A Regional Model for the Portuguese Economy Based on a Regional Accounting Matrix

This paper presents a model for the Portuguese economy based on a so-called “Regional Accounting Matrix” (RAM). The RAM is an accounting table made up of information provided by the standard Portuguese National and Regional Accounts, with a similar framework than the well-known social accounting matrixes. The RAM includes regionalised information concerning the generation and the use of the households’ income, but other parts of the table, namely those referring the structure of inputs in the production process, are at national level. Starting with the RAM, the paper then develops an input-output-type model closed with respect to the households’ consumption. This model is based in a “no regional preference hypothesis in supplying each region”. By this hypothesis we mean that every increase in demand, even when regionally located, is complied by a national supply (and also by international imports), and not preferentially by an increase in output of the very concerned region. The model proposed for the Portuguese economy, for the year of 1995, includes the computation of several multipliers – the most striking of them describe the inter-regional income distribution process. In fact, an increase in income, at the beginning in benefit of the households living in one region, may cross the region borders and propagate into other regions, increasing then the households’ income in the latter regions. The model also provides other outstanding multipliers, as those describing the effect on the regional households’ income of changes in demand of 49 kinds of products, and those computing the change in output of these 49 products induced by exogenous shocks in the regional income.

Does the Balance-Of-Payments Matter At the Regional Level?

The main focus of this paper is the importance of the balance-of-(international and interregional)-payments for the regional economies. Discussion centers on two points: 1) on one hand, we do believe that for regions, as a rule, at the overall balance-of-payments (BP) level, the size of imbalances is reduced; 2) on the other, we argue that even if relatively important imbalances arise their effect on regional economies is small. There are several reasons why regional BPs remain relatively well-balanced at overall level. The most important is that trade and current imbalances, that regions run very often with a considerable size, are easily financed by offsetting flows recorded as well in the BP. These trade and current imbalances, that do not pass into overall imbalances, are of benign kind. We present several reasons why that easy financing – allowing for trade and current imbalances – happens. As for the argument that a BP disequilibrium – if it arises – do not hit significantly a regional economy, that is the aftermath of a nationally integrated financial system, where the great majority of the regional units are only branches of national institutions operating all over the country. In this environment, a variation in the regional money stock (that is the counterpart of an overall BP imbalance) is not magnified by a money multiplier. We then conclude that as regions do not face any significant BP constraint, exports do not have any peculiar role in the regional growth process, and therefore the regional competitiveness debate is misplaced.

A damage-based temperature-dependent model for ductile fracture with finite strains and configurational forces

A temperature dependent model for ductile fractur

Comparing the performance of the SF-6D and the EQ-5D in different patient groups

Introduction: This research aims to explore the performance of the SF-6D and the EQ-5D in patients suffering from asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cataracts, and rheumatoid arthritis. In particular, the aim of this research is twofold: 1) to study the level of agreement between the indexes and the descriptive systems of the dimensions of the SF-6D and the EQ-5D, and 2) to analyze the discriminative ability of the instruments. Material and Methods: A sample of 643 patients completed both the SF-36v2 and the EQ-5D. The discriminative ability of the instruments was analyzed. Furthermore, the level of agreement between the indexes and the descriptive systems of the dimensions of the SF-6D and the EQ-5D were studied. The level of agreement between instruments was investigated using correlation coefficients and the Bland-Altman plots, while the influence of medical condition and other socio-demographic variables was analyzed using non-parametric tests. Paired-samples tests were used to identify differences between the scores. Results and Discussion: The results show a strong correlation and agreement between both indexes. Overall, questionnaire indexes differ by medical condition and socio-demographic groups and both instruments are able to discriminate between socio-demographic groups. Conclusion: This study confirmed the hypothesis that the SF-6D generates higher utility values in less healthy individuals. The SF-6D and the EQ-5D seem to perform differently in each of the diseases studied since the descriptive statistics differ between instruments and the level of correlation is not uniform. Results show that the instruments generate different utility values, but there is a strong agreement between both indexes. Thus, the two instruments are not interchangeable and their results cannot be directly comparable.Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Estimating trade balance for a small region: Beira–Estrela, Portugal

This paper estimates the trade balance for a small region located in inland Portugal – Beira Estrela – geographically defined as the merge of 3 official NUT III regions – Beira Interior Norte, Serra da Estrela and Cova da Beira. This estimate disaggregates by 31 commodities and includes four essential parts: first, the international trade of goods and services; second, the interregional trade of the same commodities; third, the net balance between in-region consumption by foreigner non-residents and the international consumption by residents and finally the equivalent net balance for Portuguese tourists visiting Beira-Estrela and the consumption of out Beira-Estrela Portuguese residents. Interregional trade (not available in official statistics) is the residual between supply and demand of the different groups of commodities corresponding to the columns and rows of a regional Make and Use table we derive for Beira-Estrela. This regional matrix is the outcome of the application of a simplified non-survey method to the Portuguese (National Accounts provided) Make and Use table decomposition. Moreover we set a survey on lodging and restaurant users that allowed the detachment of the interregional tourist consumption flows from the remaining interregional trade. The aim of this estimate is to assess the relative importance of tourism in the Beira-Estrela regional trade balance. Furthermore, we argue in the paper that, unlike countries, regions do not benefit from trade surpluses and these surpluses are just the counterpart of the income drainage or capital outflows, which weaken the economic region basis.

Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico

By following the spirit in Favero and Milani (2005), we use recursive thick modeling to take into account model uncertainty for the choice of optimal monetary policy. We consider an open economy model and generate multiple models for only the aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Models are constructed by matching the rankings of aggregate demand and aggregate supply and adding other specifications for the rest of the variables. The main results show that recursive thick modeling with equal and different weights approximates the recent historical behavior of nominal interest rates in Mexico better than recursive thin modelingmodel uncertainty, optimal control, out-of-bag, thin modeling and thick modeling

Recursive Thick Modeling and the Choice of Monetary Policy in Mexico.

The choice of monetary policy is the most important concern of central banks. However, this choice is always confronted, inter alia, with two relevant aspects of economic policy: parameter instability and model uncertainty. This paper deals with both types of uncertainty using a very specific class of models in an optimal control framework. For optimal policy rates series featuring the first two moments similar to those of the actual nominal interest rates in Mexico, we show that recursive thick modeling gives a better approximation than recursive thin modeling. We complement previous work by evaluating the usefulness of both recursive thick modeling and recursive thin modeling in terms of direction-of-change forecastability.Macroeconomic policy, Model uncertainty, Optimal control, Monetary policy, Inflation targeting