Handling protest responses in contingent valuation surveys

OBJECTIVES: Protest responses, whereby respondents refuse to state the value they place on the health gain, are commonly encountered in contingent valuation (CV) studies, and they tend to be excluded from analyses. Such an approach will be biased if protesters differ from non-protesters on characteristics that predict their responses. The Heckman selection model has been commonly used to adjust for protesters, but its underlying assumptions may be implausible in this context. We present a multiple imputation (MI) approach to appropriately address protest responses in CV studies, and compare it with the Heckman selection model. METHODS: This study exploits data from the multinational EuroVaQ study, which surveyed respondents' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY). Here, our simulation study assesses the relative performance of MI and Heckman selection models across different realistic settings grounded in the EuroVaQ study, including scenarios with different proportions of missing data and non-response mechanisms. We then illustrate the methods in the EuroVaQ study for estimating mean WTP for a QALY gain. RESULTS: We find that MI provides lower bias and mean squared error compared with the Heckman approach across all considered scenarios. The simulations suggest that the Heckman approach can lead to considerable underestimation or overestimation of mean WTP due to violations in the normality assumption, even after log-transforming the WTP responses. The case study illustrates that protesters are associated with a lower mean WTP for a QALY gain compared with non-protesters, but that the results differ according to method for handling protesters. CONCLUSIONS: MI is an appropriate method for addressing protest responses in CV studies

Priming Analogical Reasoning with False Memories

Like true memories, false memories are capable of priming answers to insight-based problems. Recent research has attempted to extend this paradigm to more advanced problem-solving tasks, including those involving verbal analogical reasoning. However, these experiments are constrained inasmuch as problem solutions could be generated via spreading activation mechanisms (much like false memories themselves) rather than using complex reasoning processes. In three experiments we examined false memory priming of complex analogical reasoning tasks in the absence of simple semantic associations. In Experiment 1, we demonstrated the robustness of false memory priming in analogical reasoning when backward associative strength among the problem terms was eliminated. In Experiments 2a and 2b, we extended these findings by demonstrating priming on newly created homonym analogies that can only be solved by inhibiting semantic associations within the analogy. Overall, the findings of the present experiments provide evidence that the efficacy of false memory priming extends to complex analogical reasoning problems

Remarkable Rates of Lightning Strike Mortality in Malawi

Livingstone's second mission site on the shore of Lake Malawi suffers very high rates of consequential lightning strikes. Comprehensive interviewing of victims and their relatives in seven Traditional Authorities in Nkhata Bay District, Malawi revealed that the annual rate of consequential strikes was 419/million, more than six times higher than that in other developing countries; the rate of deaths from lightning was 84/million/year, 5.4 times greater than the highest ever recorded. These remarkable figures reveal that lightning constitutes a significant stochastic source of mortality with potential life history consequences, but it should not deflect attention away from the more prominent causes of mortality in this rural area

Genetic Covariance Structure of Reading, Intelligence and Memory in Children

This study investigates the genetic relationship among reading performance, IQ, verbal and visuospatial working memory (WM) and short-term memory (STM) in a sample of 112, 9-year-old twin pairs and their older siblings. The relationship between reading performance and the other traits was explained by a common genetic factor for reading performance, IQ, WM and STM and a genetic factor that only influenced reading performance and verbal memory. Genetic variation explained 83% of the variation in reading performance; most of this genetic variance was explained by variation in IQ and memory performance. We hypothesize, based on these results, that children with reading problems possibly can be divided into three groups: (1) children low in IQ and with reading problems; (2) children with average IQ but a STM deficit and with reading problems; (3) children with low IQ and STM deficits; this group may experience more reading problems than the other two

Truth or precision? Some reflections on the economists’ failure to predict the financial crisis

The failure of professional economic forecasters to predict the financial crises has led many to question the credibility of modern economics as a reliable foundation for economic policy. If economists were unable to foresee so big a crisis, how can they be trusted to cure or prevent it? Several accounts of this failure exist. The paper offers a tentative answer based on the lessons that may be drawn from the wisdom of a short list of past and present economists: Hayek, Neville Keynes, Mankiw, Tinbergen, Maynard Keynes and Lucas. The glue to keep such an odd bunch together is the distinction between truth and precision provided by science historian Ted Porter

The power of comparative and developmental studies for mouse models of Down syndrome

Since the genetic basis for Down syndrome (DS) was described, understanding the causative relationship between genes at dosage imbalance and phenotypes associated with DS has been a principal goal of researchers studying trisomy 21 (Ts21). Though inferences to the gene-phenotype relationship in humans have been made, evidence linking a specific gene or region to a particular congenital phenotype has been limited. To further understand the genetic basis for DS phenotypes, mouse models with three copies of human chromosome 21 (Hsa21) orthologs have been developed. Mouse models offer access to every tissue at each stage of development, opportunity to manipulate genetic content, and ability to precisely quantify phenotypes. Numerous approaches to recreate trisomic composition and analyze phenotypes similar to DS have resulted in diverse trisomic mouse models. A murine intraspecies comparative analysis of different genetic models of Ts21 and specific DS phenotypes reveals the complexity of trisomy and important considerations to understand the etiology of and strategies for amelioration or prevention of trisomic phenotypes. By analyzing individual phenotypes in different mouse models throughout development, such as neurologic, craniofacial, and cardiovascular abnormalities, greater insight into the gene-phenotype relationship has been demonstrated. In this review we discuss how phenotype-based comparisons between DS mouse models have been useful in analyzing the relationship of trisomy and DS phenotypes

