A nonparametric urn-based approach to interacting failing systems with an application to credit risk modeling

In this paper we propose a new nonparametric approach to interacting failing systems (FS), that is systems whose probability of failure is not negligible in a fixed time horizon, a typical example being firms and financial bonds. The main purpose when studying a FS is to calculate the probability of default and the distribution of the number of failures that may occur during the observation period. A model used to study a failing system is defined default model. In particular, we present a general recursive model constructed by the means of inter- acting urns. After introducing the theoretical model and its properties we show a first application to credit risk modeling, showing how to assess the idiosyncratic probability of default of an obligor and the joint probability of failure of a set of obligors in a portfolio of risks, that are divided into reliability classes

Taking Blockchain Seriously

In the present techno-political moment it is clear that ignoring or dismissing the hype surrounding blockchain is unwise, and certainly for regulatory authorities and governments who must keep a grip on the technology and those promoting it, in order to ensure democratic accountability and regulatory legitimacy within the blockchain ecosystem and beyond. Blockchain is telling (and showing) us something very important about the evolution of capital and neoliberal economic reason, and the likely impact in the near future on forms and patterns of work, social organization, and, crucially, on communities and individuals who lack influence over the technologies and data that increasingly shape and control their lives. In this short essay I introduce some of the problems in the regulation of blockchain and offer counter-narratives aimed at cutting through the hype fuelling the ascendency of this most contemporary of technologies

POTs: Protective Optimization Technologies

Algorithmic fairness aims to address the economic, moral, social, and political impact that digital systems have on populations through solutions that can be applied by service providers. Fairness frameworks do so, in part, by mapping these problems to a narrow definition and assuming the service providers can be trusted to deploy countermeasures. Not surprisingly, these decisions limit fairness frameworks' ability to capture a variety of harms caused by systems. We characterize fairness limitations using concepts from requirements engineering and from social sciences. We show that the focus on algorithms' inputs and outputs misses harms that arise from systems interacting with the world; that the focus on bias and discrimination omits broader harms on populations and their environments; and that relying on service providers excludes scenarios where they are not cooperative or intentionally adversarial. We propose Protective Optimization Technologies (POTs). POTs provide means for affected parties to address the negative impacts of systems in the environment, expanding avenues for political contestation. POTs intervene from outside the system, do not require service providers to cooperate, and can serve to correct, shift, or expose harms that systems impose on populations and their environments. We illustrate the potential and limitations of POTs in two case studies: countering road congestion caused by traffic-beating applications, and recalibrating credit scoring for loan applicants.Comment: Appears in Conference on Fairness, Accountability, and Transparency (FAT* 2020). Bogdan Kulynych and Rebekah Overdorf contributed equally to this work. Version v1/v2 by Seda G\"urses, Rebekah Overdorf, and Ero Balsa was presented at HotPETS 2018 and at PiMLAI 201

Estrogen pathway polymorphisms in relation to primary open angle glaucoma: An analysis accounting for gender from the United States

Purpose Circulating estrogen levels are relevant in glaucoma phenotypic traits. We assessed the association between an estrogen metabolism single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) panel in relation to primary open angle glaucoma (POAG), accounting for gender. Methods: We included 3,108 POAG cases and 3,430 controls of both genders from the Glaucoma Genes and Environment (GLAUGEN) study and the National Eye Institute Glaucoma Human Genetics Collaboration (NEIGHBOR) consortium genotyped on the Illumina 660W-Quad platform. We assessed the relation between the SNP panels representative of estrogen metabolism and POAG using pathway- and gene-based approaches with the Pathway Analysis by Randomization Incorporating Structure (PARIS) software. PARIS executes a permutation algorithm to assess statistical significance relative to the pathways and genes of comparable genetic architecture. These analyses were performed using the meta-analyzed results from the GLAUGEN and NEIGHBOR data sets. We evaluated POAG overall as well as two subtypes of POAG defined as intraocular pressure (IOP) ≥22 mmHg (high-pressure glaucoma [HPG]) or IOP 0.99). Among women, gene-based analyses revealed that the catechol-O-methyltransferase gene showed strong associations with HTG (permuted gene p≤0.001) and NPG (permuted gene p=0.01). Conclusions: The estrogen SNP pathway was associated with POAG among women

