Impact of Missing Data for Body Mass Index in an Epidemiologic Study

To assess the potential impact of missing data on body mass index (BMI) on the association between prepregnancy obesity and specific birth defects

Detection of Pelvic Inflammatory Disease: Development of an Automated Case-Finding Algorithm Using Administrative Data

ICD-9 codes are conventionally used to identify pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) from administrative data for surveillance purposes. This approach may include non-PID cases. To refine PID case identification among women with ICD-9 codes suggestive of PID, a case-finding algorithm was developed using additional variables. Potential PID cases were identified among women aged 15–44 years at Group Health (GH) and Kaiser Permanente Colorado (KPCO) and verified by medical record review. A classification and regression tree analysis was used to develop the algorithm at GH; validation occurred at KPCO. The positive predictive value (PPV) for using ICD-9 codes alone to identify clinical PID cases was 79%. The algorithm identified PID appropriate treatment and age 15–25 years as predictors. Algorithm sensitivity (GH = 96.4%; KPCO = 90.3%) and PPV (GH = 86.9%; KPCO = 84.5%) were high, but specificity was poor (GH = 45.9%; KPCO = 37.0%). In GH, the algorithm offered a practical alternative to medical record review to further improve PID case identification

"Toward a Clearer Definition of Confounding" Revisited With Directed Acyclic Graphs

In a 1993 paper (Am J Epidemiol. 1993;137(1):1–8), Weinberg considered whether a variable that is associated with the outcome and is affected by exposure but is not an intermediate variable between exposure and outcome should be considered a confounder in etiologic studies. As an example, she examined the common practice of adjusting for history of spontaneous abortion when estimating the effect of an exposure on the risk of spontaneous abortion. She showed algebraically that such an adjustment could substantially bias the results even though history of spontaneous abortion would meet some definitions of a confounder. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) were introduced into epidemiology several years later as a tool with which to identify confounders. The authors now revisit Weinberg's paper using DAGs to represent scenarios that arise from her original assumptions. DAG theory is consistent with Weinberg's finding that adjusting for history of spontaneous abortion introduces bias in her original scenario. In the authors' examples, treating history of spontaneous abortion as a confounder introduces bias if it is a descendant of the exposure and is associated with the outcome conditional on exposure or is a child of a collider on a relevant undirected path. Thoughtful DAG analyses require clear research questions but are easily modified for examining different causal assumptions that may affect confounder assessment

Prenatal exposure to mixtures of persistent endocrine disrupting chemicals and early menarche in a population-based cohort of British girls

Exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) is ubiquitous. EDC exposure, especially during critical periods of development like the prenatal window, may interfere with the body’s endocrine system, which can affect growth and developmental outcomes such as puberty. Most studies have examined one EDC at a time in relation to disease; however, humans are exposed to many EDCs. By studying mixtures, the human experience can be more closely replicated. We investigated the association of prenatal exposure to persistent EDCs (poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs)) as mixtures with early menarche among female offspring in a nested case-control study within the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) recruited in the United Kingdom in 1991–1992. Concentrations of 52 EDCs were quantified in maternal serum samples collected during pregnancy. Daughter’s age at menarche was ascertained through mailed questionnaires sent annually. We used repeated holdout weighted quantile sum (WQS) regression and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) to examine the association between prenatal exposure to multiple EDCs and early menarche (<11.5 (n = 218) vs. ≥11.5 years (n = 230)) for each chemical class separately (PFAS, PCBs, and OCPs) and for all three classes combined. Models adjusted for maternal age at menarche, maternal education, parity, pre-pregnancy body mass index, maternal age, prenatal smoking, and gestational week at sample collection. Mixture models showed null associations between prenatal exposure to EDC mixtures and early menarche. Using WQS regression, the odds ratio for early menarche for a one-decile increase in chemical concentrations for all three classes combined was 0.89 (95% CI: 0.76, 1.05); using BKMR, the odds ratio when all exposures were at the 60th percentile compared to the median was 0.98 (95% CI: 0.91, 1.05). Results suggest the overall effect of prenatal exposure to persistent EDC mixtures is not associated with early menarche

The association between gestational weight gain z-score and stillbirth: a case-control study

