Influence of climate change scenarios on health safety limits for the presence of atmospheric Benzo[a]Pyrene in Europe

Ponencia presentada en: IX Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Almería entre el 28 y el 30 de octubre de 2014.[ES]El impacto del cambio climático en la calidad del aire a largo plazo es un factor que no se está considerando actualmente en los planes de mejora de la calidad del aire establecidos por las diferentes administraciones regionales, nacionales y europeas. Por tanto, es necesario actualizar la información disponible sobre contaminantes orgánicos persistentes (COP) con el fin de incluir los impactos climáticos regionales sobre la calidad del aire. El uso de nuevos modelos climáticos/transporte químico con alta resolución nos permite obtener resultados en periodos climáticamente significativos. Con este objetivo, se ha caracterizado, para el escenario SRES A2, cómo el cambio climático afecta a las concentraciones de fondo de benzo(a)pireno (BaP), un producto químico cancerígeno para los que existen ciertas directrices sobre sus niveles. Pero, sobre todo, se desea estudiar cómo (y dónde) las zonas que superan umbrales peligrosos para la salud sufren de la influencia del cambio climático sobre el continente europeo.[EN]The impact of climate change on air quality in the long term is a factor that is not currently being considered in plans to improve air quality in the different regional, national and European administrations. It is therefore necessary to update the information currently available on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) to include regional climatic impacts on air quality, using new regional climate/chemistry transport models with high resolution that allow the establishment of the climate impacts on persistent pollutants, considering the results for significant periods. To this aim, we have characterised, for SRES A2 scenario, how climate change affects background concentrations of benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), a carcinogenic chemical for which some guidelines and legislation already exist. But above all, how (and where) would these current health safety concentration thresholds suffer from the influence of different scenarios outlined for the European continent

AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES IN URBAN AREAS: EFFECTS OF INTRODUCING HYBRID CARS IN MADRID AND BARCELONA METROPOLITAN AREAS (SPAIN)

On-road traffic represents the largest source of pollutants’ emissions in urban areas. In southern Mediterranean countries exceedances of the NO2 and PM10 European air quality targets are observed in urban environments. Moreover the budget of urban emissions contributes to the emissions of O3 precursors (mainly NOx) in a region where the concentration of photochemical pollutants still remains a problem especially during summertime. Air quality modeling, used as a management tool, permits to test abatement emissions strategies in advance. Nowadays, the substitution of vehicles by introducing new technologies (e.g. cleaner fuels, hybrid vehicles, fuel cells) or alternative fuels (e.g. biofuels, natural gas or hydrogen) is a common practice in conurbations around Europe. This work focuses on the assessment of the impacts on air quality due to the introduction of hybrid cars in the largest urban areas of Spain: Madrid (within a more continental environment), and the urban coastal city of Barcelona. The WRFARW/ HERMES/CMAQ modeling system has been implemented and validated with a high resolution (1 km2 and 1 hr) thanks to the calculation power of the MareNostrum supercomputer (94.21 TFlops peak). Due to the complex topography and climatic particularities of the study areas it becomes necessary to use high spatial and temporal resolution and to have a highly-disaggregated emission inventory of gaseous pollutants and particulate matter (HERMES model developed specifically for Spain). The model was applied during a representative summertime polluted episode. The introduction of a 10% or a 30% of hybrid cars in substitution of the oldest petrol and diesel cars of both cities proved to be effective to reduce NO2, SO2 and PM10 concentrations in the conurbations (i.e. a 37% reduction in NO2 24-hr average concentration occurs in Madrid and a 18% in Barcelona when introducing a 30% of hybrid vehicles; moreover 24-hr average PM10 decreases up to 12% and 14% in Madrid and Barcelona, respectively). Nevertheless the O3 concentrations slightly arise (being the 8-hr average concentration a 3% higher in Madrid and a 24% in Barcelona respect to the base case). The selected domains present a similar behavior with respect to their impacts, with a noticeable reduction of ground-level NOx in downtown areas and an increase in the tropospheric ozone concentration in the VOC-limited areas. In downwind locations the precursors’ emissions control causes a reduction of O3 levels. The air quality modeling system proves to be a suitable and useful tool to manage urban air quality, especially when applied with this high resolution

Can biomonitors effectively detect airborne benzo[a]pyrene? An evaluation approach using modelling

