Educational differences in fertility desires, intentions and behaviour: a life course perspective

Despite a long tradition of studying the relationship between education and fertility outcomes less is known about how educational differences in fertility intentions are formed and translated into achieved births over the life course. This paper provides new insights using data from a large cohort study and Miller’s Traits-Desires-Intentions-Behaviour framework for understanding childbearing. We examine how parental aspirations for education, educational ability in childhood, and educational attainment in young adulthood relate to: males’ and females’ fertility desires in adolescence; fertility intentions in early adulthood; and educational differences in the achievement of fertility intentions. We conclude that family building preferences expressed in adolescence, especially those for the timing of entry into parenthood are shaped by parental socio-economic background, mediated through educational ability and parental expectations for education. In young adulthood, no clear, consistent educational gradient in intended family size is found. However, there is a negative educational gradient in the likelihood of achieving intended births by age 46, especially for women. The findings indicate the importance of educational differences in employment and partnership behaviour in mediating these relationships

Working Paper: Is there a consistent pattern in benefit sanctions rates by Jobcentre Plus offices in Scotland?

Within the debate on labour market activation policies and the public discussion on unemployment benefit sanctions and their effectiveness in raising transition rates back to employment, increasing attention has been paid on the role of caseworkers in employment offices. Caseworkers’ behavioural decisions may be influenced by a combination of factors, such as available resources, personal characteristics and attitudes, which may lead to different sanction outcomes for unemployed people. This working paper aims to identify whether there are consistent patterns in benefit sanctions rates across local employment offices (i.e. Jobcentre Plus offices) in Scotland. I used data from official UK government statistics covering monthly counts of unemployment benefit claimants and adverse sanctions for 93 Jobcentre Plus offices, for the period between April 2004 and September 2015. In this working paper, I provide a descriptive account of Job Seeker’s Allowance (JSA) sanction rates and contrast trends before and after October 2012, the month which marked the introduction of a new JSA sanctioning regime, characterised by more severe and lengthened sanctions

Using Linked Longitudinal Administrative Data to Identify Social Disadvantage

Administrative data are widely used to construct indicators of social disadvantage, such as Free School Meals eligibility and Indices of Multiple Deprivation, for policy purposes. For research these indicators are often a compromise between accuracy and simplicity, because they rely on cross-sectional data. The growing availability of longitudinal administrative data may aid construction of more accurate indicators for research. To illustrate this potential, we use administrative data on welfare benefits from DWP’s National Benefits Database and annual earnings from employment from HMRC’s P14/P60 data to reconstruct individual labour market histories over a 5-year period. These administrative datasets were linked to survey data from the Poverty and Social Exclusion UK 2012. Results from descriptive and logistic regression analyses show that longitudinal measures correlate highly with survey responses on the same topic and are stronger predictors of poverty risks than measures based on cross-sectional data. These results suggest that longitudinal administrative measures would have potentially wide-ranging applications in policy as well as poverty research

Visualizing fertility trends for 45 countries using composite lattice plots

Background: The Human Fertility Database (HFD) and Human Fertility Collection (HFC) provide disaggregated data on age-specific fertility rates for 45 countries. These sources offer the opportunity to learn about the development of different pathways of transition to low fertility both within and between countries. Objective: The aim of this paper is to use composite fertility lattice plots, which combine information from different visualization techniques of the Lexis surface, namely level plots and contour plots, to explore changes in age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and the implied (period-based) cumulative cohort fertility rates (cumulative pseudo cohort fertility rates, CPCFRs) across countries and geographic regions. Methods: Through key examples we introduce a new refinement of the Lexis surface, combining level plots, which use colour/shade to indicate ASFRs, and contour lines to indicate fertility milestones for given cohorts (CPCFRs). We have also developed a web-based app to allow researchers to produce their own fertility Lexis surfaces. Results: Results show that once countries have fallen below a replacement fertility level, they tend to not return to it. Exceptions are Norway and the United States, which saw rising fertility rates for cohorts born after the 1950s and late 1960s respectively. The age-specific fertility trends, as well as broader political and socioeconomic conditions, are very different in these countries, suggesting different paths by which replacement fertility rates might be achieved. Contribution: Complex data visualizations show, in an intuitive way, how ASFRs are related to successive cohorts’ fertility milestones (CPCFRs). Combining this information enables us to explore differences between countries and can make an important contribution to comparative fertility research

Labour Market and Wider Impacts of Benefit Sanctions: A Scoping Review [Review Protocol]