A Common Variant in MIR182 Is Associated With Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma in the NEIGHBORHOOD Consortium

PURPOSE. Noncoding microRNAs (miRNAs) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of glaucoma. We aimed to identify common variants in miRNA coding genes (MIR) associated with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). METHODS. Using the NEIGHBORHOOD data set (3853 cases/33,480 controls with European ancestry), we first assessed the relation between 85 variants in 76 MIR genes and overall POAG. Subtype-specific analyses were performed in high-tension glaucoma (HTG) and normal-tension glaucoma subsets. Second, we examined the expression of miR-182, which was associated with POAG, in postmortem human ocular tissues (ciliary body, cornea, retina, and trabecular meshwork [TM]), using miRNA sequencing (miRNA-Seq) and droplet digital PCR (ddPCR). Third, miR-182 expression was also examined in human aqueous humor (AH) by using miRNA-Seq. Fourth, exosomes secreted from primary human TM cells were examined for miR-182 expression by using miRNA-Seq. Fifth, using ddPCR we compared miR182 expression in AH between five HTG cases and five controls. RESULTS. Only rs76481776 in MIR182 gene was associated with POAG after adjustment for multiple comparisons (odds ratio [OR] ¼ 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11–1.42, P ¼ 0.0002). Subtype analysis indicated that the association was primarily in the HTG subset (OR ¼ 1.26, 95% CI: 1.08–1.47, P ¼ 0.004). The risk allele T has been associated with elevated miR-182 expression in vitro. Data from ddPCR and miRNA-Seq confirmed miR-182 expression in all examined ocular tissues and TM-derived exosomes. Interestingly, miR-182 expression in AH was 2-fold higher in HTG patients than nonglaucoma controls (P ¼ 0.03) without controlling for medication treatment. CONCLUSIONS. Our integrative study is the first to associate rs76481776 with POAG via elevated miR-182 expression

A Common Variant in MIR182 Is Associated With Primary Open-Angle Glaucoma in the NEIGHBORHOOD Consortium

PURPOSE. Noncoding microRNAs (miRNAs) have been implicated in the pathogenesis of glaucoma. We aimed to identify common variants in miRNA coding genes (MIR) associated with primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). METHODS. Using the NEIGHBORHOOD data set (3853 cases/33,480 controls with European ancestry), we first assessed the relation between 85 variants in 76 MIR genes and overall POAG. Subtype-specific analyses were performed in high-tension glaucoma (HTG) and normal-tension glaucoma subsets. Second, we examined the expression of miR-182, which was associated with POAG, in postmortem human ocular tissues (ciliary body, cornea, retina, and trabecular meshwork [TM]), using miRNA sequencing (miRNA-Seq) and droplet digital PCR (ddPCR). Third, miR-182 expression was also examined in human aqueous humor (AH) by using miRNA-Seq. Fourth, exosomes secreted from primary human TM cells were examined for miR-182 expression by using miRNA-Seq. Fifth, using ddPCR we compared miR182 expression in AH between five HTG cases and five controls. RESULTS. Only rs76481776 in MIR182 gene was associated with POAG after adjustment for multiple comparisons (odds ratio [OR] ¼ 1.23, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11–1.42, P ¼ 0.0002). Subtype analysis indicated that the association was primarily in the HTG subset (OR ¼ 1.26, 95% CI: 1.08–1.47, P ¼ 0.004). The risk allele T has been associated with elevated miR-182 expression in vitro. Data from ddPCR and miRNA-Seq confirmed miR-182 expression in all examined ocular tissues and TM-derived exosomes. Interestingly, miR-182 expression in AH was 2-fold higher in HTG patients than nonglaucoma controls (P ¼ 0.03) without controlling for medication treatment. CONCLUSIONS. Our integrative study is the first to associate rs76481776 with POAG via elevated miR-182 expression

