ANALYSIS OF THE U.S. COMMODITY LOAN PROGRAM WITH MARKETING LOAN PROVISIONS

Over the next several years, crop prices are projected to be below to slightly above commodity loan rates. As a result, marketing loan benefits to farmers, in the form of loan deficiency payments and marketing loan gains from the commodity loan program, are likely to continue to be sizeable. The level of realized per-unit revenues facilitated by marketing loans exceeds commodity loan rates, thereby raising expected net returns to farmers. Model simulations show that the loan program can raise total acreage planted to major field crops, generally increasing levels of domestic use and exports while lowering crop prices. Cross-commodity effects of supply response to relative returns (including marketing loan benefits), however, result in acreage shifts among competing crops, which can lead to reductions in plantings of some crops in some years. Most impacts occur in the years when there are marketing loan benefits, with little effect in subsequent years when prices rise high enough to eliminate marketing loan benefits. The livestock sector benefits from these outcomes because of generally lower feed costs.Commodity loans, marketing loans, nonrecourse loans, loan deficiency payments, price support, commodity programs, Agricultural Finance,

Tiling strategies for optical follow-up of gravitational wave triggers by wide field of view telescopes

Binary neutron stars are among the most promising candidates for joint gravitational-wave and electromagnetic astronomy. The goal of this work is to investigate the strategy of using gravitational wave sky-localizations for binary neutron star systems, to search for electromagnetic counterparts using wide field of view optical telescopes. We examine various strategies of scanning the gravitational wave sky-localizations on the mock 2015-16 gravitational-wave events. We propose an optimal tiling-strategy that would ensure the most economical coverage of the gravitational wave sky-localization, while keeping in mind the realistic constrains of transient optical astronomy. Our analysis reveals that the proposed tiling strategy improves the sky-localization coverage over naive contour-covering method. The improvement is more significant for observations conducted using larger field of view telescopes, or for observations conducted over smaller confidence interval of gravitational wave sky-localization probability distribution. Next, we investigate the performance of the tiling strategy for telescope arrays and compare their performance against monolithic giant field of view telescopes. We observed that distributing the field of view of the telescopes into arrays of multiple telescopes significantly improves the coverage efficiency by as much as 50% over a single large FOV telescope in 2016 localizations while scanning around 100 sq. degrees. Finally, we studied the ability of optical counterpart detection by various types of telescopes. In Our analysis for a range of wide field-of-view telescopes we found improvement in detection upon sacrificing coverage of localization in order to achieve greater observation depth for very large field-of-view - small aperture telescopes, especially if the intrinsic brightness of the optical counterparts are weak.Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A. 10 pages, 10 figure

MEN1 Surveillance Guidelines:Time to (re)Think?

Clinical practice guidelines for patients with multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (MEN1) recommend a variety of surveillance options. Given progress over the past decade in this area, it is timely to evaluate their ongoing utility. MEN1 is characterized by the development of synchronous or asynchronous tumors affecting a multitude of endocrine and nonendocrine tissues, resulting in premature morbidity and mortality, such that the rationale for undertaking surveillance screening in at-risk individuals appears robust. Current guidelines recommend an intensive regimen of clinical, biochemical, and radiological surveillance commencing in early childhood for those with a clinical or genetic diagnosis of MEN1, with the aim of early tumor detection and treatment. Although it is tempting to assume that such screening results in patient benefits and improved outcomes, the lack of a strong evidence base for several aspects of MEN1 care, and the potential for iatrogenic harms related to screening tests or interventions of unproven benefit, make such assumptions potentially unsound. Furthermore, the psychological as well as economic burdens of intensive screening remain largely unstudied. Although screening undoubtedly constitutes an important component of MEN1 patient care, this perspective aims to highlight some of the current uncertainties and challenges related to existing MEN1 guidelines with a particular focus on the role of screening for presymptomatic tumors. Looking forward, a screening approach that acknowledges these limitations and uncertainties and places the patient at the heart of the decision-making process is advocated

Monitoring asthma in childhood : symptoms, exacerbations and quality of life

Acknowledgements The Task Force members and their affiliations are as follows. Paul L.P. Brand: Princess Amalia Children’s Centre, Isala Hospital, Zwolle, and UMCG Postgraduate School of Medicine, University Medical Centre and University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; Mika J. Mäkelä: Skin and Allergy Hospital, Helsinki University Hospital, Helsinki, Finland; Stanley J. Szefler: Children’s Hospital Colorado and University of Colorado Denver School of Medicine, Denver, CO, USA; Thomas Frischer: Dept of Paediatrics and Paediatric Surgery, Wilhelminenspital, Vienna, Austria; David Price: Dept of Primary Care Respiratory Medicine, Academic Primary Care, Division of Applied Health Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK; Eugenio Baraldi: Women’s and Children’s Health Dept, Unit of Respiratory Medicine and Allergy, University of Padova, Padova, Italy; Kai-Hakon Carlsen: Dept of Paediatrics, Women and Children’s Division, University of Oslo, and Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, Norway; Ernst Eber: Respiratory and Allergic Disease Division, Dept of Paediatrics and Adolescence Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria; Gunilla Hedlin: Dept of Women’s and Children’s Health and Centre for Allergy Research, Karolinska Institutet, and Astrid Lindgren Children’s hospital, Stockholm, Sweden; Neeta Kulkarni: Leicestershire Partnership Trust and Dept of Infection, Immunity and Inflammation, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK; Christiane Lex: Dept of Paediatric Cardiology and Intensive Care Medicine, Division of Paediatric Respiratory Medicine, University Hospital Goettingen, Goettingen, Germany; Karin C. Lødrup Carlsen: Dept of Paediatrics, Women and Children’s Division, Oslo University Hospital, and Dept of Paediatrics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; Eva Mantzouranis: Dept of Paediatrics, University Hospital of Heraklion, University of Crete, Heraklion, Greece; Alexander Moeller: Division of Respiratory Medicine, University Children’s Hospital Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Ian Pavord: Dept of Respiratory Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Giorgio Piacentini: Paediatric Section, Dept of Life and Reproduction Sciences, University of Verona, Verona, Italy; Mariëlle W. Pijnenburg: Dept Paediatrics/Paediatric Respiratory Medicine, Erasmus MC - Sophia Children’s Hospital, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Bart L. Rottier: Dept of Pediatric Pulmonology and Allergology, GRIAC Research Institute, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; Sejal Saglani: Leukocyte Biology and Respiratory Paediatrics, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London, London, UK; Peter D. Sly: Queensland Children’s Medical Research Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia; Steve Turner: Dept of Paediatrics, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK; Edwina Wooler: Royal Alexandra Children’s Hospital, Brighton, UK.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Association of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide with cognitive function and depression in elderly people with type 2 diabetes