Biomonitoring data available on levels of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in pineneedles from the Iberian Peninsula were used to estimateair concentrations of benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) and, at thesame time, fuelled the comparison with chemistry transportmodel representations. Simulations with the modelling system WRF+EMEP+CHIMERE were validated against datafrom the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme(EMEP) air sampling network. Modelled atmospheric concentrations were used as a consistent reference in orderto compare the performance of vegetation-to-air estimatingmethods. A spatial and temporal resolution of 9 km and 1 hwas implemented. The field-based database relied on a pineneedles sampling scheme comprising 33 sites in Portugal and37 sites in Spain complemented with the BaP measurementsavailable from the EMEP sites. The ability of pine needlesto act as biomonitoring markers for the atmospheric concentrations of BaP was estimated by converting the levels obtained in pine needles into air concentrations by six differentapproaches, one of them presenting realistic concentrationswhen compared to the modelled atmospheric values. The justification for this study is that the gaps still exist in the knowledge of the life cycles of semi-volatile organic compounds(SVOCs), particularly the partition processes between air andvegetation. The strategy followed in this work allows for theeffective estimation by the model of concentrations in airand vegetation and of the best approaches to estimate atmospheric levels from values found in vegetation

Attributing trends in extremely hot days to changes in atmospheric dynamics

This paper presents a method for attributing regional trends in the frequency of extremely hot days (EHDs) to changes in the frequency of the atmospheric patterns that characterize such extraordinary events. The study is applied to mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands for the extended summers of the period 1958–2008, where significant and positive trends in maximum temperature (Tx) have been reported during the second half of the past century.This study was supported by the Spanish government and the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) through the projects SPEQTRES (CGL2011-29672-C02-02) and REPAIR (CGL2014-59677-R). J. P. Montavez also acknowledges the financial support from Fundacion Seneca (Ref 19640/EE/14)

The Role of Aerosol Concentration on Precipitation in a Winter Extreme Mixed-Phase System: The Case of Storm Filomena

Aerosol concentration, size and composition are fundamental in hydrometeor formation processes. Meteorological models often use prescribed aerosol concentrations and a single substance. In this study, we analyze the role of aerosol concentration, acting both as CCN and IN, in the development of precipitation in a mixed phase system in numerical weather simulations. To this end, Storm Filomena was selected as the case study. In such a mixed-phase system, the coexistence of supercooled water with ice crystals, as well as the particular existence of a thermal inversion, led to the formation of precipitation in the form of rain, snow and graupel. Several high resolution experiments varying the fixed background aerosol concentration as well as a simulation with an interactive aerosol calculation were performed by means of the WRF-Chem model, using the same physics suite, domain and driving conditions. Results show that the total precipitation remains basically unaltered, with maximum changes of 5%; however, the production of snow is heavily modified. The simulation with maximum prescribed aerosol concentration produced 27% more snow than the interactive aerosol simulation, and diminished the graupel (74%) and rain production (28%). This redistribution of precipitation is mainly linked to the fact that under fixed ice crystal population the variation of aerosol concentration translates into changes in the liquid water content and droplet size and number concentration, thus altering the efficiency of precipitation production. In addition, while modifying the prescribed aerosol concentration produces the same precipitation pattern with the concentration modulating the precipitation amount, interactive aerosol calculation leads to a different precipitation pattern due to the spatial and temporal variability induced in the dynamical aerosol distribution

Impact of large wildfires on PM10 levels and human mortality in Portugal

Uncontrolled wildfires have a substantial impact on the environment, the economy and local populations. According to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), between 2000 and 2013 wildfires burned up to 740 000 ha of land annually in the south of Europe, Portugal being the country with the highest percentage of burned area per square kilometre. However, there is still a lack of knowledge regarding the impacts of the wildfire-related pollutants on the mortality of the country's population. All wildfires occurring during the fire season (June–July–August–September) from 2001 and 2016 were identified, and those with a burned area above 1000 ha (large fires) were considered for the study. During the studied period (2001–2016), more than 2 million ha of forest (929 766 ha from June to September alone) were burned in mainland Portugal. Although large fires only represent less than 1 % of the number of total fires, in terms of burned area their contribution is 46 % (53 % from June to September). To assess the spatial impact of the wildfires, burned areas in each region of Portugal were correlated with PM10 concentrations measured at nearby background air quality monitoring stations. Associations between PM10 and all-cause (excluding injuries, poisoning and external causes) and cause-specific mortality (circulatory and respiratory) were studied for the affected populations using Poisson regression models. A significant positive correlation between burned area and PM10 was found in some regions of Portugal, as well as a significant association between PM10 concentrations and mortality, these being apparently related to large wildfires in some of the regions. The north, centre and inland of Portugal are the most affected areas. The high temperatures and long episodes of drought expected in the future will increase the probabilities of extreme events and therefore the occurrence of wildfires.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Simulación meteorológica anual con elevada resolución espacial para aplicaciones de calidad del aire

