Significance testing without truth

A popular approach to significance testing proposes to decide whether the given hypothesized statistical model is likely to be true (or false). Statistical decision theory provides a basis for this approach by requiring every significance test to make a decision about the truth of the hypothesis/model under consideration. Unfortunately, many interesting and useful models are obviously false (that is, not exactly true) even before considering any data. Fortunately, in practice a significance test need only gauge the consistency (or inconsistency) of the observed data with the assumed hypothesis/model -- without enquiring as to whether the assumption is likely to be true (or false), or whether some alternative is likely to be true (or false). In this practical formulation, a significance test rejects a hypothesis/model only if the observed data is highly improbable when calculating the probability while assuming the hypothesis being tested; the significance test only gauges whether the observed data likely invalidates the assumed hypothesis, and cannot decide that the assumption -- however unmistakably false -- is likely to be false a priori, without any data.Comment: 9 page

The nature and origins of boredom

It has been assumed, stemming from the work of Hebb (1955, 1966) and Berlyne (1960, 1967), that boredom occurs when stimuli are physically monotonous. Further the authors argue that boredom is accompanied by an aversive state of physiological arousal. Others (Thackray etal, 1974, 1975; Bailey etal, 1976) have argued that boredom is more closely related to ttentional processes than to arousal and thus is associated with an increase in heart rate variability. The purpose of the work reported was to examine these two notions. A series of experiments using techniques derived from personal construct theory (Kelly, 1955) strongly suggested that physically monotonous stimulation is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the occurrence of boredom. Reterospective studies using such techniques revealed that boring activities are instrumentally less satisfying of motivational needs, and are associated with a significantly higher degree of frustration, than disliked or interesting activities. Studies producing boredom in the 'here and now' using repertory grid techniques revealed that boredom is associated with subjective, rather than physical monotony. Psychophysiological recording techniques were used to compare changes in the heart rate variability index of attention and the heart rate index of arousal during boredom produced by tasks imposing different mental loads. This study suggested that changes in such indices are task rather than boredom dependent. A model of boredom is presented, on the basis of the experimental evidence, which distinguishes the cognitive and affective components of boredom. It is argued that when a person makes few instrumentally satisfying constructions of stimulation, that stimulation will be perceived as subjectively monotonous and consequently boring. The negative affect associated with boredom appears to be a function of a high degree of overall frustration

Wine Wars: How We Have Painted Ourselves into a Regulatory Corner

A private citizen can violate the Constitution in two ways. The first is by enslaving another person, an atrocious act that should be proscribed by the highest law in the land. The second is by transporting alcohol across a state line in violation of the laws of that state. The two actions are hardly of the same magnitude. The history of alcohol regulation has been a litany of failed attempts--on both the state and federal levels. Each new layer of legislation created additional problems. Most are familiar with the infamy of Prohibition, the federal ban on the manufacture or sale of alcohol repealed by the Twenty-First Amendment. Few, however,realize post-Prohibition state bans on the sale of alcohol, ostensibly under power granted by the Twenty-First Amendment, create a web of regulation that effectively instituted a new prohibition--one on out-of-state alcohol. Fueled by the increasing popularity of wine tourism and online shopping, consumers have begun to notice the lack of availability in their local stores. This awareness has sparked an onslaught of consumer activism, energized by online advocacy groups. States, however, have staunchly held on to their convoluted regulation schemes with the strong support of wholesalers, a powerful industry group which benefits significantly from the current mandated distribution system. The result is an on-going trade war with consumers and producers on one side and states and wholesalers on the other. This Note argues that the Twenty-First Amendment has been distorted and stretched to an impermissible extreme and advocates a reexamination of alcohol regulation in the United States. It begins with an exploration of the legislative and judicial historical backgrounds of the regulation of intoxicating liquors. This note next provides an overview of the current regulatory scheme for the distribution of alcohol. It then analyzes a proposed ulterior motive for this patchwork of laws and reexamines the statutory and constitutional language that allegedly supports the current regulation. Finally, this Note proposes various remedies to this maze of state laws preventing free trade and burdening the economy

Phase Diagram and Quantum Order by Disorder in the Kitaev K1K_1-K2K_2 Honeycomb Magnet

We show that the topological Kitaev spin liquid on the honeycomb lattice is extremely fragile against the second-neighbor Kitaev coupling $K_2$, which has recently been shown to be the dominant perturbation away from the nearest-neighbor model in iridate Na$_2$IrO$_3$, and may also play a role in $\alpha$-RuCl$_3$ and Li$_2$IrO$_3$. This coupling naturally explains the zigzag ordering (without introducing unrealistically large longer-range Heisenberg exchange terms) and the special entanglement between real and spin space observed recently in Na$_2$IrO$_3$. Moreover, the minimal $K_1$-$K_2$ model that we present here holds the unique property that the classical and quantum phase diagrams and their respective order-by-disorder mechanisms are qualitatively different due to the fundamentally different symmetries of the classical and quantum counterparts.Comment: Published version (9+13 pages

Relocating, Downsizing, and Merging: Inventory Projects to Manage Change in a Digital Environment

With a new library location and newly created librarian position, the Health Sciences Library (HSL) of the University Libraries at the University of Memphis needed a comprehensive inventory. Having previously completed a small-scale inventory, technical services librarians led the project to assess the HSL collection before the newly hired librarian arrived. Beyond ensuring that all materials were in the collection and reflected properly in the integrated library system (ILS), an up-to- date inventory asserts the value of the physical collections to a variety of campus stakeholders. This chapter offers ideas for working collaboratively with personnel across library departments to conduct and complete a major technical services project

A study of academic resilience among children at risk of poverty in Ireland

Despite the strong link between socioeconomic status and academic achievement, some children at risk of poverty have been found to be successful in school. The available literature calls these children resilient. The phenomenon of resilience, in the field of education and elsewhere, has become more popular in recent times both as a research topic and an area of policy interest. However, while many studies examine specific aspects of academic resilience few bring together the resilience literature in a more comprehensive way to develop and test a holistic model of academic resilience. This study aims to develop a multi-dimensional model of academic resilience based on the literature and to examine if the same predictors of academic resilience (and the associated processes between them) apply at difference time points in a child’s development. Using data from the nine- and 13-year-old child cohorts of the Growing Up in Ireland study, logistic regression analyses were used to identify unique predictors of academic resilience from seven key areas of a child’s life associated with academic resilience: background characteristics; relationships with family, teachers and peers; educational expectations; attitudes towards school; parental involvement in their child’s education; engagement and meaningful participation; and the personal attributes of the child. The pathways between these predictors were then tested separately for each age group, using structural equation modelling. Results indicate that, while there is partial support for the model of academic resilience at age 13, the results are inconclusive at age nine. A test of a nested model supported the hypothesis that a child’s psychological adjustment, intellectual self-concept and gender were all directly related to academic resilience at age 13, while a similar model at age nine was not supported by the data. The findings are considered in terms of their relevance for policy. Limitations of the current study and areas for future research are also addressed

Representations of Indigenous Cultures in Today’s Museums and Impacts on Cultural Tourists

This paper is an investigation of the ways in which museums collaborate with the minority groups represented in their exhibits, as well as the pitfalls of representation without collaboration and the impact this has on the museum-going tourist\u27s experience