<p>Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus is associated with risk of congestive heart failure (CHF), cognitive dysfunction and depression. CHF itself is linked both to poor cognition and depression. The ventricular N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a marker of CHF, suggesting potential as a marker for cognitive impairment and/or depression. This was tested in the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study (ET2DS).</p> <p>Methodology and Principal Findings: Cross-sectional analysis of 1066 men and women aged 60–75 with type 2 diabetes. Results from seven neuropsychological tests were combined in a standardised general cognitive ability factor, ‘g’. A vocabulary-based test estimated pre-morbid cognitive ability. The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) assessed possible depression. After adjustment for age and sex, raised plasma NT-proBNP was weakly associated with lower ‘g’ and higher depression scores (ß −0.09, 95% CI −0.13 to −0.03, p = 0.004 and ß 0.08, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.12, p<0.001, respectively). Comparing extreme quintiles of NT-proBNP, subjects in the highest quintile were more likely to have reduced cognitive ability (within the lowest tertile of ‘g’) and ‘possible’ depression (HADS depression ≥8) (OR 1.80; 95% CI: 1.20, 2.70; p = 0.005 and OR 2.18; 95% CI: 1.28, 3.71; p = 0.004, respectively). Associations persisted when pre-morbid ability was adjusted for, but as expected were no longer statistically significant following the adjustment for diabetes-related and vascular co-variates (β −0.02, 95% CI −0.07 to 0.03, p>0.05 for ‘g’; β 0.03, 95% CI −0.02 to 0.07, p>0.05 for depression scores).</p> <p>Conclusion: Raised plasma NT-proBNP was weakly but statistically significantly associated with poorer cognitive function and depression. The prospective phases of the ET2DS will help determine whether or not NT-proBNP can be considered a risk marker for subsequent cognitive impairment and incident depression and whether it provides additional information over and above traditional risk factors for these conditions.</p&gt

Inhomogeneous Cosmology using General Relativistic Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics coupled to Numerical Relativity

We perform three-dimensional simulations of homogeneous and inhomogeneous cosmologies via the coupling of a numerical relativity code for spacetime evolution and smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) code. Evolution of a flat dust and radiation dominated Friedmann-Lema\^itre-Roberston-Walker (FLRW) spacetime shows an agreement of exact solutions with residuals on the order $10^{-6}$ and $10^{-3}$ respectively, even at low grid resolutions. We demonstrate evolution of linear perturbations of density, velocity and metric quantities to the FLRW with residuals of only $10^{-2}$ compared to exact solutions. Finally, we demonstrate the evolution of non-linear perturbations of the metric past shell-crossing, such that dark matter halo formation is possible. We show that numerical relativistic smoothed particle hydrodynamics is a viable method for understanding non-linear effects in cosmology.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures, submitted to PR

Physical soil quality indicators for monitoring British soils

The condition or quality of soils determines its ability to deliver a range of functions that support ecosystem services, human health and wellbeing. The increasing policy imperative to implement successful soil monitoring programmes has resulted in the demand for reliable soil quality indicators (SQIs) for physical, biological and chemical soil properties. The selection of these indicators needs to ensure that they are sensitive and responsive to pressure and change e.g. they change across space and time in relation to natural perturbations and land management practices. Using a logical sieve approach based on key policy-related soil functions, this research assessed whether physical soil properties can be used to indicate the quality of British soils in terms of its capacity to deliver ecosystem goods and services. The resultant prioritised list of physical SQIs were tested for robustness, spatial and temporal variability and expected rate of change using statistical analysis and modelling. Six SQIs were prioritised; packing density, soil water retention characteristics, aggregate stability, rate of erosion, depth of soil and soil sealing. These all have direct relevance to current and likely future soil and environmental policy and are appropriate for implementation in soil monitoring programs

MODELING FISH LENGTH DISTRIBUTION USING A MIXTURE TECHNIQUE

In fisheries science, length and age are important aspects of fish life history. Length is a function of growth, which provides an integrated measure of the environmental and endogenous conditions, e.g. genetics, affecting individuals and populations. Length at age data can be used to assess quality and quantity of habitat, food availability, or the need for and influence of management activities. Statistical mixture techniques may be used as a means to effectively model fish length distribution. A three-component mixture model, based on normal variates, was employed to describe length distribution in mountain whitefish species. The resulting model provided parameter estimates with meaningful biological interpretations, which were in turn used for inferential and comparative purposes. The technique will be demonstrated with reference to seven years of bio-monitoring data collected from the Kootenai River in Northern Idaho prior to and post nutrient addition treatment