Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity

Eight atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are forced with observed historical (1871–2010) monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice variations using the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project II data set. The AGCMs therefore have a similar temperature pattern and trend to that of observed historical climate change. The AGCMs simulate a spread in climate feedback similar to that seen in coupled simulations of the response to CO2 quadrupling. However, the feedbacks are robustly more stabilizing and the effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) smaller. This is due to a pattern effect, whereby the pattern of observed historical sea surface temperature change gives rise to more negative cloud and longwave clear‐sky feedbacks. Assuming the patterns of long‐term temperature change simulated by models, and the radiative response to them, are credible; this implies that existing constraints on EffCS from historical energy budget variations give values that are too low and overly constrained, particularly at the upper end. For example, the pattern effect increases the long‐term Otto et al. (2013, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1836) EffCS median and 5–95% confidence interval from 1.9 K (0.9–5.0 K) to 3.2 K (1.5–8.1 K

The influence of remote aerosol forcing from industrialised economies on the future evolution of East and West African rainfall

Past changes in global industrial aerosol emissions have played a significant role in historical shifts in African rainfall and yet assessment of the impact on African rainfall of near term (10-40 year) potential aerosol emission pathways remains largely unexplored. Whilst existing literature links future aerosol declines to a northward shift of Sahel rainfall, existing climate projections rely on RCP scenarios that do not explore the range of air quality drivers. Here we present projections from two emission scenarios that better envelope the range of potential aerosol emissions. More aggressive emission cuts results in northward shifts of the tropical rain-bands whose signal can emerge from expected internal variability on short, 10-20 year, time horizons. We also show for the first time that this northward shift also impacts East Africa, with evidence of delays to both onset and withdrawal of the Short Rains. However, comparisons of rainfall impacts across models suggest that only certain aspects of both the West and East African model responses may be robust, given model uncertainties. This work motivates the need for wider exploration of air quality scenarios in the climate science community to assess the robustness of these projected changes and to provide evidence to underpin climate adaptation in Africa. In particular, revised estimates of emission impacts of legislated measures every 5-10 years would have a value in providing near term climate adaptation information for African stakeholders

Rationale and design of the GUIDE-IT study: Guiding Evidence Based Therapy Using Biomarker Intensified Treatment in Heart Failure.

OBJECTIVES: The GUIDE-IT (Guiding Evidence Based Therapy Using Biomarker Intensified Treatment in Heart Failure) study is designed to determine the safety, efficacy, and cost-effectiveness of a strategy of adjusting therapy with the goal of achieving and maintaining a target N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level of BACKGROUND: Elevations in natriuretic peptide (NP) levels provide key prognostic information in patients with HF. Therapies proven to improve outcomes in patients with HF are generally associated with decreasing levels of NPs, and observational data show that decreases in NP levels over time are associated with favorable outcomes. Results from smaller prospective, randomized studies of this strategy thus far have been mixed, and current guidelines do not recommend serial measurement of NP levels to guide therapy in patients with HF. METHODS: GUIDE-IT is a prospective, randomized, controlled, unblinded, multicenter clinical trial designed to randomize approximately 1,100 high-risk subjects with systolic HF (left ventricular ejection fraction ≤40%) to either usual care (optimized guideline-recommended therapy) or a strategy of adjusting therapy with the goal of achieving and maintaining a target NT-proBNP level of CONCLUSIONS: The GUIDE-IT study is designed to definitively assess the effects of an NP-guided strategy in high-risk patients with systolic HF on clinically relevant endpoints of mortality, hospitalization, quality of life, and medical resource use. (Guiding Evidence Based Therapy Using Biomarker Intensified Treatment in Heart Failure [GUIDE-IT]; NCT01685840)

Future changes in Beijing haze events under different anthropogenic aerosol emission scenarios

Air pollution is a major issue in China and one of the largest threats to public health. We investigated future changes in atmospheric circulation patterns associated with haze events in the Beijing region, and the severity of haze events during these circulation conditions, from 2016 to 2049 under two different aerosol scenarios: a maximum technically feasible aerosol reduction (MTFR) and a current legislation aerosol scenario (CLE). In both cases greenhouse gas emissions follow the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. Under RCP4.5 with CLE aerosol the frequency of circulation patterns associated with haze events increases due to a weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon via increased sea level pressure over the North Pacific. The rapid reduction in anthropogenic aerosol and precursor emissions in MTFR further increases the frequency of circulation patterns associated with haze events, due to further increases of the sea level pressure over the North Pacific and a reduction in the intensity of the Siberian high. Even with the aggressive aerosol reductions in MTFR periods of poor visibility, represented by above normal aerosol optical depth (AOD), still occur in conjunction with atmospheric circulation patterns currently associated with haze in the current climate. However, the intensity of poor visibility decreases in MTFR, so that haze events are less dangerous in this scenario by 2050 compared to CLE, and relative to the current baseline. This study reveals the competing effects of aerosol emission reductions on future haze events through their direct contribution to haze and their influence on the atmospheric circulation patterns. A compound consideration of these two impacts should be taken in future policy making

