The impact of the withdrawal from Afghanistan on Russia’s security. Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 54, March 2014

ISAF’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014 will directly impact the wider region. Not only is there a risk of instability spilling over to Central Asia, but the drawdown will also accelerate the ongoing shift in the balance of power in Central Asia towards China. Should a spillover occur, the burden will mainly fall on Russia and China. Russia will, however, only continue playing the dominant role in the security of the former Soviet Central Asia (FSCA) until China takes on responsibility for the security of its direct sphere of influence or “dingwei”. Russia’s Near Abroad, however, overlaps both with the EU’s Eastern Neighbourhood in Europe and China’s dingwei in Central Asia and the Far East. It is, therefore, necessary to approach Russian reactions to these encroachments on its historical spheres of influence in a single context, taking into account the interrelationship between these three

Beyond Russia’s ‘Versailles syndrome’. Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 58, November 2014

Russia alleges that at the end of the Cold War it underwent a soft version of a Versailles Treaty, pushing it into the periphery of global politics and cutting it out of European decision-making. The crisis in Ukraine is about the survival of Putin’s regime and the dismantling of the post-Cold War settlement. We should not accept the fallacious narrative of victimhood propagated by the Kremlin’s Versailles syndrome. Even so, it is time to explore practical ways of coexisting with Russia. The Helsinki Process and the disarmament and arms control agreements of the Cold War could serve as a model for a mutually acceptable security architecture

Application of Iterative Robust Model-based Optimal Experimental Design for the Calibration of Biocatalytic Models

The aim of model calibration is to estimate unique parameter values from available experimental data, here applied to a biocatalytic process. The traditional approach of first gathering data followed by performing a model calibration is inefficient, since the information gathered during experimentation is not actively used to optimize the experimental design. By applying an iterative robust model-based optimal experimental design, the limited amount of data collected is used to design additional informative experiments. The algorithm is used here to calibrate the initial reaction rate of an ω-transaminase catalyzed reaction in a more accurate way. The parameter confidence region estimated from the Fisher Information Matrix is compared with the likelihood confidence region, which is not only more accurate but also a computationally more expensive method. As a result, an important deviation between both approaches is found, confirming that linearization methods should be applied with care for nonlinear models

Geopolitical shifts in the Eastern Mediterranean. Security Policy Brief No. 43, February 2013

Three major geopolitical events are putting the stability of the Eastern Mediterranean at risk. Most of the region is in a deep monetary and economic crisis. The Arab Spring is causing turmoil in the Levant and the Maghreb. Gas and oil discoveries, if not well managed, could further destabilise the region. At the same time, Russia and Turkey are staging a comeback. In the face of these challenges, the EU approaches the Greek sovereign debt crisis nearly exclusively from a financial and economic viewpoint. This brief argues that the EU has to develop a comprehensive strategy for the region, complementing its existing multilateral regional framework with bilateral agreements in order to secure its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean

The impact of global warming on the geopolitics of the Arctic. A historical opportunity for Russia? Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 8, March 2010

Climate change will cause major physical, ecological, economic, social, and geopolitical adjustments. Arctic melting is providing new opportunities, not only to the five littoral states, but also to other major powers. However, Russia stands to gain most. Not only can it claim a major part of the Arctic, thus acquiring additional sovereign rights for the purpose of exploiting natural resources, but for the first time it will have unhindered access to the open seas and be in the position of controlling important sea routes. If exploitation of the Arctic and the use of new sea-lanes can be developed in a controlled manner, the Arctic need not become a region of confrontation. However, a long-term risk continues to exist of Arctic melting provoking a race for the North Pole area

A new security architecture for Europe? Russian proposal and western reactions. Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 3, November 2009

After the disbandment of the Warsaw Pact, Russia pinned its hopes on the dissolution of NATO and on the OSCE becoming the major regional security organisation in the Euro-Atlantic area. However, taking advantage of Russia’s weakness, NATO went through several enlargement rounds, even incorporating parts of the former Soviet Union. Russia has now recovered and considers that the era of unipolarity is giving way to a "polycentric international system". The war in Georgia and the financial crisis have demonstrated that sufficient critical mass has been achieved to transform the international system. Russia is proposing to fix de jure the political commitments undertaken within the OSCE and the NATO-Russia Council. Russia wants a legally binding document, a European Security Treaty. The question is to what extent this is in the interest of the West

A new security architecture for Europe? Russian proposals and western reactions Part II. Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 10, April 2010

Part II of the Security Brief on the Russian proposals for a New Security Architecture for Europe focuses on the Russian drafts for a "European Security Treaty" and for an "Agreement Governing Relations among NATO-Russia council Member States in the Security Sphere." It questions what added value, if any, these proposals have for enhancing security in the Euro-Atlantic region. It argues that the Corfu process seems a more realistic way forward. It should focus on pragmatic adaptations of existing institutions, procedures and instruments in order to overcome Cold War stereotypes that still survive two decades after the implosion of the Soviet Union

Countering Afghan narcotics: a litmus test for effective NATO and Russia cooperation? Egmont Security Policy Brief No. 14, September 2010

Afghan opiates kill 100,000 people a year globally. Every year NATO countries lose over 10,000 people to heroin overdoses. In Russia an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 people die of drug overdoses yearly. Counter-narcotics in Afghanistan is an area where NATO’s and Russia’s interests clearly coincide. If NATO and Russia cannot find a way of effectively cooperating in this matter, not only will the Afghan narcotic problem spiral completely out of control, but NATO-Russia cooperation could come under pressure

Time to restore conventional deterrence-by-denial. Egmont Commentary, 17 June 2016

We are on the very brink of a new Cold War. Hybrid War has kept Western analysts in awe although it is highly unlikely that it would be successful against a Nato member. The disproportion of conventional war-fighting capabilities along the eastern borders of the Alliance is the real challenge. NATO has to rebuild a credible conventional deterrence-by-denial. Concurrently, the Alliance and Russia have to commit to political dialogue and revive the arms control regime, in the first place to avoid accidental escalation