Informed Trading, Short Sales Constraints and Futures' Pricing

The purpose of this paper is to provide an explanation for relative pricing of futures contracts with respect to underlying stocks using a model incorporating short sales constraints and informational lags between the two markets. In this model stocks and futures are perfect substitutes, except for the fact that short sales are only allowed in futures markets. The futures price is more informative than the stock price, because the existence of short sales constraints in the stock market prohibits trading in some states of the world. If an informed trader with no initial endowment in stocks receives negative information about the common future value of stocks and futures, he is only able to sell futures. Uninformed traders also face a similar short sales constraint in the stock market. As a result of the short sales constraint, the stock price is less informative than the futures price even if the informed trader has received positive information. Stocks can be under- and overpriced in comparison with futures, provided that market makers in stocks and futures only observe the order flow in the other market with a lag. Our theory implies that: 1) the basis is positively associated with the contemporaneous futures returns; 2) the basis is negatively associated with the contemporaneous stock return; 3) futures returns lead stock returns; 4) stock returns also lead futures returns, but to a lesser extent; and 5) the trading volume in the stock market is positively associated with the contemporaneous stock return. The model is tested using daily data from the Finnish index futures markets. Finland provides a good environment for testing our theory, since short sales were not allowed during the period for which we have data (27 May 1988 - 31 May 1994). We find strong empirical support for the implications of our theory.futures' market; short sales constraints; asymmetric information

What is the Price of Hubris? Using Takeover Battles to Infer Overpayments and Synergies

We present a framework for determining the information that can be extracted from stock prices around takeover contests. In only two types of cases is it theoretically possible to use stock price movements to infer bidder overpayment and relative synergies. The takeover contest for Paramount in 1994 illustrates one of these generic cases. We estimate that Viacom, the winning' bidder, overpaid for Paramount by more than $2 billion. This occurred despite the fact that Viacom's CEO owned roughly 3/4 of Viacom. These results are consistent with managerial overconfidence and/or large private benefits, but not with the traditional agency-based incentive problem.

Magical thinking in individuals with high polygenic risk for schizophrenia but no non-affective psychoses-a general population study

A strong genetic background for psychoses is well-established. Most individuals with a high genetic risk for schizophrenia, however, do not develop the disorder. We investigated whether individuals, who have a high genetic risk for schizophrenia but no non-affective psychotic disorders, are predisposed to develop milder forms of deviant thinking in terms of magical thinking. Participants came from the population-based Young Finns Study (n = 1292). The polygenic risk score for schizophrenia (PRS) was calculated on the basis of the most recent genome-wide association study (GWAS). Psychiatric diagnoses over the lifespan were collected up to 2017 from the registry of hospital care. Magical thinking was evaluated with the Spiritual Acceptance Scale (e.g., beliefs in telepathy, miracles, mystical events, or sixth sense) of the Temperament and Character Inventory in 1997, 2001, and 2012 (participants were 20-50-year-olds). We found that, among those who did not develop non-affective psychotic disorders, high PRS predicted higher magical thinking in adulthood (p = 0.001). Further, PRS predicted different developmental courses: a low PRS predicted a steady decrease in magical thinking from age 20 to 50 years, while in individuals with high PRS the decrease in magical thinking ceased in middle age so that their level of magical thinking remained higher than expected for that age. These findings remained when controlling for sex, childhood family environment, and adulthood socioeconomic factors. In conclusion, if high PRS does not lead to a non-affective psychotic disorder, it predicts milder forms of deviant thinking such as elevated magical thinking in adulthood, especially in middle age. The finding enhances our understanding of different outcomes of high genetic psychosis risk.Peer reviewe

Sukupuoli ja matemaattis-luonnontieteelliset ja tekniset alat vanhempien ja nuorten välisissä koulutus- ja urakeskusteluissa

Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin yläkoululaisten vanhempien näkemyksiä sukupuolen merkityksestä nuoren koulutus- ja uravalinnoissa ja niihin liittyvissä keskusteluissa. Tutkimusaineisto (N=103) kerättiin sähköisellä kyselylomakkeella. Tulosten mukaan lähes puolet vanhemmista ei keskustele lastensa kanssa sukupuolen vaikutuksesta koulutus- ja uravalinnoissa, ja selkeä enemmistö vanhemmista ajatteli, että nuoren sukupuoli ei vaikuta näihin keskusteluihin. Yli puolet vanhemmista kertoi keskustelleensa lastensa kanssa matemaattis-luonnontieteellisten ja teknisten alojen mahdollisuuksista, vaikkakaan vanhemmat eivät näitä aloja koe tuntevansa kovin hyvin. Tulosten mukaan äidit tuntevat sukupuolen mukaisen eriytymisen vaikutuksia isiä paremmin. Vanhemmille tulisi tarjota ajantasaista tietoa näistä aloista, jotta he osaisivat tukea nuoria suuntautumaan heitä kiinnostaville koulutus- ja urapoluille sukupuolesta riippumatta

Calibration of RADMON radiation monitor onboard Aalto-1 CubeSat

RADMON is a small radiation monitor designed and assembled by students of University of Turku and University of Helsinki. It is flown on-board Aalto-1, a 3-unit CubeSat in low Earth orbit at about 500 km altitude. The detector unit of the instrument consists of two detectors, a Si solid-state detector and a CsI(Tl) scintillator, and utilizes the ΔE-E technique to determine the total energy and species of each particle hitting the detector. We present the results of the on-ground and in-flight calibration campaigns of the instrument, as well as the characterization of its response through extensive simulations within the Geant4 framework. The overall energy calibration margin achieved is about 5%. The full instrument response to protons and electrons is presented and the issue of proton contamination of the electron channels is quantified and discussed.RADMON is a small radiation monitor designed and assembled by students of University of Turku and University of Helsinki. It is flown on-board Aalto-1, a 3-unit CubeSat in low Earth orbit at about 500 km altitude. The detector unit of the instrument consists of two detectors, a Si solid-state detector and a CsI(Tl) scintillator, and utilizes the Delta E-E technique to determine the total energy and species of each particle hitting the detector. We present the results of the on-ground and in-flight calibration campaigns of the instrument, as well as the characterization of its response through extensive simulations within the Geant4 framework. The overall energy calibration margin achieved is about 5%. The full instrument response to protons and electrons is presented and the issue of proton contamination of the electron channels is quantified and discussed. (C) 2019 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Radiation monitor RADMON aboard Aalto-1 CubeSat : First results

The Radiation Monitor (RADMON) on-board Aalto-1 CubeSat is an energetic particle detector that fulfills the requirements of small size, low power consumption and low budget. Aalto-1 was launched on 23 June 2017 to a sun-synchronous polar orbit with 97.4° inclination and an average altitude of somewhat above 500 km. RADMON has been measuring integral particle intensities from October 2017 to May 2018 with electron energies starting at low-MeV and protons from 10 MeV upwards. In this paper, we present first electron and proton intensity maps obtained over the mission period. In addition, the response of RADMON measurements to magnetospheric dynamics are analyzed, and the electron observations are compared with corresponding measurements by the PROBA-V/EPT mission. Finally, we describe the RADMON data set, which is made publicly available.The Radiation Monitor (RADMON) on-board Aalto-1 CubeSat is an energetic particle detector that fulfills the requirements of small size, low power consumption and low budget. Aalto-1 was launched on 23 June 2017 to a sun-synchronous polar orbit with 97.4 degrees inclination and an average altitude of somewhat above 500 km. RADMON has been measuring integral particle intensities from October 2017 to May 2018 with electron energies starting at low-MeV and protons from 10 MeV upwards. In this paper, we present first electron and proton intensity maps obtained over the mission period. In addition, the response of RADMON measurements to magnetospheric dynamics are analyzed, and the electron observations are compared with corresponding measurements by the PROBA-V/EPT mission. Finally, we describe the RADMON data set, which is made publicly available. (C) 2019 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Peer reviewe

Magical thinking in individuals with high polygenic risk for schizophrenia but no non-affective psychoses-a general population study

