Defining the hundred year flood: a Bayesian approach for using historic data to reduce uncertainty in flood frequency estimates

This paper describes a Bayesian statistical model for estimating flood frequency by combining uncertain annual maximum (AMAX) data from a river gauge with estimates of flood peak discharge from various historic sources that predate the period of instrument records. Such historic flood records promise to expand the time series data needed for reducing the uncertainty in return period estimates for extreme events, but the heterogeneity and uncertainty of historic records make them difficult to use alongside Flood Estimation Handbook and other standard methods for generating flood frequency curves from gauge data. Using the flow of the River Eden in Carlisle, Cumbria, UK as a case study, this paper develops a Bayesian model for combining historic flood estimates since 1800 with gauge data since 1967 to estimate the probability of low frequency flood events for the area taking account of uncertainty in the discharge estimates. Results show a reduction in 95% confidence intervals of roughly 50% for annual exceedance probabilities of less than 0.0133 (return periods over 75 years) compared to standard flood frequency estimation methods using solely systematic data. Sensitivity analysis shows the model is sensitive to 2 model parameters both of which are concerned with the historic (pre-systematic) period of the time series. This highlights the importance of adequate consideration of historic channel and floodplain changes or possible bias in estimates of historic flood discharges. The next steps required to roll out this Bayesian approach for operational flood frequency estimation at other sites is also discussed

Registration of cancer in girls remains lower than expected in countries with low/middle incomes and low female education rates.

BACKGROUND: A decade ago it was reported that childhood cancer incidence was higher in boys than girls in many countries, particularly those with low gross domestic product (GDP) and high infant mortality rate. Research suggests that socio-economic and cultural factors are likely to be responsible. This study aimed to investigate the association between cancer registration rate sex ratios and economic, social and healthcare-related factors using recent data (1998-2002). METHODS: For 62 countries, childhood (0-15 years) cancer registration rate sex ratios were calculated from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Vol IX, and economic, social and healthcare indicator data were collated. RESULTS: Increased age standardised cancer registration rate sex ratio (M:F) was significantly associated with decreasing life expectancy (P=0.05), physician density (P=0.05), per capita health expenditure (P=0.05), GDP (P=0.01), education sex ratios (primary school enrolment sex ratio (P<0.01); secondary school enrolment sex ratio (P<0.01); adult literacy sex ratio (P<0.01)) and increasing proportion living on less than Int$1 per day (P=0.03). CONCLUSION: The previously described cancer registration sex disparity remains, particularly, in countries with poor health system indicators and low female education rates. We suggest that girls with cancer continue to go undiagnosed and that incidence data, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, should continue to be interpreted with caution

Chromite oxidation by manganese oxides in subseafloor basalts and the presence of putative fossilized microorganisms

Chromite is a mineral with low solubility and is thus resistant to dissolution. The exception is when manganese oxides are available, since they are the only known naturally occurring oxidants for chromite. In the presence of Mn(IV) oxides, Cr(III) will oxidise to Cr(VI), which is more soluble than Cr(III), and thus easier to be removed. Here we report of chromite phenocrysts that are replaced by rhodochrosite (Mn(II) carbonate) in subseafloor basalts from the Koko Seamount, Pacific Ocean, that were drilled and collected during the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 197. The mineral succession chromite-rhodochrosite-saponite in the phenocrysts is interpreted as the result of chromite oxidation by manganese oxides. Putative fossilized microorganisms are abundant in the rhodochrosite and we suggest that the oxidation of chromite has been mediated by microbial activity. It has previously been shown in soils and in laboratory experiments that chromium oxidation is indirectly mediated by microbial formation of manganese oxides. Here we suggest a similar process in subseafloor basalts

Incidence and survival of childhood bone cancer in northern England and the West Midlands, 1981–2002