The purpose of this protocol is to describe the rationale, aims, research questions and planned methodology of the scoping review. Broadly in line with Tricco et al. (2018) we have developed a detailed plan of action with a view to follow a clear, consistent and transparent process. The scoping review is envisaged as an exploratory exercise aimed at identifying and mapping existing national and international quantitative evidence on the intended and unintended impacts of benefit sanctions for people on unemployment and related benefits. This review is intended to identify the nature of the evidence base and key characteristics of studies which investigate the impacts of benefit sanctions. Furthermore, this review aims to investigate features of the research designs and methodological approaches adopted by the selected studies

Ethnic inequalities in positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, infection prognosis, COVID-19 hospitalisations, and deaths : analysis of two years of a record linked national cohort study in Scotland

Funding: Economics and Social Research Council (ESRC) ES/W000849/1, Medical Research Council (MRC) MC_UU_00022/2, Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office SPHSU17.BACKGROUND: This study aims to estimate ethnic inequalities in risk for positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, COVID-19 hospitalisations and deaths over time in Scotland. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cohort study where the 2011 Scottish Census was linked to health records. We included all individuals≥16 years living in Scotland on 1 March 2020. The study period was from 1 March 2020 to 17 April 2022. Self-reported ethnic group was taken from the census and Cox proportional hazard models estimated HRs for positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, hospitalisations and deaths, adjusted for age, sex and health board. We also conducted separate analyses for each of the four waves of COVID-19 to assess changes in risk over time. FINDINGS: Of the 4 358 339 individuals analysed, 1 093 234 positive SARS-CoV-2 tests, 37 437 hospitalisations and 14 158 deaths occurred. The risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death among ethnic minority groups was often higher for White Gypsy/Traveller (HR 2.21, 95% CI (1.61 to 3.06)) and Pakistani 2.09 (1.90 to 2.29) groups compared with the white Scottish group. The risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death following confirmed positive SARS-CoV-2 test was particularly higher for White Gypsy/Traveller 2.55 (1.81-3.58), Pakistani 1.75 (1.59-1.73) and African 1.61 (1.28-2.03) individuals relative to white Scottish individuals. However, the risk of COVID-19-related death following hospitalisation did not differ. The risk of COVID-19 outcomes for ethnic minority groups was higher in the first three waves compared with the fourth wave. INTERPRETATION: Most ethnic minority groups were at increased risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in Scotland, especially White Gypsy/Traveller and Pakistani groups. Ethnic inequalities persisted following community infection but not following hospitalisation, suggesting differences in hospital treatment did not substantially contribute to ethnic inequalities.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Biological, clinical and population relevance of 95 loci for blood lipids.

Plasma concentrations of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides are among the most important risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD) and are targets for therapeutic intervention. We screened the genome for common variants associated with plasma lipids in >100,000 individuals of European ancestry. Here we report 95 significantly associated loci (P < 5 x 10(-8)), with 59 showing genome-wide significant association with lipid traits for the first time. The newly reported associations include single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) near known lipid regulators (for example, CYP7A1, NPC1L1 and SCARB1) as well as in scores of loci not previously implicated in lipoprotein metabolism. The 95 loci contribute not only to normal variation in lipid traits but also to extreme lipid phenotypes and have an impact on lipid traits in three non-European populations (East Asians, South Asians and African Americans). Our results identify several novel loci associated with plasma lipids that are also associated with CAD. Finally, we validated three of the novel genes-GALNT2, PPP1R3B and TTC39B-with experiments in mouse models. Taken together, our findings provide the foundation to develop a broader biological understanding of lipoprotein metabolism and to identify new therapeutic opportunities for the prevention of CAD

New genetic loci implicated in fasting glucose homeostasis and their impact on type 2 diabetes risk.

Levels of circulating glucose are tightly regulated. To identify new loci influencing glycemic traits, we performed meta-analyses of 21 genome-wide association studies informative for fasting glucose, fasting insulin and indices of beta-cell function (HOMA-B) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) in up to 46,186 nondiabetic participants. Follow-up of 25 loci in up to 76,558 additional subjects identified 16 loci associated with fasting glucose and HOMA-B and two loci associated with fasting insulin and HOMA-IR. These include nine loci newly associated with fasting glucose (in or near ADCY5, MADD, ADRA2A, CRY2, FADS1, GLIS3, SLC2A2, PROX1 and C2CD4B) and one influencing fasting insulin and HOMA-IR (near IGF1). We also demonstrated association of ADCY5, PROX1, GCK, GCKR and DGKB-TMEM195 with type 2 diabetes. Within these loci, likely biological candidate genes influence signal transduction, cell proliferation, development, glucose-sensing and circadian regulation. Our results demonstrate that genetic studies of glycemic traits can identify type 2 diabetes risk loci, as well as loci containing gene variants that are associated with a modest elevation in glucose levels but are not associated with overt diabetes