A strong genetic background for psychoses is well-established. Most individuals with a high genetic risk for schizophrenia, however, do not develop the disorder. We investigated whether individuals, who have a high genetic risk for schizophrenia but no non-affective psychotic disorders, are predisposed to develop milder forms of deviant thinking in terms of magical thinking. Participants came from the population-based Young Finns Study (n = 1292). The polygenic risk score for schizophrenia (PRS) was calculated on the basis of the most recent genome-wide association study (GWAS). Psychiatric diagnoses over the lifespan were collected up to 2017 from the registry of hospital care. Magical thinking was evaluated with the Spiritual Acceptance Scale (e.g., beliefs in telepathy, miracles, mystical events, or sixth sense) of the Temperament and Character Inventory in 1997, 2001, and 2012 (participants were 20-50-year-olds). We found that, among those who did not develop non-affective psychotic disorders, high PRS predicted higher magical thinking in adulthood (p = 0.001). Further, PRS predicted different developmental courses: a low PRS predicted a steady decrease in magical thinking from age 20 to 50 years, while in individuals with high PRS the decrease in magical thinking ceased in middle age so that their level of magical thinking remained higher than expected for that age. These findings remained when controlling for sex, childhood family environment, and adulthood socioeconomic factors. In conclusion, if high PRS does not lead to a non-affective psychotic disorder, it predicts milder forms of deviant thinking such as elevated magical thinking in adulthood, especially in middle age. The finding enhances our understanding of different outcomes of high genetic psychosis risk

Radiation monitor RADMON aboard Aalto-1 CubeSat: First results

The Radiation Monitor (RADMON) on-board Aalto-1 CubeSat is an energetic particle detector that fulfills the requirements of small size, low power consumption and low budget. Aalto-1 was launched on 23 June 2017 to a sun-synchronous polar orbit with 97.4° inclination and an average altitude of somewhat above 500 km. RADMON has been measuring integral particle intensities from October 2017 to May 2018 with electron energies starting at low-MeV and protons from 10 MeV upwards. In this paper, we present first electron and proton intensity maps obtained over the mission period. In addition, the response of RADMON measurements to magnetospheric dynamics are analyzed, and the electron observations are compared with corresponding measurements by the PROBA-V/EPT mission. Finally, we describe the RADMON data set, which is made publicly available.</p

Previous radiotherapy improves treatment responses and causes a trend toward longer time to progression among patients with immune checkpoint inhibitor-related adverse events

Background: Immune-related adverse events (irAEs) are frequently encountered by patients during immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) treatment and are associated with better treatment outcomes. The sequencing of radiotherapy (RT) and ICIs is widely used in current clinical practice, but its effect on survival has remained unclear. Methods: In a real-world multicenter study including 521 patients who received ICI treatment for metastatic or locally advanced cancer, RT schedules and timing, irAEs, time to progression, overall survival, and treatment responses were retrospectively reviewed. Results: Patients who received previous RT and developed irAE (RT +/AE +) had the best overall response rate (ORR 44.0%). The ORR was 40.1% in the RT −/AE + group, 26.7% in the RT −/AE − group and 18.3% in the RT + /AE − group (p < 0.001). There was a significantly longer time to progression (TTP) in the RT + /AE + group compared to the RT −/AE − and RT + /AE − groups (log rank p = 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively), but the trend toward longer TTP in the RT + /AE + group did not reach statistical significance in pairwise comparison to that in the RT −/AE + group. Preceding RT timing and intent had no statistically significant effect on TTP. In a multivariate model, ECOG = 0 and occurrence of irAEs remained independent positive prognostic factors for TTP (HR 0.737; 95% CI 0.582–0.935; p = 0.012, and HR 0.620; 95% CI 0.499–0.769; p < 0.001, respectively). Conclusions: Better ORR and a trend toward longer TTP were demonstrated for patients with RT preceding ICI treatment and development of irAEs, which suggests that RT may boost the therapeutic effect of immunotherapy in patients with metastatic cancers.Peer reviewe