False-alarm probability in relation to over-sampled power spectra, with application to Super-Kamiokande solar neutrino data

The term "false-alarm probability" denotes the probability that at least one out of M independent power values in a prescribed search band of a power spectrum computed from a white-noise time series is expected to be as large as or larger than a given value. The usual formula is based on the assumption that powers are distributed exponentially, as one expects for power measurements of normally distributed random noise. However, in practice one typically examines peaks in an over-sampled power spectrum. It is therefore more appropriate to compare the strength of a particular peak with the distribution of peaks in over-sampled power spectra derived from normally distributed random noise. We show that this leads to a formula for the false-alarm probability that is more conservative than the familiar formula. We also show how to combine these results with a Bayesian method for estimating the probability of the null hypothesis (that there is no oscillation in the time series), and we discuss as an example the application of these procedures to Super-Kamiokande solar neutrino data

Rapid fluctuations in solar flares

Study of rapid fluctuations in the emission of radiation from solar flares provides a promising approach for probing the magneto-plasma structure and plasma processes that are responsible for a flare. It is proposed that elementary flare bursts in X-ray and microwave emission may be attributed to fine structure of the coronal magnetic field, related to the aggregation of photospheric magnetic field into magnetic knots. Fluctuations that occur on a subsecond time-scale may be due to magnetic islands that develop in current sheets during magnetic reconnection. The impulsive phase may sometimes represent the superposition of a large number of the elementary energy-release processes responsible for elementary flare bursts. If so, the challenge of trying to explain the properties of the impulsive phase in terms of the properties of the elementary processes must be faced. Magnetic field configurations that might produce solar flares are divided into a number of categories, depending on: whether or not there is a filament; whether there is no current sheet, a closed current sheet, or an open current sheet; and whether the filament erupts into the corona, or is ejected completely from the Sun's atmosphere. Analysis of the properties of these possible configurations is compared with different types of flares, and to Bai's subdivision of gamma-ray/proton events

Physics of solar activity

The aim of the research activity was to increase our understanding of solar activity through data analysis, theoretical analysis, and computer modeling. Because the research subjects were diverse and many researchers were supported by this grant, a select few key areas of research are described in detail. Areas of research include: (1) energy storage and force-free magnetic field; (2) energy release and particle acceleration; (3) radiation by nonthermal electrons; (4) coronal loops; (5) flare classification; (6) longitude distributions of flares; (7) periodicities detected in the solar activity; (8) coronal heating and related problems; and (9) plasma processes

Additional experimental evidence for a solar influence on nuclear decay rates

Additional experimental evidence is presented in support of the recent hypothesis that a possible solar influence could explain fluctuations observed in the measured decay rates of some isotopes. These data were obtained during routine weekly calibrations of an instrument used for radiological safety at The Ohio State University Research Reactor using Cl-36. The detector system used was based on a Geiger-Mueller gas detector, which is a robust detector system with very low susceptibility to environmental changes. A clear annual variation is evident in the data, with a maximum relative count rate observed in January/February, and a minimum relative count rate observed in July/August, for seven successive years from July 2005 to June 2011. This annual variation is not likely to have arisen from changes in the detector surroundings, as we show here.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Evidence for Solar Influences on Nuclear Decay Rates

Recent reports of periodic fluctuations in nuclear decay data of certain isotopes have led to the suggestion that nuclear decay rates are being influenced by the Sun, perhaps via neutrinos. Here we present evidence for the existence of an additional periodicity that appears to be related to the Rieger periodicity well known in solar physics.Comment: Presented at the Fifth Meeting on CPT and Lorentz Symmetry, Bloomington, Indiana, June 28-July 2, 201