A simple Bayesian linear excess relative risk model

A new Bayesian Poisson relative risk model is proposed for displaying the excess relative risk associated to a unique exposure as a probability distribution in a closed form. The background risk can be modelled by a unique two levels factor, e.g. gender or smoking status.Cancer Research U

COBRA: a new European research project for organic plant breeding

Development of organic plant breeding and seed production will have a valuable impact on organic plant production. Breeding of plant material adapted for organic agriculture is crucial in order to cope with stresses such as climate change, weeds and seed borne diseases. Conventional varieties may not meet the specific needs of organic agriculture. The use of plant material adapted to conditions of organic agriculture will have a positive effect on the productivity and sustainability of organic crop production

Evaluation of barriers to national CO2 geological storage assessments

A survey to evaluate the main perceived barriers to national CO2 storage assessments was carried out in 2015, targeting countries where some Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) activity was known or where CCS could potentially be implemented in the future. All the questionnaire respondents indicated that some level of national assessment had been achieved. In most cases, these assessments had been sufficient to allow policy makers to make informed decisions about priorities for follow-up actions. Where national storage assessments had been carried out, the major barriers had been mainly overcome through strong political and regulatory support for CCS and policies enabling access to relevant data

Statistical Models for Solar Flare Interval Distribution in Individual Active Regions

This article discusses statistical models for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. We analyzed solar flare data in 55 active regions that are listed in the GOES soft X-ray flare catalog. We discuss some problems with a conventional procedure to derive probability density functions from any data set and propose a new procedure, which uses the maximum likelihood method and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) to objectively compare some competing probability density functions. We found that lognormal and inverse Gaussian models are more likely models than the exponential model for solar flare interval distribution in individual active regions. The results suggest that solar flares do not occur randomly in time; rather, solar flare intervals appear to be regulated by solar flare mechanisms. We briefly mention a probabilistic solar flare forecasting method as an application of a solar flare interval distribution analysis.Comment: 15 pages, 2 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Dental Attendances to General Medical Practitioners in Wales: a 44 Year Analysis

One-third of the UK population is composed of problem-oriented dental attenders, seeking dental care only when they have acute dental pain or problems. Patients seek urgent dental care from a range of health care professionals, including general medical practitioners. This study aimed to identify trends in dental attendance at Welsh medical practices over a 44-y period, specifically in relation to dental policy change and factors associated with repeat attendance. A retrospective observational study was completed via the nationwide Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank of visits to general medical practice in Wales. Read codes associated with dental diagnoses were extracted for patients attending their general medical practitioner between 1974 and 2017. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and univariate and multivariable logistic regression. Over the 44-y period, there were 439,361 dental Read codes, accounting for 288,147 patient attendances. The overall attendance rate was 2.60 attendances per 1,000 patient-years (95% CI, 2.59 to 2.61). The attendance rate was negligible through 1987 but increased sharply to 5.0 per 1,000 patient-years in 2006 (95% CI, 4.94 to 5.09) before almost halving to 2.6 per 1,000 in 2017 (95% CI, 2.53 to 2.63) to a pattern that coincided with changes to National Health Service policies. Overall 26,312 patients were repeat attenders and were associated with living in an area classified as urban and deprived (odds ratio [OR], 1.22; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.25; P < 0.0001) or rural (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.85; P < 0.0001). Repeat attendance was associated with greater odds of having received an antibiotic prescription (OR, 2.53; 95% CI, 2.50 to 2.56; P < 0.0001) but lower odds of having been referred to another service (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.81; P < 0.0001). Welsh patients’ reliance on medical care for dental problems was influenced by social deprivation and health policy. This indicates that future interventions to discourage dental attendance at medical practitioners should be targeted at those in the most deprived urban areas or rural areas. In addition, health policy may influence attendance rates positively and negatively and should be considered in the future when decisions related to policy change are made

Dental Attendances to General Medical Practitioners in Wales: A 44 Year-Analysis

One-third of the UK population is composed of problem-oriented dental attenders, seeking dental care only when they have acute dental pain or problems. Patients seek urgent dental care from a range of health care professionals, including general medical practitioners. This study aimed to identify trends in dental attendance at Welsh medical practices over a 44-y period, specifically in relation to dental policy change and factors associated with repeat attendance. A retrospective observational study was completed via the nationwide Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank of visits to general medical practice in Wales. Read codes associated with dental diagnoses were extracted for patients attending their general medical practitioner between 1974 and 2017. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and univariate and multivariable logistic regression. Over the 44-y period, there were 439,361 dental Read codes, accounting for 288,147 patient attendances. The overall attendance rate was 2.60 attendances per 1,000 patient-years (95% CI, 2.59 to 2.61). The attendance rate was negligible through 1987 but increased sharply to 5.0 per 1,000 patient-years in 2006 (95% CI, 4.94 to 5.09) before almost halving to 2.6 per 1,000 in 2017 (95% CI, 2.53 to 2.63) to a pattern that coincided with changes to National Health Service policies. Overall 26,312 patients were repeat attenders and were associated with living in an area classified as urban and deprived (odds ratio [OR], 1.22; 95% CI, 1.19 to 1.25; P < 0.0001) or rural (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.85; P < 0.0001). Repeat attendance was associated with greater odds of having received an antibiotic prescription (OR, 2.53; 95% CI, 2.50 to 2.56; P < 0.0001) but lower odds of having been referred to another service (OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.81; P < 0.0001). Welsh patients’ reliance on medical care for dental problems was influenced by social deprivation and health policy. This indicates that future interventions to discourage dental attendance at medical practitioners should be targeted at those in the most deprived urban areas or rural areas. In addition, health policy may influence attendance rates positively and negatively and should be considered in the future when decisions related to policy change are made

Of problems and opportunities How to treat and how to not treat crystallographic fragment screening data

In their recent commentary in Protein Science, Jaskolski et al. analyzed three randomly picked diffraction data sets from fragment screening group depositions from the PDB and, based on that, they claimed that such data are principally problematic. We demonstrate here that if such data are treated properly, none of the proclaimed criticisms persis

Impacts of climate change on national biodiversity population trends

Climate change has had well-documented impacts on the distribution and phenology of species across many taxa, but impacts on species’ abundance, which relates closely to extinction risk and ecosystem function, have not been assessed across taxa. In the most comprehensive multi-taxa comparison to date, we modelled variation in national population indices of 501 mammal, bird, aphid, butterfly and moth species as a function of annual variation in weather variables, which through time allowed us to identify a component of species’ population growth that can be associated with post-1970s climate trends. We found evidence that these climate trends have significantly affected population trends of 15.8% of species, including eight with extreme (> 30% decline per decade) negative trends consistent with detrimental impacts of climate change. The modelled effect of climate change could explain 48% of the significant across-species population decline in moths and 63% of the population increase in winged aphids. The other taxa did not have significant across-species population trends or consistent climate change responses. Population declines in species of conservation concern were linked to both climatic and non-climatic factors respectively accounting for 42 and 58% of the decline. Evident differential impacts of climate change between trophic levels may signal the potential for future ecosystem disruption. Climate change has therefore already driven large-scale population changes of some species, had significant impacts on the overall abundance of some key invertebrate groups and may already have altered biological communities and ecosystems in Great Britain