Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis

This paper develops a multi-country overlapping-generations general equilibrium model to gauge the economic impacts of demographic changes in the global economy and its transmission effects on different countries. Although severe demographic pressures contribute to significantly lower real GDP per capita across several regions in the world, globalisation through international trade generates an improvement in the terms of trade of older OECD countries, which sustains their real consumption per capita, while globalisation through capital flows stimulates capital deepening and therefore growth in younger countries such as India and various parts of the Rest of the World. The general equilibrium nature of the ageing process is crucial to understand the net foreign asset dynamics of countries during the demographic transition, and this is particularly relevant for a country like China that is caught, in the global economy, between relatively older and younger countries. On this regard China, unlike older countries, does not benefit from a terms of trade improvement which could otherwise sustain its consumption, nor does it benefit, unlike India, from capital deepening, which could otherwise sustain its GDP growth.Inequality Demographic transition, ageing, globalisation, overlapping generations, computable general equilibrium modeling

Massive star models with magnetic braking

Magnetic fields at the surface of a few early-type stars have been directly detected. These fields have magnitudes between a few hundred G up to a few kG. In one case, evidence of magnetic braking has been found. We investigate the effects of magnetic braking on the evolution of rotating ($\upsilon_{\rm ini}$=200 km s$^{-1}$) 10 M$_\odot$ stellar models at solar metallicity during the main-sequence (MS) phase. The magnetic braking process is included in our stellar models according to the formalism deduced from 2D MHD simulations of magnetic wind confinement by ud-Doula and co-workers. Various assumptions are made regarding both the magnitude of the magnetic field and of the efficiency of the angular momentum transport mechanisms in the stellar interior. When magnetic braking occurs in models with differential rotation, a strong and rapid mixing is obtained at the surface accompanied by a rapid decrease in the surface velocity. Such a process might account for some MS stars showing strong mixing and low surface velocities. When solid-body rotation is imposed in the interior, the star is slowed down so rapidly that surface enrichments are smaller than in similar models with no magnetic braking. In both kinds of models (differentially or uniformly rotating), magnetic braking due to a field of a few 100 G significantly reduces the angular momentum of the core during the MS phase. This reduction is much greater in solid-body rotating models.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication as a Letter in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Dispensing with NAFTA Rules of Origin? Some Policy Options for Canada

Increased market access from Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) promised by policy makers is often diluted by preferential rules of origin (ROO). This paper discusses two policy options one direct, and one indirect -- with regard to limiting the impact of NAFTA ROO on trade, and illustrates the impact on GDP and welfare of these options using a computable general equilibrium methodology. The first (direct) option, moving toward a North American Customs Union (CU) instead of the current NAFTA, would basically eliminate the need for preferential ROO among members of the CU. The second (indirect) policy option is to pursue multilateral trade negotiations and reduce MFN tariffs towards zero. In this context, NAFTA ROO would lack both relevance and impact, even if they remained on the books, because tariff preference utilization among NAFTA members would virtually disappear. The current stalemate at the WTO Doha round suggests that a North American CU remains a serious policy option. However, the erosion of NAFTA tariff preferences since the phase-in of the Uruguay round has also reduced the distortionary impacts of NAFTA ROO, somewhat limiting the gains that a CU could bring.Trade Agreement; Customs Union; Rules of Origin; Multilateral Free Trade Computable General Equilibrium Modeling

Star-planet interactions: I. Stellar rotation and planetary orbits

Context. As a star evolves, the planet orbits change with time due to tidal interactions, stellar mass losses, friction and gravitational drag forces, mass accretion and evaporation on/by the planet. Stellar rotation modifies the structure of the star and therefore the way these different processes occur. Changes of the orbits, at their turn, have an impact on the rotation of the star. Aims. Models accounting in a consistent way for these interactions between the orbital evolution of the planet and the evolution of the rotation of the star are still missing. The present work is a first attempt to fill this gap. Methods. We compute the evolution of stellar models including a comprehensive treatment of rotational effects together with the evolution of planetary orbits, so that the exchanges of angular momentum between the star and the planetary orbit are treated in a self-consistent way. The evolution of the rotation of the star accounts for the angular momentum exchange with the planet and also follows the effects of the internal transport of angular momentum and chemicals. Results. We show that rotating stellar models without tidal interactions can well reproduce the surface rotations of the bulk of the red giants. However, models without any interactions cannot account for fast rotating red giants in the upper part of the red giant branch, where, such models, whatever the initial rotation considered on the ZAMS, always predict very low velocities. For those stars some interaction with a companion is highly probable and the present rotating stellar models with planets confirm that tidal interaction can reproduce their high surface velocities. We show also that the minimum distance between the planet and the star on the ZAMS that will allow the planet to avoid engulfment and survive is decreased around faster rotating stars. [abridged]Comment: 14 pages, abstract abridged for arXiv submission, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Star-planet interactions. IV. Possibility of detecting the orbit-shrinking of a planet around a red giant

The surface rotations of some red giants are so fast that they must have been spun up by tidal interaction with a close companion, either another star, a brown dwarf, or a planet. We focus here on the case of red giants that are spun up by tidal interaction with a planet. When the distance between the planet and the star decreases, the spin period of the star decreases, the orbital period of the planet decreases, and the reflex motion of the star increases. We study the change rate of these three quantities when the circular orbit of a planet of 15 M$_{J}$ that initially orbits a 2 M$_\odot$ star at 1 au shrinks under the action of tidal forces during the red giant phase. We use stellar evolution models coupled with computations of the orbital evolution of the planet, which allows us to follow the exchanges of angular momentum between the star and the orbit in a consistent way. We obtain that the reflex motion of the red giant star increases by more than 1 m s$^{-1}$ per year in the last $\sim$40 years before the planet engulfment. During this phase, the reflex motion of the star is between 660 and 710 m s$^{-1}$. The spin period of the star increases by more than about 10 minutes per year in the last 3000 y before engulfment. During this period, the spin period of the star is shorter than 0.7 year. During this same period, the variation in orbital period, which is shorter than 0.18 year, is on the same order of magnitude. Changes in reflex-motion and spin velocities are very small and thus most likely out of reach of being observed. The most promising way of detecting this effect is through observations of transiting planets, that is, through{\it } changes of the beginning or end of the transit. A space mission like PLATO might be of great interest for detecting planets that are on the verge of being engulfed by red giants.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure