A Test of Narrow Framing and its Origin

I provide a test of narrow framing to explain why individuals turn down small positive expected value lotteries. Participants in a large survey have been asked whether they would accept a small lottery of winning 180 euros with probability of 1/2 or losing 100 euros with the same probability. To half of the sample, randomly selected, the lottery question was asked at the beginning of the interview; the other half made the decision immediately after they were asked to think about and report their subjective probability distribution of future earnings. Consistent with narrow framing, I find that individuals that were induced to bring their earnings risk to mind before facing the decision are signi.cantly less likely to turn it down. Furthemore, only those who actually say they are uncertain about their incomes are less likely to reject the lottery. I show that attitudes towards regret and reliance on intuition rather than reasoning are likely to drive the tendency to frame choices narrowly.Narrow framing, loss aversion, intuitive thinking, reasoning, regret

A trust-driven financial crisis. Implications for the future of financial markets

The financial crisis has brought to light diffuse opportunistic behaviour and some serious frauds.Because of this trust towards banks, bankers, brokers and the stock market has collapsed to unprecedented levels and there are so far no signs of recovery. This paper uses survey-based information to document the collapse of trust, show its link to the emergence of frauds in the financial industry and discuss its consequences for the demand of financial instruments, investors portfolios and more generally investors reliance on financial markets. It argues that unless serious changes happen in the behaviour of the financial industry, the move towards safer portfolios and away from ambiguous securities that lack of trust entails, will have adverse effects on the availability and cost of equity financing. Accordingly a number of proposals to restore trust are discussed. Their common feature is to restore trust – a belief – by limiting the scope for opportunistic behaviour through a transfer of power from financial intermediaries to investors.

Awareness and stock market participation

The paper documents lack of awareness of financial assets in the 1995 and 1998 Bank of Italy Surveys of Household Income and Wealth. It then explores the determinants of awareness, and finds that the probability that survey respondents are aware of stocks, mutual funds and investment accounts is positively correlated with education, household resources, long-term bank relations and proxies for social interaction. Lack of financial awareness has important implications for understanding the stockholding puzzle and for estimating stock market participation costs. Klassifikation: E2, D8, G

Background Uuncertainty and the Demand for Insurance against Insurable Risks

Theory suggests that people facing higher uninsurable background risk buy more insurance against other risks that are insurable. This proposition is supported by Italian cross-sectional data. It is shown that the probability of purchasing casualty insurance increases with earnings uncertainty. This finding is consistent with consumer preferences being characterised by decreasing absolute prudenceInsurance, background risk, prudence

Financial Literacy and Portfolio Diversification

In this paper we focus on poor financial literacy as one potential factor explaining lack of portfolio diversification. We use the 2007 Unicredit Customers’ Survey, which has indicators of portfolio choice, financial literacy and many demographic characteristics of investors. We first propose test-based indicators of financial literacy and document the extent of portfolio under-diversification. We find that measures of financial literacy are strongly correlated with the degree of portfolio diversification. We also compare the test-based degree of financial literacy with investors’ self-assessment of their financial knowledge, and find only a weak relation between the two measures, an issue that has gained importance after the EU Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MIFID) has required financial institutions to rate investors’ financial sophistication through questionnaires.Financial literacy, Portfolio diversification

Private Transfers, Borrowing Constraints and the Timing of Homeownership

The 1991 Italian Survey of Household Income and Wealth contains detailed information on how respondents acquired their main residence and any other real estate. This information is used to estimate the impact of inter vivos transfers on the saving period required to purchase a house and on the value of the house purchased when households have limited access to mortgage markets. It is found that transfers shorten the saving time by about two years and allow households to purchase considerably larger homes. The results have implications for the debate about the source of the relation between aggregate saving and growth.intergenerational transfers, homeownership, borrowing constraints

Understanding the Size and Profitability of Firms: The Role of a Biological Factor

We collect information on prenatal testosterone in a large sample of entrepreneurs by measuring the length of their 2th to 4th fingers in face to face interviews. Entrepreneurs with higher exposure to prenatal testosterone (lower second to fourth digit ratio) manage larger firms, are matched with larger firms when acquire control and experience faster average growth over the years they manage the firm. We also find that prenatal testosterone is correlated with elicited measures of entrepreneurial skills such as ability to stand work, and the latter are correlated with firm size. This evidence suggests entrepreneurial skills have a biological component and is consistent with models of the size distribution of firms based on entrepreneurial ability. However, firms run by high-testosterone entrepreneurs have lower profitability as measured by return on assets. We offer evidence that this is because the same biological factor that enhances entrepreneurial skills also induces empire building preferences, which leads high-testosterone entrepreneurs to target a firm size that exceeds the profit maximizing value.Firm size distribution, Entrepreneurial success, Digit ratio

The Structure of Multiple Credit Relationships: Evidence from US Firms

When firms borrow from multiple concentrated creditors such as banks they appear to differentiate their allocation of borrowing. In this paper, we put forward hypotheses for this borrowing pattern based on incomplete contract theories and test them using a sample of small U.S. firms. We find that firms with more valuable, more redeployable, and more homogeneous assets differentiate borrowing more sharply across their concentrated creditors. We also find that borrowing differentiation is inversely related to restructuring costs and positively related to firms’ informational transparency. This evidence supports the predictions of incomplete contract theories: the structure of credit relationships appears to be used as a device to discipline creditors and entrepreneurs, especially during corporate reorganizations.Credit Relationships, Multiple Creditors, Borrowing Allocation

Information Acquisition and Portfolio Performance

Rational investors perceive correctly the value of financial information. Investment in information is therefore rewarded with a higher Sharpe ratio. Overcon.dent investors overstate the quality of their own information, and thus attain a lower Sharpe ratio. We contrast the implications of the two models using a unique survey of customers of an Italian leading bank with portfolio data and measures of financial information. We find that the portfolio Sharpe ratio is negatively associated with investment in information. The negative correlation is stronger for men than women and for those who claim they know stocks well, arguably because these investors are more likely to be overcon.dent. We also show that investment in information is associated with more frequent trading, less delegation of portfolio decisions and less diversified portfolios. In each case, the effect of information is stronger for investors who, a priori, are suspected to be more overconfident.Portfolio Choice, Rationality, Overconfidence, Behavioral Finance

Information Spillovers and Factor Adjustment

We investigate the role of information spillovers (IS) in determining firms' labor adjustments. We test the proposition that information on relevant state variables spills over through one firm's decision to those of other firms, assuming that spillovers matter only among firms that are both similar and geographically close. From a large panel of manufacturing firms, we select those that are located in a given industrial district and produce the same goods. We propose a solution to the identification problemtypical of the empirical analysis of social effects. Our results show that firms' decisions are indeed affected by those of similar, neighboring firms, while the actions of firms not satisfying either of the criteria have no impact. We test other implications of the theory and find further supporting evidence of the relevance of IS. First, measures of extreme adjustments exert a stronger influence than mean adjustments; second, smaller firms seem to rely more on external sources of information; third, the effects depend on such characteristics of the reference group as its size and the presence of large firms. Finally, given that firms exposed to IS tend to adjust simultaneously, we find that spillovers amplify the effect of aggregate shocks and constitute a powerful mechanism of amplification of the business cycle.