Comparing methods for determining landslide early warning thresholds: potential use of non-triggering rainfall for locations with scarce landslide data availability

AbstractRainfall intensity-duration landslide-triggering thresholds have become widespread for the development of landslide early warning systems. Thresholds can be in principle determined using rainfall event datasets of three types: (a) rainfall events associated with landslides (triggering rainfall) only, (b) rainfall events not associated with landslides (non-triggering rainfall) only, (c) both triggering and non-triggering rainfall. In this paper, through Monte Carlo simulation, we compare these three possible approaches based on the following statistical properties: robustness, sampling variation, and performance. It is found that methods based only on triggering rainfall can be the worst with respect to those three investigated properties. Methods based on both triggering and non-triggering rainfall perform the best, as they could be built to provide the best trade-off between correct and wrong predictions; they are also robust, but still require a quite large sample to sufficiently limit the sampling variation of the threshold parameters. On the other side, methods based on non-triggering rainfall only, which are mostly overlooked in the literature, imply good robustness and low sampling variation, and performances that can often be acceptable and better than thresholds derived from only triggering events. To use solely triggering rainfall—which is the most common practice in the literature—yields to thresholds with the worse statistical properties, except when there is a clear separation between triggering and non-triggering events. Based on these results, it can be stated that methods based only on non-triggering rainfall deserve wider attention. Methods for threshold identification based on only non-triggering rainfall may have the practical advantage that can be in principle used where limited information on landslide occurrence is available (newly instrumented areas). The fact that relatively large samples (about 200 landslides events) are needed for a sufficiently precise estimation of threshold parameters when using triggering rainfall suggests that threshold determination in future applications may start from identifying thresholds from non-triggering events only, and then move to methods considering also the triggering events as landslide information starts to become more available

Entanglement and the Thermodynamic Arrow of Time

We discuss quantum entanglement in the context of the thermodynamic arrow of time. We review the role of correlations in entropy-decreasing events and prove that the occurrence of a transformation between two thermodynamic states constitutes a new type of entanglement witness, one not defined as a separating plane in state space between separable and entangled states, but as a physical process dependent on the local initial properties of the states. Extending work by Partovi, we consider a general entangled multipartite system that allows large reversals of the thermodynamic arrow of time. We describe a hierarchy of arrows that arises from the different correlations allowed in a quantum state and examine these features in the context of Maxwell's Demon. We examine in detail the case of three qubits, and also propose some simple experimental demonstrations possible with small numbers of qubits.Comment: 10 pages with 9 figure

Influence of uncertain identification of triggering rainfall on the assessment of landslide early warning thresholds

Abstract. Uncertainty in rainfall datasets and landslide inventories is known to have negative impacts on the assessment of landslide-triggering thresholds. In this paper, we perform a quantitative analysis of the impacts of uncertain knowledge of landslide initiation instants on the assessment of rainfall intensity–duration landslide early warning thresholds. The analysis is based on a synthetic database of rainfall and landslide information, generated by coupling a stochastic rainfall generator and a physically based hydrological and slope stability model, and is therefore error-free in terms of knowledge of triggering instants. This dataset is then perturbed according to hypothetical reporting scenarios that allow simulation of possible errors in landslide-triggering instants as retrieved from historical archives. The impact of these errors is analysed jointly using different criteria to single out rainfall events from a continuous series and two typical temporal aggregations of rainfall (hourly and daily). The analysis shows that the impacts of the above uncertainty sources can be significant, especially when errors exceed 1 day or the actual instants follow the erroneous ones. Errors generally lead to underestimated thresholds, i.e. lower than those that would be obtained from an error-free dataset. Potentially, the amount of the underestimation can be enough to induce an excessive number of false positives, hence limiting possible landslide mitigation benefits. Moreover, the uncertain knowledge of triggering rainfall limits the possibility to set up links between thresholds and physio-geographical factors

Worry about Climate Change and Urban Flooding Risk Preparedness in Southern Italy: A Survey in the Simeto River Valley (Sicily, Italy)

Intensive urbanization and related increase of impervious surfaces, causes negative impacts on the hydrological cycle, amplifying the risk of urban floods. These impacts can get even worse due to potential climate change impacts. The urban areas of the Simeto River Valley (SRV), the largest river valley in Sicily (Italy), have been repeatedly hit by intense rainfall events in the last decades that lead to urban flooding, causing several damages and, in some instances, threats to population. In this paper, we present the results of a 10-question survey on climate change and risk perception in 11 municipalities of the SRV carried out within the activities of the LIFE project SimetoRES, which allowed to collect 1143 feedbacks from the residents. The survey investigated: (a) the level of worry about climate change in relation to extreme storms, (b) elements of urban flooding risk preparedness: the direct experience of the residents during heavy rain events, their trust in a civil protection regional alert system, and their knowledge of the correct behavior in case of flood, and (c) the willingness of citizens to implement sustainable drainage actions for climate change adaptation in their own municipality and real estates. The results show that more than 52% of citizens has inadequate knowledge of the correct behavior during flooding events and only 30% of them feel responsible for mitigation of flooding risk. There is a modest willingness by the population to support the construction of sustainable urban drainage infrastructures. A statistical cross-analysis of the answers to the different questions, based on contingency matrices and conditional frequencies, has shown that a greater worry about climate change has no significant impact either on the behavior of people in dangerous situations occurring during flooding events or on the willingness to support financially sustainable solutions. These results suggest that to build a higher worry about climate change and related urban flooding risk is not sufficient to have better preparedness, and that more direct educative actions are necessary in the area

