Is there Evidence of Pessimism and Doubt in Subjective Distributions? A Comment on Abel

Abel (2002) shows that pessimism and doubt in the subjective distribution of the growth rate of consumption reduce the riskfree rate puzzle and the equity premium puzzle. We quantify the amount of pessimism and doubt in survey data on US consumption and income. Individual forecasters are in fact pessimistic, but show marked overconfidence rather than doubt. Whether this implies that overconfidence should be built into Abel's model depends on how the empirically heterogeneous subjective distributions are mapped into the distribution of a fictitious representative agent. We work out the form of this mapping in an Arrow-Debreu economy and show that the equity premium increases with the dispersion of beliefs. We then estimate this aggregate distribution and find little evidence of either overconfidence or doubt.equity premium; riskfree rate; aggregation of beliefs; Survey of Professional Forecasters; Livingston Survey

Solution of Macromodels with Hansen-Sargent Robust Policies: Some Extensions

We summarize some methods useful in formulating and solving Hansen-Sargent robust control problems, and suggest extensions to discretion and simple rules. Matlab, Octave, and Gauss software is provided. We illustrate these extensions with applications to the term structure of interest rates, the time inconsistency of optimal monetary policy, the effects of expectations on the variances of inflation and output, and on whether central banks should make their forecasts public.robustness; model uncertainty; discretion; simple rules

Inflation Forecast Uncertainty

We study the inflation uncertainty reported by individual forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters 1969-2001. Three popular measures of uncertainty built from survey data are analyzed in the context of models for forecasting and asset pricing, and improved estimation methods are suggested. Popular time series models are evaluated for their ability to reproduce survey measures of uncertainty. The results show that disagreement is a better proxy of inflation uncertainty than what previous literature has indicated, and that forecasters underestimate inflation uncertainty. We obtain similar results for output growth uncertainty.survey data; Survey of Professional Forecasters; GDP growth; VAR; T-GARCH

Is There Evidence of Pessimism and Doubt in Subjective Distributions? A Comment on Abel

Abel (2002) shows that pessimism and doubt in the subjective distribution of the growth rate of consumption reduce the riskfree rate puzzle and the equity premium puzzle. We quantify the amount of pessimism and doubt in survey data on US consumption and income. Individual forecasters are in fact pessimistic, but show marked overconfidence rather than doubt. Whether this implies that overconfidence should be built into Abel's model depends on how the empirically heterogeneous subjective distributions are mapped into the distribution of a fictitious representative agent. We work out the form of this mapping in an Arrow-Debreu economy and show that the equity premium increases with the dispersion of beliefs. We then estimate this aggregate distribution and find little evidence of either overconfidence or doubt.Equity premium; Riskfree rate; Aggregation of beliefs; Survey of Professional Forecasters; Livingston Survey

As mudanças na estrutura, conduta e desempenho das cooperativas de crédito no Brasil no período de 2016 a 2020

O presente trabalho teve como objetivo avaliar as mudanças no cooperativismo de crédito no período de 2016 a 2020 utilizando o relatório emitido pelo Banco Central sobre o setor. No entanto, além do relatório e suas valiosas informações, foi agregado ao trabalho à parte teórica conceitual de Estrutura, Conduta e Desempenho, teoria essa que faz parte originalmente da Teoria das Organizações Industriais, todavia foi adaptada para o ambiente do cooperativismo de crédito. A história do cooperativismo no Brasil também é trazida para contextualizar o presente momento. Por fim, são utilizados os gráficos disponíveis no relatório para traçar paralelos com a parte conceitual do trabalho e verificar o presente e, sobretudo o futuro do cooperativismo de crédito no país, uma vez que utilizando a teoria é possível analisar como as mudanças feitas nos últimos anos irão impactar o setor nos anos seguintes.The present work aimed to evaluate how changes in credit cooperativism in the period from 2016 to 2020 using the report released by the Central Bank on the sector. However, in addition to the report and its valuable information, the conceptual theoretical part of Structure, Conduct and Performance was added to the work, a theory that is originally part of the Theory of Industrial Organizations, however it was adapted to the environment of credit cooperativism. The history of cooperativism in Brazil is also brought to contextualize the present moment. Finally, the graphs available in the report are used to draw parallels with the conceptual part of the work and verify the present and, above all, the future of credit unions in the country, since using the theory it is possible to analyze how the changes made in the last years will impact the sector in the following years

Patterns of traumatic brain injury and six-month neuropsychological outcomes in Uganda

