically eat a high-fibre, low-protein diet, were part of a double-blind, randomized iron intervention trial (NCT02941081) and here we report the secondary outcome. We found that child age was the largest discriminating factor between samples and that anthropometric indices (collection time points, season, geographic collection site, and iron supplementation) did not significantly influence the gut microbiome. Prevotella copri, Faecalibacterium prausnitzii and Prevotella stercorea were, on average, the most abundant species in these 1,389 samples (35%, 11% and 7%, respectively). Distinct bacterial trophic network clusters were identified, centred around either P. stercorea or F. prausnitzii and were found to develop steadily with age, whereas P. copri, independently of other species, rapidly became dominant after weaning. This dataset, set within a critical gut microbial developmental time frame, provides insights into the development of Prevotella-rich gut microbiomes, which are typically understudied and are underrepresented in western populations

Flexibility within the Heads of Muscle Myosin-2 Molecules

We show that negative-stain electron microscopy and image processing of nucleotide-free (apo) striated muscle myosin-2 subfragment-1 (S1), possessing one light chain or both light chains, is capable of resolving significant amounts of structural detail. The overall appearance of the motor and the lever is similar in rabbit, scallop and chicken S1. Projection matching of class averages of the different S1 types to projection views of two different crystal structures of apo S1 shows that all types most commonly closely resemble the appearance of the scallop S1 structure rather than the methylated chicken S1 structure. Methylation of chicken S1 has no effect on the structure of the molecule at this resolution: it too resembles the scallop S1 crystal structure. The lever is found to vary in its angle of attachment to the motor domain, with a hinge point located in the so-called pliant region between the converter and the essential light chain. The chicken S1 crystal structure lies near one end of the range of flexion observed. The Gaussian spread of angles of flexion suggests that flexibility is driven thermally, from which a torsional spring constant of ~ 23 pN·nm/rad2 is estimated on average for all S1 types, similar to myosin-5. This translates to apparent cantilever-type stiffness at the tip of the lever of 0.37 pN/nm. Because this stiffness is lower than recent estimates from myosin-2 heads attached to actin, we suggest that binding to actin leads to an allosteric stiffening of the motor–lever junction

Potential cost-effectiveness of community availability of tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir for HIV prevention and treatment in east, central, southern, and west Africa: a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND: Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) offers protection from HIV after condomless sex, but is not widely available in a timely manner in east, central, southern, and west Africa. To inform the potential pilot implementation of such an approach, we modelled the effect and cost-effectiveness of making PEP consisting of tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir (TLD) freely and locally available in communities without prescription, with the aim of enabling PEP use within 24 h of condomless sex. Free community availability of TLD (referred to as community TLD) might also result in some use of TLD as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and as antiretroviral therapy for people living with HIV. METHODS: Using an existing individual-based model (HIV Synthesis), we explicitly modelled the potential positive and negative effects of community TLD. Through the sampling of parameter values we created 1000 setting-scenarios, reflecting the uncertainty in assumptions and a range of settings similar to those seen in east, central, southern, and west Africa (with a median HIV prevalence of 14·8% in women and 8·1% in men). For each setting scenario, we considered the effects of community TLD. TLD PEP was assumed to have at least 90% efficacy in preventing HIV infection after condomless sex with a person living with HIV. FINDINGS: The modelled effects of community TLD availability based on an assumed high uptake of TLD resulted in a mean reduction in incidence of 31% (90% range over setting scenarios, 6% increase to 57% decrease) over 20 years, with an HIV incidence reduction over 50 years in 91% of the 1000 setting scenarios, deaths averted in 55% of scenarios, reduction in costs in 92% of scenarios, and disability-adjusted life-years averted in 64% of scenarios with community TLD. Community TLD was cost-effective in 90% of setting scenarios and cost-saving (with disability-adjusted life-years averted) in 58% of scenarios. When only examining setting scenarios in which there was lower uptake of community TLD, community TLD is cost-effective in 92% of setting scenarios. INTERPRETATION: The introduction of community TLD, enabling greater PEP access, is a promising approach to consider further in pilot implementation projects. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to the HIV Modelling Consortium

A global scientific strategy to cure hepatitis B

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a global public health challenge on the same scale as tuberculosis, HIV, and malaria. The International Coalition to Eliminate HBV (ICE-HBV) is a coalition of experts dedicated to accelerating the discovery of a cure for chronic hepatitis B. Following extensive consultation with more than 50 scientists from across the globe, as well as key stakeholders including people affected by HBV, we have identified gaps in our current knowledge and new strategies and tools that are required to achieve HBV cure. We believe that research must focus on the discovery of interventional strategies that will permanently reduce the number of productively infected cells or permanently silence the covalently closed circular DNA in those cells, and that will stimulate HBV-specific host immune responses which mimic spontaneous resolution of HBV infection. There is also a pressing need for the establishment of repositories of standardised HBV reagents and protocols that can be accessed by all HBV researchers throughout the world. The HBV cure research agenda outlined in this position paper will contribute markedly to the goal of eliminating HBV infection worldwide