Crop Updates - 2009 Katanning

This session covers seventeen papers from different authors GM canola – How will it affect the way I farm? Murray Scholz, 2008 Nuffield scholar, Southern NSW Eight years of IWM smashes tyegrass seed banks by 98% over 31 focus paddocks, Peter Newman, Glenn Adam & Trevor Bell, Department of Agriculture and Food The global economic climate and impacts on agriculture, profile on Michael Whitehead Rabobank New York Lessons from five years of cropping systems research, W.K. Anderson, Department of Agriculture and Food Case study of a 17year old agricultural lime trial, C. Gazey, Department of Agriculture and Food, J. Andrew, Precision SoilTech and R. Pearce, ConsultAg Fertilising in a changing price environment, Bill Bowden, Wayne Pluske and Jeremy Lemon, Department of Agriculture and Food Fact or Fiction: Who is telling the truth and how to tell the difference? D.C. Edmeades, agKnowledge Ltd, Hamilton Forecast disease resistance profile for the Western Australian barley crop over the next three years, JJ Russell, Department of Agriculture and Food Malting barley varieties differ in their flowering date and their response to change in sowing date, BH Paynter and JJ Russell, Department of Agriculture and Food Decimating weed seed banks within non-crop phases for the benefit of subsequent crops, Dr Davis Ferris, Department of Agriculture and Food Autumn cleaning yellow serradella pastures with broad spectrum herbicides – a novel weed control strategy that exploits delayed germination, Dr Davis Ferris, Department of Agriculture and Food Emerging weeds in changing farming systems, Dr Abul Hashen, Department of Agriculture and Food More glyphosate-resistant annual ryegrass populations within Western Australia, Dr Abul Hashem and Dr Catherine Borger, Department of Agriculture and Food Reasons to use only the full label herbicide rate, Stephen B. Powels, Qin Yu, Mechelle Owen, Roberto Busi, Sudheesh Manalil, University of Western Australia Flaxleaf fleabane – coming to a property near you! Sally Peltzer, Department of Agriculture and Food Glyphosate – the consequences of cutting rates! Sally Peltzer and David Minkey, Department of Agriculture and Food Benefits of crop rotations/break crops in managing soil moisture, soil health, weeds and disease – an overview, Raj Malik, Department of Agriculture and Foo

Executive summary: heart disease and stroke statistics--2014 update: a report from the American Heart Association.

Each year, the American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, and other government agencies, brings together the most up-to-date statistics on heart disease, stroke, other vascular diseases, and their risk factors and presents them in its Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update. The Statistical Update is a critical resource for researchers, clinicians, healthcare policy makers, media professionals, the lay public, and many others who seek the best available national data on heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular disease-related morbidity and mortality and the risks, quality of care, use of medical procedures and operations, and costs associated with the management of these diseases in a single document. Indeed, since 1999, the Statistical Update has been cited >10 500 times in the literature, based on citations of all annual versions. In 2012 alone, the various Statistical Updates were cited ≈3500 times (data from Google Scholar). In recent years, the Statistical Update has undergone some major changes with the addition of new chapters and major updates across multiple areas, as well as increasing the number of ways to access and use the information assembled. For this year's edition, the Statistics Committee, which produces the document for the AHA, updated all of the current chapters with the most recent nationally representative data and inclusion of relevant articles from the literature over the past year. This year's edition includes a new chapter on peripheral artery disease, as well as new data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with additional new focus on evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors, implementation strategies, and implications of the AHA's 2020 Impact Goals. Below are a few highlights from this year's Update. © 2013 American Heart Association, Inc

Executive summary: heart disease and stroke statistics--2013 update: a report from the American Heart Association.

