Effect of aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty on projected exceedance year of a 1.5 °c global temperature rise

© 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Anthropogenic aerosol emissions are predicted to decline sharply throughout the 21st century, in line with climate change and air quality mitigation policies, causing a near-term warming of climate that will impact our trajectory towards 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. However, the persistent uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing limits our understanding of how much the global mean temperature will respond to near-term reductions in anthropogenic aerosol emissions. We quantify the model and scenario uncertainty in global mean aerosol radiative forcing up to 2050 using statistical emulation of a perturbed parameter ensemble for emission reduction scenarios consistent with three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We then use a simple climate model to translate the uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing into uncertainty in global mean temperature projections, accounting additionally for the potential correlation of aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. Near-term aerosol radiative forcing uncertainty alone causes an uncertainty window of around 5 years (2034-2039) on the projected year of exceeding a global temperature rise of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial temperatures for a middle of the road emissions scenario (SSP2-RCP4.5). A correlation between aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity would increase the 1.5 °C exceedance window by many years. The results highlight the importance of quantifying aerosol radiative forcing and any relationship with climate sensitivity in climate models in order to reduce uncertainty in temperature projections

Peace Parks: The Paradox of Globalisation.

Examines plans for transfrontier conservation areas or Peace Parks in Southern Africa and Central America. Environmental philosophy that underpins the notion of transfrontier conservation areas; Benefits of Peace Parks; Resistances to transboundary state making

Genetic determinants of treatment benefit of the angiotensin-converting enzyme-inhibitor perindopril in patients with stable coronary artery disease

Aims The efficacy of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE)-inhibitors in stable coronary artery disease (CAD) may be increased by targeting the therapy to those patients most likely to benefit. However, these patients cannot be identified by clinical characteristics. We developed a genetic profile to predict the treatment benefit of ACE-inhibitors exist and to optimize therapy with ACE-inhibitors. Methods and resultsIn 8907 stable CAD patients participating in the randomized placebo-controlled EUROPA-trial, we analysed 12 candidate genes within the pharmacodynamic pathway of ACE-inhibitors, using 52 haplotype-tagging-single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). The primary outcome was the reduction in cardiovascular mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and resuscitated cardiac arrest during 4.2 years of follow-up. Multivariate Cox regression was performed with multiple testing corrections using permutation analysis. Three polymorphisms, located in the angiotensin-II type I receptor and bradykinin type I receptor genes, were significantly associated with the treatment benefit of perindopril after multivariate adjustment for confounders and correction for multiple testing. A pharmacogenetic score, combining these three SNPs, demonstrated a stepwise reduction of risk in the placebo group and a stepwise decrease in treatment benefit of perindopril with an increasing scores (interaction P < 0.0001). A pronounced treatment benefit was observed in a subgroup of 73.5 of the patients [hazard ratio (HR) 0.67; 95 confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.79], whereas no benefit was apparent in the remaining 26.5 (HR 1.26; 95 CI 0.97-1.67) with a trend towards a harmful effe