The potential role of long-acting injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine in the treatment of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa : a modelling analysis

BACKGROUND: The use of a combination of the integrase inhibitor, cabotegravir, and the non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor, rilpivirine, in a long-acting injectable form is being considered as an antiretroviral treatment option for people with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. We aimed to model the effects of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine to help to inform its potential effectiveness and cost-effectiveness under different possible policies for its introduction. METHODS: We used an existing individual-based model of HIV to predict the effects of introducing monthly injections of cabotegravir-rilpivirine for people with HIV in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluated policies in the context of 1000 setting scenarios that reflected characteristics of HIV epidemics and programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. We compared three policies for introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine with continued use of dolutegravir-based oral regimens for: all individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART); individuals with a recently measured viral load of more than 1000 copies per mL (signifying poor adherence to oral drugs, and often associated with drug resistance); and individuals with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL (a group with a lower prevalence of pre-existing drug resistance). We also did cost-effectiveness analysis, taking a health system perspective over a 10 year period, with 3% discounting of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and costs. A cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per DALY averted was used to establish if a policy was cost-effective. FINDINGS: In our model, all policies involving the introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine were predicted to lead to an increased proportion of people with HIV on ART, increased viral load suppression, and decreased AIDS-related mortality, with lesser benefits in people with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL. Its introduction is also predicted to lead to increases in resistance to integrase inhibitors and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors if introduced in all people with HIV on ART or in those with a recently measured viral load of less than 1000 copies per mL, but to a lesser extent if introduced in people with more than 1000 copies per mL due to concentration of its use in people less adherent to oral therapy. Consistent with the effect on AIDS-related mortality, all approaches to the introduction of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine are predicted to avert DALYs. Assuming a cost of$120 per person per year, use of this regimen in people with a recently measured viral load of more than 1000 copies per mL was borderline cost-effective (median cost per DALY averted across setting scenarios $404). The other approaches considered for its use are unlikely to be cost-effective unless the cost per year of injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine is considerably reduced. INTERPRETATION: Our modelling suggests that injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine offers potential benefits; however, to be a cost-effective option, its introduction might need to be carefully targeted to individuals with HIV who might otherwise have suboptimal adherence to ART. As data accumulate from trials and implementation studies, such findings can be incorporated into the model to better inform on the full consequences of policy alternatives. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, including through the HIV Modelling Consortium (OPP1191655)

Modeling the epidemiological impact of the UNAIDS 2025 targets to end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030

BACKGROUND: UNAIDS has established new program targets for 2025 to achieve the goal of eliminating AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. This study reports on efforts to use mathematical models to estimate the impact of achieving those targets. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We simulated the impact of achieving the targets at country level using the Goals model, a mathematical simulation model of HIV epidemic dynamics that includes the impact of prevention and treatment interventions. For 77 high-burden countries, we fit the model to surveillance and survey data for 1970 to 2020 and then projected the impact of achieving the targets for the period 2019 to 2030. Results from these 77 countries were extrapolated to produce estimates for 96 others. Goals model results were checked by comparing against projections done with the Optima HIV model and the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) for selected countries. We included estimates of the impact of societal enablers (access to justice and law reform, stigma and discrimination elimination, and gender equality) and the impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Results show that achieving the 2025 targets would reduce new annual infections by 83% (71% to 86% across regions) and AIDS-related deaths by 78% (67% to 81% across regions) by 2025 compared to 2010. Lack of progress on societal enablers could endanger these achievements and result in as many as 2.6 million (44%) cumulative additional new HIV infections and 440,000 (54%) more AIDS-related deaths between 2020 and 2030 compared to full achievement of all targets. COVID-19-related disruptions could increase new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 10% in the next 2 years, but targets could still be achieved by 2025. Study limitations include the reliance on self-reports for most data on behaviors, the use of intervention effect sizes from published studies that may overstate intervention impacts outside of controlled study settings, and the use of proxy countries to estimate the impact in countries with fewer than 4,000 annual HIV infections. CONCLUSIONS: The new targets for 2025 build on the progress made since 2010 and represent ambitious short-term goals. Achieving these targets would bring us close to the goals of reducing new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% between 2010 and 2030. By 2025, global new infections and AIDS deaths would drop to 4.4 and 3.9 per 100,000 population, and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) would be declining. There would be 32 million people on treatment, and they would need continuing support for their lifetime. Incidence for the total global population would be below 0.15% everywhere. The number of PLHIV would start declining by 2023

A research agenda for curing chronic hepatitis B virus infection.

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142483/1/hep29509.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/142483/2/hep29509_am.pd