Abstract Background Traumatic brain injuries in Uganda are on the increase, however little is known about the neuropsychological outcomes in survivors. This study characterized patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI) and the associated six-month neuropsychological outcomes in a Ugandan tertiary hospital. Methods Patients admitted at Mulago Hospital with head injury from November 2015 to April 2016 were prospectively enrolled during admission and followed up at six months after discharge to assess cognition, posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS), depression symptoms and physical disability. The outcomes were compared to a non-head-injury group recruited from among the caretakers, siblings and neighbours of the patients with age and sex entered as covariates. Results One hundred and seventy-one patients and 145 non-head injury participants were enrolled. The age range for the whole sample was 1 to 69 years with the non-head injury group being older (mean age (SD) 33.34 (13.35) vs 29.34 (14.13) years of age, p = 0.01). Overall, motorcycle crashes (36/171, 38.6%) and being hit by an object (58/171, 33.9%) were the leading causes of TBI. Head injury from falls occurred more frequently in children < 18 years (13.8% vs 2.8%, p = 0.03). In adults 18 years and older, patients had higher rates of neurocognitive impairment (28.4% vs 6.6%, p < 0.0001), PTSS (43.9% vs 7.9%, p < 0.0001), depression symptoms (55.4% vs 10%, p < 0.0001) and physical disability (7.2% vs 0%, p = 0.002). Lower Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) on admission was associated with neurocognitive impairment (11.6 vs 13.1, p = 0.04) and physical disability (10 vs 12.9, p = 0.01) six months later. Conclusion This first such study in the East-African region shows that depth of coma on admission in TBI is associated with neurocognitive impairment and physical disability.https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147735/1/12883_2019_Article_1246.pd

Evoked potentials as biomarkers of hereditary spastic paraplegias : a case-control study

Introduction: The Hereditary Spastic Paraplegias (HSP) are a group of genetic diseases that lead to slow deterioration of locomotion. Clinical scales seem to have low sensitivity in detecting disease progression, making the search for additional biomarkers a paramount task. This study aims to evaluate the role of evoked potentials (EPs) as disease biomarkers of HSPs. Methods: A single center cross-sectional case-control study was performed, in which 18 individuals with genetic diagnosis of HSP and 21 healthy controls were evaluated. Motor evoked potentials (MEP) obtained with transcranial magnetic stimulation and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP) were performed in lower (LL) and upper limbs (UL). Results: Central motor conduction time in lower limbs (CMCT-LL) was prolonged in HSP subjects, with marked reductions in MEP-LL amplitudes when compared to the control group (p<0.001 for both comparisons). CMCT-UL was 3.59ms (95% CI: 0.73 to 6.46; p = 0.015) prolonged and MEP-UL amplitudes were reduced (p = 0.008) in the HSP group. SSEP-LL latencies were prolonged in HSP subjects when compared to controls (p<0.001), with no statistically significant differences for upper limbs (p = 0.147). SSEP-UL and SSEP-LL latencies presented moderate to strong correlations with age at onset (Rho = 0.613, p = 0.012) and disease duration (Rho = 0.835, p<0.001), respectively. Similar results were obtained for the SPG4 subgroups of patients. Conclusion: Motor and somatosensory evoked potentials can adequately differentiate HSP individuals from controls. MEP were severely affected in HSP subjects and SSEP-LL latencies were prolonged, with longer latencies being related to more severe disease. Future longitudinal studies should address if SSEP is a sensitive disease progression biomarker for HSP

The Quantity Theory of Money is Valid. The New Keynesians are Wrong!

We test the quantity theory of money (QTM) using a novel approach and a large new sample. We do not follow the usual approach of first differentiating the logarithm of the Cambridge equation to obtain an equation relating the growth rate of real GDP, the growth rate of money and inflation. These variables must then again be ‘integrated’ by averaging in order to obtain stable relationships. Instead we suggest a much simpler procedure for testing directly the stability of the coefficient of the Cambridge equation. For 125 countries and post-war data we find the coefficient to be surprisingly stable. We do not select for high inflation episodes as was done in most empirical studies; inflation rates do not even appear in our data set. Much work supporting the QTM has been done by economic historians and at the University of Chicago by Milton Friedman and his associates. The QTM was a foundation stone of the monetarist revolution. Subsequently belief in it waned. The currently dominant New Keynesian School, implicitly or explicitly denies the validity of the QTM. We survey this history and argue that the QTM is valid and New Keynesians are wrong