A review of trisomy X (47,XXX)

Trisomy X is a sex chromosome anomaly with a variable phenotype caused by the presence of an extra X chromosome in females (47,XXX instead of 46,XX). It is the most common female chromosomal abnormality, occurring in approximately 1 in 1,000 female births. As some individuals are only mildly affected or asymptomatic, it is estimated that only 10% of individuals with trisomy X are actually diagnosed. The most common physical features include tall stature, epicanthal folds, hypotonia and clinodactyly. Seizures, renal and genitourinary abnormalities, and premature ovarian failure (POF) can also be associated findings. Children with trisomy X have higher rates of motor and speech delays, with an increased risk of cognitive deficits and learning disabilities in the school-age years. Psychological features including attention deficits, mood disorders (anxiety and depression), and other psychological disorders are also more common than in the general population. Trisomy X most commonly occurs as a result of nondisjunction during meiosis, although postzygotic nondisjunction occurs in approximately 20% of cases. The risk of trisomy X increases with advanced maternal age. The phenotype in trisomy X is hypothesized to result from overexpression of genes that escape X-inactivation, but genotype-phenotype relationships remain to be defined. Diagnosis during the prenatal period by amniocentesis or chorionic villi sampling is common. Indications for postnatal diagnoses most commonly include developmental delays or hypotonia, learning disabilities, emotional or behavioral difficulties, or POF. Differential diagnosis prior to definitive karyotype results includes fragile X, tetrasomy X, pentasomy X, and Turner syndrome mosaicism. Genetic counseling is recommended. Patients diagnosed in the prenatal period should be followed closely for developmental delays so that early intervention therapies can be implemented as needed. School-age children and adolescents benefit from a psychological evaluation with an emphasis on identifying and developing an intervention plan for problems in cognitive/academic skills, language, and/or social-emotional development. Adolescents and adult women presenting with late menarche, menstrual irregularities, or fertility problems should be evaluated for POF. Patients should be referred to support organizations to receive individual and family support. The prognosis is variable, depending on the severity of the manifestations and on the quality and timing of treatment

Development and validation of the Arizona Cognitive Test Battery for Down syndrome

Neurocognitive assessment in individuals with intellectual disabilities requires a well-validated test battery. To meet this need, the Arizona Cognitive Test Battery (ACTB) has been developed specifically to assess the cognitive phenotype in Down syndrome (DS). The ACTB includes neuropsychological assessments chosen to 1) assess a range of skills, 2) be non-verbal so as to not confound the neuropsychological assessment with language demands, 3) have distributional properties appropriate for research studies to identify genetic modifiers of variation, 4) show sensitivity to within and between sample differences, 5) have specific correlates with brain function, and 6) be applicable to a wide age range and across contexts. The ACTB includes tests of general cognitive ability and prefrontal, hippocampal and cerebellar function. These tasks were drawn from the Cambridge Neuropsychological Testing Automated Battery (CANTAB) and other established paradigms. Alongside the cognitive testing battery we administered benchmark and parent-report assessments of cognition and behavior. Individuals with DS (n = 74, ages 7–38 years) and mental age (MA) matched controls (n = 50, ages 3–8 years) were tested across 3 sites. A subsample of these groups were used for between-group comparisons, including 55 individuals with DS and 36 mental age matched controls. The ACTB allows for low floor performance levels and participant loss. Floor effects were greater in younger children. Individuals with DS were impaired on a number ACTB tests in comparison to a MA-matched sample, with some areas of spared ability, particularly on tests requiring extensive motor coordination. Battery measures correlated with parent report of behavior and development. The ACTB provided consistent results across contexts, including home vs. lab visits, cross-site, and among individuals with a wide range of socio-economic backgrounds and differences in ethnicity. The ACTB will be useful in a range of outcome studies, including clinical trials and the identification of important genetic components of cognitive disability

Increased male reproductive success in Ts65Dn “Down syndrome” mice

The Ts65Dn mouse is trisomic for orthologs of about half the genes on Hsa21. A number of phenotypes in these trisomic mice parallel those in humans with trisomy 21 (Down syndrome), including cognitive deficits due to hippocampal malfunction that are sufficiently similar to human that “therapies” developed in Ts65Dn mice are making their way to human clinical trials. However, the impact of the model is limited by availability. Ts65Dn cannot be completely inbred and males are generally considered to be sterile. Females have few, small litters and they exhibit poor care of offspring, frequently abandoning entire litters. Here we report identification and selective breeding of rare fertile males from two working colonies of Ts65Dn mice. Trisomic offspring can be propagated by natural matings or by in vitro fertilization (IVF) to produce large cohorts of closely related siblings. The use of a robust euploid strain as recipients of fertilized embryos in IVF or as the female in natural matings greatly improves husbandry. Extra zygotes cultured to the blastocyst stage were used to create trisomic and euploid embryonic stem (ES) cells from littermates. We developed parameters for cryopreserving sperm from Ts65Dn males and used it to produce trisomic offspring by IVF. Use of cryopreserved sperm provides additional flexibility in the choice of oocyte donors from different genetic backgrounds, facilitating rapid production of complex crosses. This approach greatly increases the power of this important trisomic model to interrogate modifying effects of trisomic or disomic genes that contribute to trisomic phenotypes