Where Are the Jobs that Take People Out of Poverty in Brazil?

In Brazil?s urban areas, job opportunities determine economic mobility and poverty. But not every job provides enough earnings to take families out of poverty. Jobs for poor workers are scarce in the formal sector. To improve their income, the poor resort to informal, unregistered jobs that are highly vulnerable. The contribution of informal jobs to poverty reduction should not be neglected.Where Are the Jobs that Take People Out of Poverty in Brazil?

Do Changes in the Labour Market Take Families out of Poverty? Determinants of Exiting Poverty in Brazilian Metropolitan Regions

The objective of this Working Paper is to estimate the likelihood of the exit of households from poverty and identify the determinants of this transition, taking into consideration the length of time that households have spent in poverty. Our focus is to analyze whether short-term changes in the labour market affect the probability of exiting or remaining in poverty. We use the only panel data that are available in Brazil for carrying out this kind of analysis: the Monthly Employment Survey (PME), which was conducted from March 2002 to May 2007. However, since this survey follows households for a very short period of time, we had to adopt estimation techniques that control for cases of right- and left-censoring. The most important results in this Working Paper are: 1) the longer the spell of poverty, the lower the probability of exiting it; 2) households that entered into poverty with zero income (namely, their poverty income gap was equal to one) are not those with the lowest probability of exiting this condition; 3) changes in the unemployment rate of household members do not directly affect the duration of the household?s poverty; and 4) the increase of the average wage of informal workers has a significant, positive effect on the probability of the exit of poor households from poverty.Duration of poverty spell; Poverty exit; Labour market; Survival models for left-censored data.

Fluctuations and persistence in poverty: a transient-chronic decomposition model for pseudo-panel data

Although many studies addressed poverty issues, very few of then did analyze the transient or persistent nature of this phenomenon. Encouraged by this lack of dynamic poverty analyses, the objective of this paper is to evaluate which features determine the relative position and the dynamics of the destitution state of the individual. Due to the scarcity of panel surveys in Brazil, it was used a pseudo-panel obtained from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD/IBGE) database in this study. With these data, the state permanence and the state transience probabilities were estimated in a Markov matrix with the application of a bivariate probit model with endogenous switching for grouped data. It was chosen as the welfare indicator the per capita household income, which was analyzed in relation to a relative poverty line. Moreover, in order to verify the sensibility of the parameters estimated in the econometric analysis, distinct poverty lines were used and also different assumptions of household scale economies and of intrahousehold relative costs were made. The transient-chronic analysis is based on the distinction between stationary and transient components of intertemporal propensity to poverty. The results enabled to identify which groups in the population were especially sensitive to the chronic and to the transient types of poverty.chronic poverty; transient poverty; state persistence; state transition; endogenous switching probit model; pseudo-panel; Brazil

On the Viability of Minimal Neutrinophilic Two-Higgs-Doublet Models

We study the constraints that electroweak precision data can impose, after the discovery of the Higgs boson by the LHC, on neutrinophilic two-Higgs-doublet models which comprise one extra $SU(2)\times U(1)$ doublet and a new symmetry, namely a spontaneously broken $\mathbb{Z}_2$ or a softly broken global $U(1)$. In these models the extra Higgs doublet, via its very small vacuum expectation value, is the sole responsible for neutrino masses. We find that the model with a $\mathbb{Z}_2$ symmetry is basically ruled out by electroweak precision data, even if the model is slightly extended to include extra right-handed neutrinos, due to the presence of a very light scalar. While the other model is still perfectly viable, the parameter space is considerably constrained by current data, specially by the $T$ parameter. In particular, the new charged and neutral scalars must have very similar masses.Comment: 22 pages, 3 figures, references and comments added, conclusions unchanged, matches version to appear in JHE

Quels sont les emplois qui permettent à la population de sortir de la pauvreté au Brésil ?

Quels sont les emplois qui permettent à la population de sortir de la pauvreté au Brésil ?

A closure for the Master Equation starting from the Dynamic Cavity Method

We consider classical spin systems evolving in continuous time with interactions given by a locally tree-like graph. Several approximate analysis methods have earlier been reported based on the idea of Belief Propagation / cavity method. We introduce a new such method which can be derived in a more systematic manner, and which performs better on several important classes of problems.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2205.0075