How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy

The macroeconomic experience of the last decade stressed the importance of jointly studying the growth and business cycle fluctuations behavior of the economy. To analyze this issue, we embed a model of Schumpeterian growth into an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. Results from a Bayesian estimation suggest that Investment risk premia are a key driver of the slump following the Great Recession. Endogenous innovation dynamics amplifies financial crises and helps explain the slow recovery. Moreover, financial conditions also account for a substantial share of R&D Investment dynamics

How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy

The macroeconomic experience of the last decade stressed the importance of jointly studying the growth and business cycle fluctuations behavior of the economy. To analyze this issue, we embed a model of Schumpeterian growth into an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. Results from a Bayesian estimation suggest that Investment risk premia are a key driver of the slump following the Great Recession. Endogenous innovation dynamics amplifies financial crises and helps explain the slow recovery. Moreover, financial conditions also account for a substantial share of R&D Investment dynamics

Drivers of the Post-Crisis Slump in the Eurozone and the US

The Global Crisis led to a sharp contraction and long-lasting slump in both Eurozone and US real activity, but the post-crisis adjustment in the Eurozone and the US shows striking differences. This column argues that financial shocks were key determinants of the 2008-09 Great Recession, for both the Eurozone and the US. The post-2009 slump in the Eurozone mainly reflects a combination of adverse aggregate demand and supply shocks, in particular lower productivity growth, and persistent adverse shocks to capital investment linked to the poor health of the Eurozone financial system. Mono-causal explanations of the persistent slump are thus insufficient. Adverse financial shocks were less persistent for the US

Invasive Group B Streptococcal Disease in Neonates and Infants, Italy, Years 2015–2019

Invasive infections by group B streptococci (iGBS) are the leading cause of sepsis and meningitis in the first three months of life worldwide. The clinical and microbiological characteristics of neonatal and infant iGBS in Italy during the years 2015–2019 were investigated. Voluntary-based surveillance reported 191 cases (67 early-onset (EOD) and 124 late-onset disease (LOD)) and 89 bacterial isolates were received. The main clinical manifestations were sepsis (59.2%) followed by meningitis (21.5%), bacteremia (12.0%) and septic shock (6.3%). Hospitalized preterm babies accounted for one third of iGBS and constituted the most fragile population in terms of mortality (8.2%) and brain damage (16.4%). GBS serotype III was predominant in EOD (56%) and caused almost all LOD (95%). The rate of resistance to clindamycin reached 28.8%. Most of clindamycin-resistant GBS strains (76%) were serotype III-ST17 and possessed the genetic markers of the emerging multidrug resistant (MDR) CC-17 sub-clone. Our data revealed that iGBS is changing since it is increasingly reported as a healthcare-associated infection (22.6%), mainly caused by MDR-CC17. Continuous monitoring of the clinical and microbiological characteristics of iGBS remains of primary importance and it represents, at present, the most effective tool to support prevention strategies and the research on the developing GBS vaccine

Invasive Group B Streptococcal Disease in Neonates and Infants, Italy, Years 2015–2019

Invasive infections by group B streptococci (iGBS) are the leading cause of sepsis and meningitis in the first three months of life worldwide. The clinical and microbiological characteristics of neonatal and infant iGBS in Italy during the years 2015–2019 were investigated. Voluntary-based surveillance reported 191 cases (67 early-onset (EOD) and 124 late-onset disease (LOD)) and 89 bacterial isolates were received. The main clinical manifestations were sepsis (59.2%) followed by meningitis (21.5%), bacteremia (12.0%) and septic shock (6.3%). Hospitalized preterm babies accounted for one third of iGBS and constituted the most fragile population in terms of mortality (8.2%) and brain damage (16.4%). GBS serotype III was predominant in EOD (56%) and caused almost all LOD (95%). The rate of resistance to clindamycin reached 28.8%. Most of clindamycin-resistant GBS strains (76%) were serotype III-ST17 and possessed the genetic markers of the emerging multidrug resistant (MDR) CC-17 sub-clone. Our data revealed that iGBS is changing since it is increasingly reported as a healthcare-associated infection (22.6%), mainly caused by MDR-CC17. Continuous monitoring of the clinical and microbiological characteristics of iGBS remains of primary importance and it represents, at present, the most effective tool to support prevention strategies and the research on the developing GBS vaccine

Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model

Abstract Following the global financial crisis, the Euro Area (EA) has experienced a persistent slump and notable trade balance adjustments, but with pronounced differences across EA Member States. We estimate a multi-country structural macroeconomic model to assess and compare the main drivers of GDP growth and trade balance adjustment across Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. We find that the pronounced post-crisis slump in Italy and Spain was mainly driven by positive saving shocks ('deleveraging') and by an increase in investment and intra-euro risk premia. Fiscal austerity in Spain and the productivity slowdown in Italy have been additional sizable contributors to the economic downturn. The results further suggest that euro depreciation, heightened intra-euro risk premia and subdued investment had a sizable impact on the trade balance reversals in Italy and Spain, which has been offset in France by a strong increase in imports and lower exports

Retrospective Analysis of Six Years of Acute Flaccid Paralysis Surveillance and Polio Vaccine Coverage Reported by Italy, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Bulgaria, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Malta, and Greece

Here we analyzed six years of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance, from 2015 to 2020, of 10 countries linked to the WHO Regional Reference Laboratory, at the Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Italy. The analysis also comprises the polio vaccine coverage available (2015–2019) and enterovirus (EV) identification and typing data. Centralized Information System for Infectious Diseases and Laboratory Data Management System databases were used to obtain data on AFP indicators and laboratory performance and countries’ vaccine coverage from 2015 to 2019. EV isolation, identification, and typing were performed by each country according to WHO protocols. Overall, a general AFP underreporting was observed. Non-Polio Enterovirus (NPEV) typing showed a high heterogeneity: over the years, several genotypes of coxsackievirus and echovirus have been identified. The polio vaccine coverage, for the data available, differs among countries. This evaluation allows for the collection, for the first time, of data from the countries of the Balkan area regarding AFP surveillance and polio vaccine coverage. The need, for some countries, to enhance the surveillance systems and to promote the polio vaccine uptake, in order to maintain the polio-free status, is evident

How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy

The macroeconomic experience of the last decade stressed the importance of jointly studying the growth and business cycle fluctuations behavior of the economy. To analyze this issue, we embed a model of Schumpeterian growth into an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. Results from a Bayesian estimation suggest that Investment risk premia are a key driver of the slump following the Great Recession. Endogenous innovation dynamics amplifies financial crises and helps explain the slow recovery. Moreover, financial conditions also account for a substantial share of R&D Investment dynamics

How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel for the US Economy JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance, 2017/1

The macroeconomic experience of the last decade stressed the importance of jointly studying the growth and business cycle fluctuations behavior of the economy. To analyze this issue, we embed a model of Schumpeterian growth into an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. Results from a Bayesian estimation suggest that investment risk premia are a key driver of the slump following the Great Recession. Endogenous innovation dynamics amplifies financial crises and helps explain the slow recovery. Moreover, financial conditions also account for a substantial share of R&D investment dynamics.JRC.B.1-Finance and Econom