Ponencia presentada en: XXIX Jornadas Científicas de la AME y el VII Encuentro Hispano Luso de Meteorología celebrado en Pamplona, del 24 al 26 de abril de 2006

Climatología del viento sobre la Península Ibérica: observaciones y modelos

Ponencia presentada en: IX Congreso de la Asociación Española de Climatología celebrado en Almería entre el 28 y el 30 de octubre de 2014.[ES]En este trabajo se presenta la climatología del viento en la Península Ibérica (PI) obtenida a partir de datos de más de 500 estaciones con registros horarios para el periodo 1999-2007. Se describen distintos aspectos; rosa de los vientos, funciones de distribución de probabilidad, ciclo anual y respuesta a distintos tipos de circulación del campo de vientos a escala regional (20 regiones). Las regiones fueron obtenidas a partir de un análisis clúster imponiendo máxima similitud temporal entre las series observacionales.[EN]In this work the wind climatology of the Iberian Peninsula is presented. It has been obtained using more tan 500 weather stations with hourly records for the period 1999-2007. Wind Roses, annual cycles and probability distribution functions as well as the response of the wind field to circulation types are characterized at regional scale. Regions are obtained using a a cluster analysis, grouping places with similar temporal variability.Este trabajo ha sido financiado por el Gobierno de España y el Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) por medio de los proyectos MINIEOLICA (PSE.120000.2007.14), CORWES (CGL210-22158) y SPEQ-TRES (CGL2011-29672-C02-02)

Climate drivers of the 2017 devastating fires in Portugal

A record 500,000 hectares burned in Portugal during the extreme wildfire season of 2017, with more than 120 human lives lost. Here we analyse the climatic factors responsible for the burned area (BA) from June to October series in Portugal for the period 1980-2017. Superposed onto a substantially stationary trend on BA data, strong oscillations on shorter time scales were detected. Here we show that they are significantly affected by the compound effect of summer (June-July-August) drought and high temperature conditions during the fire season. Drought conditions were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI). Then the extent to which the burned area has diverged from climate-expected trends was assessed. Our results indicate that in the absence of other drivers, climate change would have led to higher BA values. In addition, the 2017 extreme fire season is well captured with the model forced with climate drivers only, suggesting that the extreme fire season of 2017 could be a prelude to future conditions and likewise events. Indeed, the expected further increase of drought and high temperature conditions in forthcoming decades, point at a potential increase of fire risk in this region. The climate-fire model developed in this study could be useful to develop more skilled seasonal predictions capable of anticipating potentially hazardous conditions

Estimation of future emission scenarios for analysing the impact of traffic mobility on a large Mediterranean conurbation in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area (Spain)

Emission modelling permits us to quantitatively assess the effects of emission abatement strategies. In urban areas, such strategies are designed mainly to reduce the emissions from the on–road traffic sector. This work analyses the impact of several mobility strategies on urban emissions in the coastal city of Barcelona, Spain, when the High Elective Resolution Modelling Emission System (HERMES) is applied at a very high resolution (1 km × 1 km and 1 h). The analysis was conducted by projecting the emissions data obtained from a base case scenario in 2004 onto three future scenarios set in 2015, where each future scenario represented a set of traffic mobility management measures. Specific developments were considered per emission sector, including power generation, industrial activities, domestic– commercial, solvents, on–road traffic, biogenic emissions, ports and airports, to best compare the present base case scenario with the future mobility scenarios generated for 2015. These emission scenarios for 2015 take into account the population projections and the variations in port and airport activities among other factors, while the main focus is on the on–road traffic sector, the types of vehicles used, such as technologically improved buses and hybrid vehicles, as well as the types of fuels used, including natural gas and biofuels. The results of the emission model indicate that the mobility management strategies, the technological improvements and the use of alternative fuels reduce the emissions from on–road traffic by approximately 75% (in terms of nitrogen oxides emission reductions in the city centre of Barcelona). This decrease leads to a 35% reduction in overall nitrogen oxides emissions, even if some sectors individually experience increases based on their specific projections.Postprint (published version