Variance-based sensitivity analysis of a wind risk model - Model behaviour and lessons for forest modelling

We submitted the semi-empirical, process-based wind-risk model ForestGALES to a variance-based sensitivity analysis using the method of Sobol for correlated variables proposed by Kucherenko et al. (2012). Our results show that ForestGALES is able to simulate very effectively the dynamics of wind damage to forest stands, as the model architecture reflects the significant influence of tree height, stocking density, dbh, and size of an upwind gap, on the calculations of the critical wind speeds of damage. These results highlight the importance of accurate knowledge of the values of these variables when calculating the risk of wind damage with ForestGALES. Conversely, rooting depth and soil type, i.e. the model input variables on which the empirical component of ForestGALES that describes the resistance to overturning is based, contribute only marginally to the variation in the outputs. We show that these two variables can confidently be fixed at a nominal value without significantly affecting the model's predictions. The variance-based method used in this study is equally sensitive to the accurate description of the probability distribution functions of the scrutinised variables, as it is to their correlation structure.JRC.C.3-Energy Security, Distribution and Market

Missed carbon emissions from forests: comparing countries' estimates submitted to UNFCCC to biophysical estimates

Reducing forest loss has the potential to reduce global carbon emissions, but paying countries to do so will only work if activities are targeting areas with rapid deforestation or high threat. As of December 2017, 25 countries reported their benchmark greenhouse gas emissions from forests (‘reference levels’) under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, with the aim of receiving payments if they end up releasing less or removing more. There remains however a question as to whether the eventual emission trajectories compared to these reference levels represent real emission reductions, as the benchmarks rely on a variety of different methods and limited datasets. To examine whether the forest areas historically associated with significant emissions are targeted in the reference levels, we compared the forest area estimates submitted by seven countries in Asia and the Pacific (Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Papua New Guinea, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam) with forest area estimates using the Global Forest Change v1.4 (GFC) dataset from 2000–2016, processed to closely match national forest definitions. GFC provides standardised tree cover change data based on biophysical characteristics using an extensive collection of satellite images. We found consistent differences, with most countries reporting considerably less forest loss than the GFC-based analysis. These differences are due to the countries’ selection of activities to report, as well as their choice of forest types and land use, defining the forest areas to be monitored. Our study highlights an urgent need to address the gap between the forests monitored by countries and those sources of emissions. The current approaches, even successfully implemented, may not lead to emission reductions, thereby challenging the effectiveness of carbon payments

Understanding complex relationships between human well-being and land use change in Mozambique using a multi-scale participatory scenario planning process

The path for bringing millions of people out of poverty in Africa is likely to coincide with important changes in land use and land cover (LULC). Envisioning the different possible pathways for agricultural, economic and social development, and their implications for changes in LULC, ecosystem services and society well-being, will improve policy-making. This paper presents a case that uses a multi-scale participatory scenario planning method to facilitate the understanding of the complex interactions between LULC change and the wellbeing of the rural population and their possible future evolution in Mozambique up to 2035. Key drivers of change were identified: the empowerment of civil society, the effective application of legislation and changes in rural technologies (e.g., information and communications technologies and renewable energy sources). Three scenarios were constructed: one characterized by the government promoting large investments; a second scenario characterized by the increase in local community power and public policies to promote small and medium enterprises; and a third, intermediate scenario. All three scenarios highlight qualitative large LULC changes, either driven by large companies or by small and medium scale farmers. The scenarios have different impact in wellbeing and equity, the first one implying a higher rural to urban area migration. The results also show that the effective application of the law can produce different results, from assuring large international investments to assuring the improvement of social services like education, health care and extension services. Successful application of these policies, both for biodiversity and ecosystem services protection, and for the social services needed to improve the well-being of the Mozambican rural population, will have to overcome significant barriers

Engaging End-users to Inform the Development of the Global Standard for the Identification of Key Biodiversity Areas

We report results from an end-user engagement process, convened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), which informed the development of the Global Standard for the Identification of Key Biodiversity Areas. Key Biodiversity Areas are sites contributing significantly to the global persistence of biodiversity. We used a mixed methods approach involving interviews and an online questionnaire with end-users to determine their needs and concerns in relation to the Key Biodiversity Area approach. We found a remarkable level of convergence in end-user opinion on 12 important topics. Four topics resulted in a divergence in end-user opinion requiring further dialogue and consideration, including: (i) the value of a global standard compared to various national approaches; (ii) the prioritisation of Key Biodiversity Areas over other areas; (iii) whether Key Biodiversity Area data should be made freely available; and (iv) whether or not development activities should be permitted in Key Biodiversity Areas. Our results informed the development of the Global Standard for the Identification of Key Biodiversity Areas and a new governance structure, the Key Biodiversity Area Consultative Forum, which provides a mechanism for ongoing dialogue with end-users. We conclude by sharing five good practice recommendations for future end-user engagement processes

Charcoal supply chains from Mabalane to Maputo: Who benefits?

AbstractIn urban centres of Mozambique, charcoal is the major energy source for cooking. Growing demand drives high wood extraction rates over increasing areas of miombo and mopane woodlands. Charcoal production can lead to changes in ecosystem service provision and woodland degradation while also significantly contributing to rural income and, possibly, poverty alleviation. As such, understanding charcoal production and trade has important implications for rural areas and for the sustainable development of woodland resources. Here, we investigate charcoal production and trade through empirical research conducted in Gaza Province, the main charcoal supply area for Maputo, Mozambique.We analyse the present structure of the main charcoal supply chains from Gaza province to Maputo and the profit distribution along them. Seven villages in the Mabalane district, Gaza, at different stages of engagement with the charcoal industry, were selected for investigation. We conducted household surveys and semi-structured interviews with key informants (village leaders, charcoal producers, licence holders, wholesalers, transporters and forest technicians), from May to October 2014.Our results highlight two main charcoal supply chains comprising four main actor groups a) Local small-scale operators producing charcoal on a small-scale with household labour, who sell to wholesalers b) Large-scale operators producing and commercialising large volumes of charcoal using migrant labour, who sell their own production to wholesalers. While charcoal production constitutes an important income source for rural households in Mabalane, under supply chain a) more than 90% of the monetary benefits do not reach local communities and remain with external agents. Two of the main factors impeding the generation of greater revenues at community level are: 1) bureaucratic burdens in obtaining charcoal commercialisation rights in the form of licences; and 2) weak institutional capacities for woodland resource governance.We conclude that access to markets and control over woodlands is key if local communities are to generate greater benefits from charcoal production while aiming at sustainable charcoal production. Strong local institutions for obtaining commercialisation rights and managing woodland resources have to be developed, while the restructuring of the licencing system in favour of small-scale producers and more rigorous control of the regulations could support this process