Multicentre multi-device hybrid imaging study of coronary artery disease: results from the EValuation of INtegrated Cardiac Imaging for the Detection and Characterization of Ischaemic Heart Disease (EVINCI) hybrid imaging population

AIMS: Hybrid imaging provides a non-invasive assessment of coronary anatomy and myocardial perfusion. We sought to evaluate the added clinical value of hybrid imaging in a multi-centre multi-vendor setting. METHODS AND RESULTS: Fourteen centres enrolled 252 patients with stable angina and intermediate (20-90%) pre-test likelihood of coronary artery disease (CAD) who underwent myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS), CT coronary angiography (CTCA), and quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) with fractional flow reserve (FFR). Hybrid MPS/CTCA images were obtained by 3D image fusion. Blinded core-lab analyses were performed for CTCA, MPS, QCA and hybrid datasets. Hemodynamically significant CAD was ruled-in non-invasively in the presence of a matched finding (myocardial perfusion defect co-localized with stenosed coronary artery) and ruled-out with normal findings (both CTCA and MPS normal). Overall prevalence of significant CAD on QCA (>70% stenosis or 30-70% with FFR 640.80) was 37%. Of 1004 pathological myocardial segments on MPS, 246 (25%) were reclassified from their standard coronary distribution to another territory by hybrid imaging. In this respect, in 45/252 (18%) patients, hybrid imaging reassigned an entire perfusion defect to another coronary territory, changing the final diagnosis in 42% of the cases. Hybrid imaging allowed non-invasive CAD rule-out in 41%, and rule-in in 24% of patients, with a negative and positive predictive value of 88% and 87%, respectively. CONCLUSION: In patients at intermediate risk of CAD, hybrid imaging allows non-invasive co-localization of myocardial perfusion defects and subtending coronary arteries, impacting clinical decision-making in almost one every five subjects

SLC35A2â CDG: Functional characterization, expanded molecular, clinical, and biochemical phenotypes of 30 unreported Individuals

Pathogenic de novo variants in the Xâ linked gene SLC35A2 encoding the major Golgiâ localized UDPâ galactose transporter required for proper protein and lipid glycosylation cause a rare type of congenital disorder of glycosylation known as SLC35A2â congenital disorders of glycosylation (CDG; formerly CDGâ IIm). To date, 29 unique de novo variants from 32 unrelated individuals have been described in the literature. The majority of affected individuals are primarily characterized by varying degrees of neurological impairments with or without skeletal abnormalities. Surprisingly, most affected individuals do not show abnormalities in serum transferrin Nâ glycosylation, a common biomarker for most types of CDG. Here we present data characterizing 30 individuals and add 26 new variants, the single largest study involving SLC35A2â CDG. The great majority of these individuals had normal transferrin glycosylation. In addition, expanding the molecular and clinical spectrum of this rare disorder, we developed a robust and reliable biochemical assay to assess SLC35A2â dependent UDPâ galactose transport activity in primary fibroblasts. Finally, we show that transport activity is directly correlated to the ratio of wildâ type to mutant alleles in fibroblasts from affected individuals.Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/150498/1/humu23731_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/150498/2/humu23731-sup-0001-Supp_Mat__2019.2.10_.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/150498/3/humu23731.pd

Systems genetics identifies a role for Cacna2d1 regulation in elevated intraocular pressure and glaucoma susceptibility

Glaucoma is a multi-factorial blinding disease in which genetic factors play an important role. Elevated intraocular pressure is a highly heritable risk factor for primary open angle glaucoma and currently the only target for glaucoma therapy. Our study helps to better understand underlying genetic and molecular mechanisms that regulate intraocular pressure, and identifies a new candidate gene, Cacna2d1, that modulates intraocular pressure and a promising therapeutic, pregabalin, which binds to CACNA2D1 protein and lowers intraocular pressure significantly. Because our study utilizes a genetically diverse population of mice with kno