Manifestations of quantum holonomy in interferometry

Abelian and non-Abelian geometric phases, known as quantum holonomies, have attracted considerable attention in the past. Here, we show that it is possible to associate nonequivalent holonomies to discrete sequences of subspaces in a Hilbert space. We consider two such holonomies that arise naturally in interferometer settings. For sequences approximating smooth paths in the base (Grassmann) manifold, these holonomies both approach the standard holonomy. In the one-dimensional case the two types of holonomies are Abelian and coincide with Pancharatnam's geometric phase factor. The theory is illustrated with a model example of projective measurements involving angular momentum coherent states.Comment: Some changes, journal reference adde

Cosmic No Hair for Braneworlds with a Bulk Dilaton Field

Braneworld cosmology supported by a bulk scalar field with an exponential potential is developed. A general class of separable backgrounds for both single and two-brane systems is derived, where the bulk metric components are given by products of world-volume and bulk coordinates and the world-volumes represent any anisotropic and inhomogeneous solution to an effective four-dimensional Brans-Dicke theory of gravity. We deduce a cosmic no hair theorem for all ever expanding, spatially homogeneous Bianchi world-volumes and find that the spatially flat and isotropic inflationary scaling solution represents a late-time attractor when the bulk potential is sufficiently flat. The dependence of this result on the separable nature of the bulk metric is investigated by applying the techniques of Hamilton-Jacobi theory to five-dimensional Einstein gravity. We employ the spatial gradient expansion method to determine the asymptotic form of the bulk metric up to third-order in spatial gradients. It is found that the condition for the separable form of the metric to represent the attractor of the system is precisely the same as that for the four-dimensional world-volume to isotropize. We also derive the fourth-order contribution to the Hamilton-Jacobi generating functional. Finally, we conclude by placing our results within the context of the holographic approach to braneworld cosmology.Comment: 13 pages, uses RevTeX

Quantum codewords contradict local realism

Quantum codewords are highly entangled combinations of two-state systems. The standard assumptions of local realism lead to logical contradictions similar to those found by Bell, Kochen and Specker, Greenberger, Horne and Zeilinger, and Mermin. The new contradictions have some noteworthy features that did not appear in the older ones.Comment: 9 pages LaTeX, 1 figur

Hiding bits in Bell states

We present a scheme for hiding bits in Bell states that is secure even when the sharers Alice and Bob are allowed to carry out local quantum operations and classical communication. We prove that the information that Alice and Bob can gain about a hidden bit is exponentially small in $n$, the number of qubits in each share, and can be made arbitrarily small for hiding multiple bits. We indicate an alternative efficient low-entanglement method for preparing the shared quantum states. We discuss how our scheme can be implemented using present-day quantum optics.Comment: 4 pages RevTex, 1 figure, various small changes and additional paragraph on optics implementatio

Experimental Implementation of the Quantum Baker's Map

This paper reports on the experimental implementation of the quantum baker's map via a three bit nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) quantum information processor. The experiments tested the sensitivity of the quantum chaotic map to perturbations. In the first experiment, the map was iterated forward and then backwards to provide benchmarks for intrinsic errors and decoherence. In the second set of experiments, the least significant qubit was perturbed in between the iterations to test the sensitivity of the quantum chaotic map to applied perturbations. These experiments are used to investigate previous predicted properties of quantum chaotic dynamics.Comment: submitted to PR

Simple computer model for the quantum Zeno effect

This paper presents a simple model for repeated measurement of a quantum system: the evolution of a free particle, simulated by discretising the particle's position. This model is easily simulated by computer and provides a useful arena to investigate the effects of measurement upon dynamics, in particular the slowing of evolution due to measurement (the `quantum Zeno effect'). The results of this simulation are discussed for two rather different sorts of measurement process, both of which are (simplified forms of) measurements used in previous simulations of position measurement. A number of interesting results due to measurement are found, and the investigation casts some light on previous disagreements about the presence or absence of the Zeno effect.Comment: REVTeX; 12 pages including 11 figures; figures reformatted to be more readable; some small changes made to the description of the mode