Land, history or modernization? Explaining ethnic fractionalization

Ethnic fractionalization (EF) is frequently used as an explanatory tool in models of economic development, civil war and public goods provision. However, if EF is endogenous to political and economic change, its utility for further research diminishes. This turns out not to be the case. This paper provides the first comprehensive model of EF as a dependent variable. It contributes new data on the founding date of the largest ethnic group in each state. It builds political and international variables into the analysis alongside historical and geoclimatic parameters. It extends previous work by testing models of politically relevant EF. In addition, this research interprets model results in light of competing theories of nationalism and political change. Results show that cross-national variation in EF is largely exogenous to modern politico-economic change. However, the data are inconclusive with respect to competing geoclimatic, historical institutional and modernist theories of ethnogenesis

Are Natural Disasters Good for Economic Growth?

Natural disasters plague the populations of many countries, and the international commu- nity often seeks to alleviate the human suffering by means of humanitarian aid. Do natural disasters also have negative effects on aggregate economic growth? This paper shows that natural disasters on average have a positive association with subsequent economic performance. This overall positive association is driven by the experience of democratic developing countries that receive humanitarian aid.JEL Classification: O11; Q54; H8

Natural Disasters and Government Turnover

Natural disasters have been linked to both violent conflict and, in some settings, poor economic growth, but do they also drive government parties out of office? We study government turnover in a global sample of more than 200 elections to the executive. Natural disasters are associated with more frequent turnover, but not in highly democratic countries. The effect of geophysical disasters is especially strong, and even stronger when endogeneity is addressed.JEL Classification: Q54; P48; D7

Do the land-poor gain from agricultural investments? Empirical evidence from Zambia using panel data

In the context of the global land rush, some portray large-scale land acquisitions as a potent threat to the livelihoods of already marginalized rural farming households in Africa. In order to avoid the potential pitfall of studying a particular project that may well have atypical effects, this paper systematically investigates the impact on commercial farm wage incomes for rural smallholder households of all pledged investments in the agricultural sector in Zambia between 1994 and 2007. The results suggest that agricultural investments are associated with a robust moderate positive effect, but only for households with a relative shortage of land.JEL:Q12, O13, O16, N5

Ethno-regional favouritism in Sub-Saharan Africa

Studies of political favouritism in Africa often treat ethnic and regional favouritism as interchangeable concepts. The present paper distinguishes between the two and investigates their relative influence in Sub-Saharan Africa. Focusing on whether individuals perceive their ethnic group to be unfairly treated by government, we assess the importance of being a co-ethnic of the country president, of living in the president’s region of origin and of the regional share of president co-ethnics. Empirical findings drawing on detailed individual level survey data covering more than 19 000 respondents across 15 African countries suggest that ethnic and regional favouritism are not the same, but rather have independent effects.JEL: D63, D72, O12, O5

Earthquakes and Civil War

Natural disasters claim thousands of lives each year and can be a heavy burden for already vulnerable societies. Are natural disasters also a cause of violent con- flict? While most studies based on systematic empirical research do find this to be the case, there are also known cases where natural disasters have contributed to a de-escalation of fighting. This paper shows, theoretically and empirically, that mod- erate earthquakes increase the risk of civil wars, but that stronger (and therefore more rare) earthquakes instead reduce the risk of civil wars. We use an exhaustive dataset on earthquakes from 1947 to 2001 collected by seismologists. The associ- ation between earthquakes and the incidence of civil war is decomposed into two separate effects: they affect the risk that new civil wars are started and they affect the chance that existing civil wars are terminated