Improving the Management of the Crown’s Exposure to Risk

The paper discusses the management of the New Zealand Crown’s exposure to financial risk. It argues that the Crown’s aggregate exposure to risk can be effectively managed only centrally, and that, despite the difficulties of measuring risk and specifying an appropriate objective, the government should do more to measure, monitor, and control the Crown’s aggregate exposure to risk. The paper goes on to present a new model for quantifying the Crown’s exposure to risk, which integrates analysis of the government’s accounting assets and liabilities with analysis of projected tax revenue and government spending. Among other results, the model suggests that the annual volatility (standard deviation) of the Crown’s comprehensive balance sheet is at present approximately $30 billion.Risk management; Crown balance sheet

Growth and population dynamics of crayfish Paranephrops planifrons in streams within native forest and pastoral land uses

Population dynamics of crayfish (Paranephrops planifrons White) in streams draining native forest and pastoral catchments, Waikato, New Zealand, were investigated from September 1996 to July 1998. Crayfish densities were generally greater in native forest streams because of high recruitment over summer, but varied greatly between streams in both land uses. Peak densities in summer were 9 crayfish m-2 in native forest and 6 crayfish m-2 in pasture streams, but peak biomass in summer was much greater in pasture streams. Mark-recapture data showed that crayfish, particularly juveniles, in pasture streams grew faster than in native forest streams, through both greater moult frequency and larger moult increments. Females reached reproductive size at c. 20 mm orbit-carapace length (OCL) after their first year in pasture streams, but after 2 years in native forest streams. Annual degree days >10°C appeared to explain the differences in the timing of life cycles. Estimates of annual crayfish production (range = 0.8-3.4 g dry weight m-2 year-1) were similar in both land uses, and P/B ratios were between 0.95 and 1.2. Despite deforestation and conversion to pasture, crayfish in these Waikato hill-country streams have maintained similar levels of annual production to those in native forest streams, although juvenile growth rates have increased and longevity has decreased

Caution: Slippery When Wet

Messiah College faculty scholarship papers : submitted by faculty in partial fulfillment of the requirements for promotion to the rank of professo

The Divine Pedagogy: Theological Explorations of Intelligent Extraterrestrial Life

Abstract Speculation regarding the plurality of worlds and its closely related subject of the existence of intelligent extraterrestrials has remained an important question for Christian theology from antiquity until the modern age. Advancements in space science of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries have revealed a vast universe containing trillions of galaxies, as well as new discoveries of exoplanets, which has provided an unprecedented greater context and perspective in consideration of the place of humanity, possible intelligent extraterrestrials, and the role of divinity in relation to creatures. This has led to increased importance to the question regarding the relation of extraterrestrials to the Christian doctrines of the Incarnation and Redemption, which for centuries has evaded theological resolution. Historically, a handful of theologians have given limited attention to the question of the redemption of possible extraterrestrials, and since early Christianity have proposed several possible solutions, which are categorized according to four types: an exclusive view, asserting a single divine incarnation and salvation provided solely for humans on Earth, without access to potential extraterrestrials; an inclusive view, which includes extraterrestrials within the redemptive sacrifice of Christ on Earth; a multiple view, which posits multiple incarnations of the Logos in extraterrestrial civilizations for their redemption; and a varied view, which argues for the total freedom of divine plans in the salvation of intelligent extraterrestrials. This thesis will argue for the varied view in consideration of intelligent extraterrestrials, which allows for the ‘omni-properties’ of divinity in the creation and redemption of intelligent creatures according to divine prerogative. Examination of the history of developments in scientific and theological thought on extraterrestrials, from antiquity to the twenty-first century will demonstrate a consistent pattern of theological formulations of extraterrestrials and their relation to Christian Christology and Soteriology. In the discussion of this subject, an extraterrestrial ‘anthropology’, psychology, morphological possibilities, sociological compositions, extraterrestrial religions, implications of contact, and a ‘divine pedagogy’ of potential modalities of extra-mundus supernatural presence and action will be considered

Description and performance of a digital mobile satellite terminal

A major goal of the Mobile Satellite Experiment (MSAT-X) program at the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) is the development of an advanced digital terminal for use in land mobile satellite communication. The terminal has been developed to minimize the risk of applying advanced technologies to future commercial mobile satellite systems (MSS). Testing with existing L band satellites was performed in fixed, land mobile and aeronautical mobile environments. JPL's development and tests of its mobile terminal have demonstrated the viability of narrowband digital voice communications in a land mobile environment through geostationary satellites. This paper provides a consolidated description of the terminal architecture and the performance of its individual elements

Challenges and Choices: Modelling New Zealand’s Long-term Fiscal Position

This working paper provides further detail on the modelling behind Challenges and Choices – New Zealand’s Long-Term Fiscal Statement, published on 29 October 2009. Building on the first Statement of 2006, we construct two main fiscal scenarios over a 40- year horizon. The historic trends scenario allows historic and current spending and revenue settings to interact with changing demography. The sustainable debt scenario applies a fiscal constraint on non-benefit spending so that Crown net debt follows the Government’s medium-term fiscal targets. The modelling innovations introduced this time do not alter the basic structure and principles of the Long-term Fiscal Model, but instead provide insights into government spending: public sector productivity growth and the growth of the basket of services each person receives. These innovations enable us to illustrate the effects of tradeoffs between broad spending categories in a constrained fiscal environment. In the 2009 Statement, these policy changes are combined into three possible scenarios for obtaining a sustainable fiscal position. The paper also illustrates the sensitivity of the fiscal position to small changes in the demographic, macroeconomic and fiscal modelling assumptions.Population, projections, social expenditure, fiscal costs, New Zealand

Making sense of change: An urban ethnography of middle-class narratives of uncertainty in Almaty, Kazakhstan

This urban ethnography focuses on the new generation of young urban middle-class people in Almaty, Kazakhstan, who have grown up after the Soviet Union. It examines how they respond to the dramatic social, economic, political, and environmental changes their country has undergone since 1991. A close analysis of their distinct way of life, in comparison to both their parents’ generation and the wider public, provides an insight into the social strategies they employ to make sense of change in the context of their everyday lives. This research, based on fieldwork carried out between 2014 and 2017, is an original study, addressing the question: How do Almaty’s urban middle- class population make sense of change? I argue that young urban middle-class people in Almaty, Kazakhstan perform a public narrative of their lives, providing their everyday existence with a sense of structure, stability, and coherence in the face of past societal change and the risk of further change in the future. However, ruptures in everyday life—such as a flood, earthquake, currency devaluation, or even a marriage—expose vulnerabilities of this young generation that are only discussed in private contexts. To overcome their growing uncertainty about the reliability of public narratives, my informants increasingly rely on their trusted social relations of kinship and friendship networks. When these channels are exhausted, my informants turn to alternative discursive techniques, such as rumour, to discuss private concerns in public contexts without undermining their own public narratives

Evaluating techniques for sampling stream crayfish (paranephrops planifrons)

We evaluated several capture and analysis techniques for estimating abundance and size structure of freshwater crayfish (Paranephrops planifrons) (koura) from a forested North Island, New Zealand stream to provide a methodological basis for future population studies. Direct observation at night and collecting with baited traps were not considered useful. A quadrat sampler was highly biased toward collecting small individuals. Handnetting at night and estimating abundances using the depletion method were not as efficient as handnetting on different dates and analysing by a mark-recapture technique. Electrofishing was effective in collecting koura from different habitats and resulted in the highest abundance estimates, and mark-recapture estimates appeared to be more precise than depletion estimates, especially if multiple recaptures were made. Handnetting captured more large crayfish relative to electrofishing or the quadrat sampler