Background There is limited information on potentially modifiable risk factors for stillbirth, such as gestational weight gain (GWG). Our purpose was to explore the association between GWG and stillbirth using the GWG z−score. Methods We analyzed 479 stillbirths and 1601 live births from the Stillbirth Collaborative Research Network case−control study. Women with triplets or monochorionic twins were excluded from analysis. We evaluated the association between GWG z−score (modeled as a restricted cubic spline with knots at the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles) and stillbirth using multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations, adjusting for pre − pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and other confounders. In addition, we conducted analyses stratified by pre − pregnancy BMI category (normal weight, overweight, obese). Results Mean GWG was 18.95 (SD 17.6) lb. among mothers of stillbirths and 30.89 (SD 13.3) lb. among mothers of live births; mean GWG z−score was − 0.39 (SD 1.5) among mothers of cases and − 0.17 (SD 0.9) among control mothers. In adjusted analyses, the odds of stillbirth were elevated for women with very low GWG z−scores (e.g., adjusted odds ratio (aOR) and 95% Confidence Interval (CI) for z−score − 1.5 SD versus 0 SD: 1.52 (1.30, 1.78); aOR (95% CI) for z−score − 2.5 SD versus 0 SD: 2.36 (1.74, 3.20)). Results differed slightly by pre − pregnancy BMI. The odds of stillbirth were slightly elevated among women with overweight BMI and GWG z−scores ≥1 SD (e.g., aOR (95% CI) for z−score of 1.5 SD versus 0 SD: 1.84 (0.97, 3.50)). Conclusions GWG z−scores below − 1.5 SD are associated with increased odds of stillbirth

Referral and evaluation for kidney transplantation among patients with lupus nephritis-related end-stage kidney disease.

OBJECTIVE: For the majority of patients with lupus nephritis-related end-stage kidney disease (LN-ESKD), kidney transplant is associated with better outcomes than dialysis. Access to kidney transplant requires an initial referral to a transplant center and medical evaluation prior to waitlisting. The studys objective was to examine access to these early steps in the kidney transplant process among patients with LN-ESKD. METHODS: Adults who began treatment for ESKD in the Southeast, Northeast, New York, or Ohio River Valley U.S. regions from 1/1/2012 to 12/31/2019, followed through 6/30/2021, were identified from the United States Renal Data System. Referral and evaluation start data were collected from 28 of 48 transplant centers across these regions. The exposure was primary cause of ESKD (LN-ESKD vs other-ESKD). The outcomes were referral and evaluation start at a transplant center. Cox models quantified the association between LN-ESKD (vs other-ESKD) and referral and evaluation start. RESULTS: Among 192,318 patients initiating treatment for ESKD, 0.4% had LN-ESKD. Over half (58%) of LN-ESKD patients were referred before study end, and among those referred, 66% started the evaluation. In adjusted analyses, patients with LN-ESKD were referred (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.19) and started the transplant evaluation (HR: 1.13, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.28) at a higher rate than patients with other-ESKD. Among referred patients with LN-ESKD, the median time from ESKD start to referral was 2.9&nbsp;months (IQR: &lt;1 to 11.7&nbsp;months), which is similar to patients with other-ESKD (median 2.6&nbsp;months, IQR: &lt;1 to 8.8&nbsp;months). CONCLUSIONS: Among incident patients with ESKD, having a primary diagnosis of LN-ESKD versus other-ESKD is associated with higher rates of early transplant access outcomes. Despite this, patients with LN-ESKD (vs other-ESKD) are less likely to be preemptively referred (i.e., referred prior to ESKD start) for kidney transplant. While providers may no longer be delaying the early steps in the kidney transplantation process among this patient population, there is still room for improvement in the rates of preemptive referral. Access to kidney transplant referral prior to ESKD could result in increased transplant rates and better transplant outcomes for patients with LN-ESKD

Diabetes mellitus, smoking status, and rate of sputum culture conversion in patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: a cohort study from the country of Georgia.

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a risk factor for active tuberculosis (TB) but little is known about the effect of DM on culture conversion among patients with multidrug-resistant (MDR)-TB. The primary aim was to estimate the association between DM and rate of TB sputum culture conversion. A secondary objective was to estimate the association between DM and the risk of poor treatment outcomes among patients with MDR-TB.A cohort of all adult patients starting MDR-TB treatment in the country of Georgia between 2009-2011 was followed during second-line TB therapy. Cox proportional models were used to estimate the adjusted hazard rate of sputum culture conversion. Log-binomial regression models were used to estimate the cumulative risk of poor TB treatment outcome.Among 1,366 patients with sputum culture conversion information, 966 (70.7%) had culture conversion and the median time to conversion was 68 days (interquartile range 50-120). The rate of conversion was similar among patients with MDR-TB and DM (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.95, 95%CI 0.71-1.28) compared to patients with MDR-TB only. The rate of culture conversion was significantly less in patients that currently smoked (aHR 0.82, 95%CI 0.71-0.95), had low body mass index (aHR 0.71, 95%CI 0.59-0.84), second-line resistance (aHR 0.56, 95%CI 0.43-0.73), lung cavities (aHR 0.70, 95%CI 0.59-0.83) and with disseminated TB (aHR 0.75, 95%CI 0.62-0.90). The cumulative risk of poor treatment outcome was also similar among TB patients with and without DM (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 1.03, 95%CI 0.93-1.14).In adjusted analyses, DM did not impact culture conversion rates in a clinically meaningful way but smoking did