349 research outputs found

    Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change

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    Fire activity in Australia is strongly affected by high inter-annual climate variability and extremes. Through changes in the climate, anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter fire dynamics. Here we compile satellite (19 and 32 years) and ground-based (90 years) burned area datasets, climate and weather observations, and simulated fuel loads for Australian forests. Burned area in Australia’s forests shows a linear positive annual trend but an exponential increase during autumn and winter. The mean number of years since the last fire has decreased consecutively in each of the past four decades, while the frequency of forest megafire years (>1 Mha burned) has markedly increased since 2000. The increase in forest burned area is consistent with increasingly more dangerous fire weather conditions, increased risk factors associated with pyroconvection, including fire-generated thunderstorms, and increased ignitions from dry lightning, all associated to varying degrees with anthropogenic climate change

    Young adult outcomes associated with teen pregnancy among high-risk girls in a randomized controlled trial of Multidimensional Treatment Foster Care

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    Teen pregnancy is associated with a host of deleterious outcomes for girls, such as drug use and poor parenting. Thus, reducing teen pregnancy rates could improve long-term developmental outcomes for girls, including adjustment during young adulthood. Based on the positive effects of Multidimensional Treatment Foster Care (MTFC) relative to group care (GC) in a study of adolescent girls (significantly fewer pregnancies reported in the 2-year follow-up for MTFC girls), the present study followed this sample into young adulthood (approximately 7 years post-baseline) to examine the effects of adolescent pregnancy on young adult substance use and pregnancy-related outcomes. All participants were randomly assigned to MTFC (N = 81) or GC (N = 85) as adolescents as part of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). Results from logistic regression analyses indicated that becoming pregnant during the 2-year follow-up was significantly related to illicit drug use, miscarriage from a new pregnancy, and child welfare involvement 7 years post-baseline. In addition, baseline marijuana use predicted marijuana use at 7 years post-baseline. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC

    “I h 8 u”: Findings from a five-year study of text and e-mail bullying

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    Copyright @ 2010 British Educational Research Association. The final version of this article is available at the link below.This study charts reports of nasty or threatening text and e-mail messages received by students in academic years 7 and 8 (11-13 years of age) attending 13 secondary schools in the North of England between 2002-2006. Annual surveys were undertaken on behalf of the local education authority (LEA) to monitor bullying. Results indicated that, over five years, the number of pupils receiving one or more nasty or threatening text messages or e-mails increased significantly, particularly among girls. However, receipt of frequent nasty or threatening text and e-mail messages remained relatively stable. For boys, being a victim of direct-physical bullying was associated with receiving nasty or threatening text and e-mail messages; for girls it was being unpopular among peers. Boys received more hate-related messages and girls were primarily the victims of name-calling, Findings are discussed with respect to theoretical and policy developments, and recommendations for future research are offered

    Genomic epidemiology of Mycobacterium bovis infection in sympatric badger and cattle populations in Northern Ireland

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    Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is a costly, epidemiologically complex, multi-host, endemic disease. Lack of understanding of transmission dynamics may undermine eradication efforts. Pathogen whole-genome sequencing improves epidemiological inferences, providing a means to determine the relative importance of inter- and intra-species host transmission for disease persistence. We sequenced an exceptional data set of 619 Mycobacterium bovis isolates from badgers and cattle in a 100 km2 bTB 'hotspot' in Northern Ireland. Historical molecular subtyping data permitted the targeting of an endemic pathogen lineage, whose long-term persistence provided a unique opportunity to study disease transmission dynamics in unparalleled detail. Additionally, to assess whether badger population genetic structure was associated with the spatial distribution of pathogen genetic diversity, we microsatellite genotyped hair samples from 769 badgers trapped in this area. Birth death models and TransPhylo analyses indicated that cattle were likely driving the local epidemic, with transmission from cattle to badgers being more common than badger to cattle. Furthermore, the presence of significant badger population genetic structure in the landscape was not associated with the spatial distribution of M. bovis genetic diversity, suggesting that badger-to-badger transmission is not playing a major role in transmission dynamics. Our data were consistent with badgers playing a smaller role in transmission of M. bovis infection in this study site, compared to cattle. We hypothesize, however, that this minor role may still be important for persistence. Comparison to other areas suggests that M. bovis transmission dynamics are likely to be context dependent, with the role of wildlife being difficult to generalize.ISSN:2057-585

    A systematic review of climate change science relevant to Australian design flood estimation

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    In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of planning, infrastructure design, setting of insurance premiums, and emergency response planning. Under stationary assumptions, flood guidance and the methods used in design flood estimation are firmly established in practice and mature in their theoretical foundations, but under climate change, guidance is still in its infancy. Human-caused climate change is influencing factors that contribute to flood risk such as rainfall extremes and soil moisture, and there is a need for updated flood guidance. However, a barrier to updating flood guidance is the translation of the science into practical application. For example, most science pertaining to historical changes to flood risk focuses on examining trends in annual maximum flood events or the application of non-stationary flood frequency analysis. Although this science is valuable, in practice, design flood estimation focuses on exceedance probabilities much rarer than annual maximum events, such as the 1 % annual exceedance probability event or even rarer, using rainfall-based procedures, at locations where there are few to no observations of streamflow. Here, we perform a systematic review to summarize the state-of-the-art understanding of the impact of climate change on design flood estimation in the Australian context, while also drawing on international literature. In addition, a meta-analysis, whereby results from multiple studies are combined, is conducted for extreme rainfall to provide quantitative estimates of possible future changes. This information is described in the context of contemporary design flood estimation practice to facilitate the inclusion of climate science into design flood estimation practice.</p

    Subseasonal to Seasonal Climate Forecasts Provide the Backbone of a Near-Real-Time Event Explainer Service

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    The Bureau of Meteorology serves the Australian community to reduce its climate risk and is developing a suite of tools to explain the drivers of extreme events. Dynamical sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts form the backbone of the service, potentially enabling it to be run in near real time

    Stability in Bullying and Victimization and its Association with Social Adjustment in Childhood and Adolescence

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    This study examined the concurrent and longitudinal associations between stability in bullying and victimization, and social adjustment in childhood and adolescence. Participants were 189 girls and 328 boys who were studied in primary school and in secondary school. The mean age of the participants was 11.1 years in primary school and 14.1 years in secondary school. The measures consisted of peer reported social and personal characteristics. Children who bullied in childhood and adolescence were less liked and more disliked in childhood, and more aggressive and disruptive both in childhood and adolescence, than children who bullied only in childhood or adolescence. Children who bullied or who were victimized only in childhood did not differ largely in adolescence from the children that were never bullies or victims. Children who were victimized in adolescence closely resembled those who were victimized in childhood and adolescence in terms of being liked or disliked, being nominated as a friend, and shyness. The study stresses the need to distinguish between stable and transient bullies and victims
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