Each year, the American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, and other government agencies, brings together the most up-to-date statistics on heart disease, stroke, other vascular diseases, and their risk factors and presents them in its Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update*The Statistical Update is a valuable resource for researchers, clinicians, healthcare policy makers, media professionals, the lay public, and many others who seek the best national data available on heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular disease-related morbidity and mortality and the risks, quality of care, medical procedures and operations, and costs associated with the management of these diseases in a single document*Indeed, since 1999, the Statistical Update has been cited \u3e10 500 times in the literature, based on citations of all annual versions*In 2011 alone, the various Statistical Updates were cited ≈1500 times (data from ISI Web of Science)*In recent years, the Statistical Update has undergone some major changes with the addition of new chapters and major updates across multiple areas, as well as increasing the number of ways to access and use the information assembled*For this year\u27s edition, the Statistics Committee, which produces the document for the AHA, updated all of the current chapters with the most recent nationally representative data and inclusion of relevant articles from the literature over the past year*This year\u27s edition also implements a new chapter organization to reflect the spectrum of cardiovascular health behaviors and health factors and risks, as well as subsequent complicating conditions, disease states, and outcomes*Also, the 2013 Statistical Update contains new data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with additional new focus on evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors, implementation strategies, and implications of the AHA\u27s 2020 Impact Goals*Below are a few highlights from this year\u27s Update . © 2013 American Heart Association, Inc

Crop Updates 2001 - Grower Booklet

1. Strategies for leaf disease management in wheat, Jatinderpal Bhathal1, Cameron Weeks2, Kith Jayasena1 and Robert Loughman1, 1Agriculture Western Australia. 2Mingenew-Irwin Group Inc. 2. Burn stubble windrows: to diagnose soil fertility problems, Bill Bowden, Chris Gazey and Ross Brennan, Agriculture Western Australia 3. Rainfall – what happened in 2000 and the prospects for 2001, Ian Foster, Agriculture Western Australia 4. Strategies for leaf disease management in malting barley, K. Jayasena1, Q. Knight2 and R. Loughman1, 1Agriculture Western Australia, 2IAMA Agribusiness 5. Planning your cropping program in season 2001, Dr Ross Kingwell, Agriculture Western Australia and University of Western Australia 6. Rotational crops and varieties for management of root lesion nematodes in Western Australia, S.B. Sharma, S. Kelly and R. Loughman, Crop Improvement Institute, Agriculture Western Australia 7. When and where to grow oats, Glenn McDonald, Agriculture Western Australia 8. Managing Gairdner barley for quality, Kevin Young and Blakely Paynter, Agriculture Western Australia FARMING SYSTEMS, PASTURES AND WEEDS 9.Evaluation of pasture species for phase pasture systems, Keith Devenish, Agriculture Western Australia 10. Competitiveness of wild radish in a wheat – lupin rotation, Abul Hashem, Nerys Wilkins, and Terry Piper, Agriculture Western Australia 11. Can we eradicate barley grass? Sally Peltzer, Agriculture Western Australia 12. Short term pasture phase for weed control, Clinton Revell and Candy Hudson, Agriculture Western Australia 13. Herbicide tolerance of some annual pasture legumes adapted to coarse textured sandy soils, Clinton Revell and Ian Rose, Agriculture Western Australia 14. Integrated weed management: Cadoux, Alexandra Wallace, Agriculture Western Australia LUPINS 15. Inter-row knockdowns for profitable lupins, Paul Blackwell, Agriculture Western Australia and Miles Obst, farmer, Mingenew 16.. Wild radish – the implications for our rotations, Dr David Bowran, Centre for Cropping Systems 17. Lupin variety performance: Are you making the most of it? Bevan J. Buirchell, Senior Plant Breeder, Agriculture Western Australia 18. Anthracnose in lupins – understanding the risk, Moin Salam, Art Diggle, Geoff Thomas, Mark Sweetingham and Bill O’Neill, Agriculture Western Australia OILSEEDS 19. Effect of stubble, seeding technique and seed size on crop establishment and yield of canola, Rafiul Alam, Glen Riethmuller and Greg Hamilton, Agriculture Western Australia 20. Canola – More responses to lime, Chris Gazey and Paul Carmody,Agriculture Western Australia 22. Performance of new canola varieties in AGWEST variety trials in 2000, G. Walton, Crop Improvement Institute, Agriculture Western Australia PULSES 23. The ascochyta management package for 2001, B. MacLeod, Agriculture Western Australia 24. Herbicide tolerance of new field pea varieties and lines, M. Seymour, H. Dhammu, T. Piper, D. Nicholson, M. D\u27Antuono, Agriculture Western Australi

Genome-Wide Meta-Analysis Identifies Regions on 7p21 (AHR) and 15q24 (CYP1A2) As Determinants of Habitual Caffeine Consumption

We report the first genome-wide association study of habitual caffeine intake. We included 47,341 individuals of European descent based on five population-based studies within the United States. In a meta-analysis adjusted for age, sex, smoking, and eigenvectors of population variation, two loci achieved genome-wide significance: 7p21 (P = 2.4×10−19), near AHR, and 15q24 (P = 5.2×10−14), between CYP1A1 and CYP1A2. Both the AHR and CYP1A2 genes are biologically plausible candidates as CYP1A2 metabolizes caffeine and AHR regulates CYP1A2