A new formulation of compartmental epidemic modelling for arbitrary distributions of incubation and removal times

The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are more flexible, yet do not allow for arbitrary distributions. We present a new formulation, focussing on the SEIR concept that allows to include general distributions of incubation and removal times. We compare the solution to two types of agent-based model simulations, a spatially homogeneous one where infection occurs by proximity, and a model on a scale-free network with varying clustering properties, where the infection between any two agents occurs via their link if it exists. We find good agreement in both cases. Furthermore a family of asymptotic solutions of the equations is found in terms of a logistic curve, which after a non-universal time shift, fits extremely well all the microdynamical simulations. The formulation allows for a simple numerical approach; software in Julia and Python is provided.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures. v2 matches published version: improved presentation (including title, abstract and references), results and conclusions unchange

Physical parameters of three field RR Lyrae stars

This work was partially supported by DGAPA–Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico through project IN104612.Stromgren uvby - beta photometry of the stars classified as RR Lyrae stars RU Piscium, SS Piscium and TU Ursae Majoris has been used to estimate their iron abundance, temperature, gravity and absolute magnitude. The stability of the pulsating period is discussed. The nature of SS Psc as a RRc or a HADS is addressed. The reddening of each star is estimated from the Stromgren colour indices and reddening sky maps. The results of three approaches to the determination of [Fe/H], T-eff and log(g) are discussed: Fourier light curve decomposition, the Preston Delta S index and the theoretical grids on the (b - y)(o) - c(10) plane.Peer reviewe

Controlled generation of large volumes of atmospheric clouds in a ground-based environmental chamber

Atmospheric clouds were generated in a 23,000 cubic meter environmental chamber as the first step in a two part study on the effects of contaminants on cloud formation. The generation procedure was modeled on the terrestrial generation mechanism so that naturally occurring microphysics mechanisms were operative in the cloud generation process. Temperature, altitude, liquid water content, and convective updraft velocity could be selected independently over the range of terrestrially realizable clouds. To provide cloud stability, a cotton muslin cylinder 29.3 meters in diameter and 24.2 meters high was erected within the chamber and continuously wetted with water at precisely the same temperature as the cloud. The improved instrumentation which permitted fast, precise, and continual measurements of cloud temperature and liquid water content is described

Off-Mass-Shell π\piN Scattering and pp→ppπ0pp \to pp \pi^0

We adapt the off-shell $\pi$N amplitude of the Tucson-Melbourne three-body force to the half-off-shell amplitude of the pion rescattering contribution to $pp \to pp \pi^0$ near threshold. This {\em pion} rescattering contribution, together with the impulse term, provides a good description of the data when the half-off-shell amplitude is linked to the phenomenological invariant amplitudes obtained from meson factory $\pi$N scattering data.Comment: 3 pages, contributed to STORRI99, Bloomington, Indiana, September 199