There is a paucity of population-based studies examining incidence and survival trends in childhood bone tumours. We used high quality data from four population-based registries in England. Incidence patterns and trends were described using Poisson regression. Survival trends were analysed using Cox regression. There were 374 cases of childhood (ages 0–14 years) bone tumours (206 osteosarcomas, 144 Ewing sarcomas, 16 chondrosarcomas, 8 other bone tumours) registered in the period 1981–2002. Overall incidence (per million person years) rates were 2.63 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.27–2.99) for osteosarcoma, 1.90 (1.58–2.21) for Ewing sarcoma and 0.21 (0.11–0.31) for chondrosarcoma. Incidence of Ewing sarcoma declined at an average rate of 3.1% (95% CI 0.6–5.6) per annum (P=0.04), which may be due to tumour reclassification, but there was no change in osteosarcoma incidence. Survival showed marked improvement over the 20 years (1981–2000) for Ewing sarcoma (hazard ratio (HR) per annum=0.95 95% CI 0.91–0.99; P=0.02). However, no improvement was seen for osteosarcoma patients (HR per annum=1.02 95% CI 0.98–1.05; P=0.35) over this time period. Reasons for failure to improve survival including potential delays in diagnosis, accrual to trials, adherence to therapy and lack of improvement in treatment strategies all need to be considered

Sexual uses of alcohol and drugs and the associated health risks: A cross sectional study of young people in nine European cities

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Young people in European countries are experiencing high levels of alcohol and drug use and escalating levels of sexually transmitted infections. Individually these represent major public health priorities. Understanding of the association between sex and substance use, and specifically the strategic roles for which young people utilise substances to facilitate sexual activity, remains limited.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Respondent driven sampling methodology was used in nine European cities to survey 1,341 16–35 year olds representing youth and younger adults who routinely engage in nightlife. Participants self-completed questionnaires, designed to gather demographic, social, and behavioural data on historic and current substance use and sexual behaviour.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Respondents reported strategic use of specific substances for different sexual purposes. Substances differed significantly in the purposes for which each was deployed (e.g. 28.6% of alcohol users use it to facilitate sexual encounters; 26.2% of cocaine users use it to prolong sex) with user demographics also relating to levels of sexual use (e.g. higher levels of: ecstasy use by males to prolong sex; cocaine use by single individuals to enhance sensation and arousal). Associations between substance use and sex started at a young age, with alcohol, cannabis, cocaine or ecstasy use before age 16 all being associated with having had sex before the age of 16 (odds ratios, 3.47, 4.19, 5.73, 9.35 respectively). However, sexes differed and substance use under 16 years was associated with a proportionately greater increase in early sex amongst girls. Respondents' current drug use was associated with having multiple sexual partners. Thus, for instance, regular cocaine users (c.f. never users) were over five times more likely to have had five or more sexual partners in the last 12 months or have paid for sex.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>An epidemic of recreational drug use and binge drinking exposes millions of young Europeans to routine consumption of substances which alter their sexual decisions and increase their chances of unsafe and regretted sex. For many, substance use has become an integral part of their strategic approach to sex, locking them into continued use. Tackling substances with both physiological and psychological links to sex requires approaching substance use and sexual behaviour in the same way that individuals experience them; as part of the same social process.</p

Polymorphisms in the Tlr4 and Tlr5 Gene Are Significantly Associated with Inflammatory Bowel Disease in German Shepherd Dogs

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is considered to be the most common cause of vomiting and diarrhoea in dogs, and the German shepherd dog (GSD) is particularly susceptible. The exact aetiology of IBD is unknown, however associations have been identified between specific single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in Toll-like receptors (TLRs) and human IBD. However, to date, no genetic studies have been undertaken in canine IBD. The aim of this study was to investigate whether polymorphisms in canine TLR 2, 4 and 5 genes are associated with IBD in GSDs. Mutational analysis of TLR2, TLR4 and TLR5 was performed in 10 unrelated GSDs with IBD. Four non-synonymous SNPs (T23C, G1039A, A1571T and G1807A) were identified in the TLR4 gene, and three non-synonymous SNPs (G22A, C100T and T1844C) were identified in the TLR5 gene. The non-synonymous SNPs identified in TLR4 and TLR5 were evaluated further in a case-control study using a SNaPSHOT multiplex reaction. Sequencing information from 55 unrelated GSDs with IBD were compared to a control group consisting of 61 unrelated GSDs. The G22A SNP in TLR5 was significantly associated with IBD in GSDs, whereas the remaining two SNPs were found to be significantly protective for IBD. Furthermore, the two SNPs in TLR4 (A1571T and G1807A) were in complete linkage disequilibrium, and were also significantly associated with IBD. The TLR5 risk haplotype (ACC) without the two associated TLR4 SNP alleles was significantly associated with IBD, however the presence of the two TLR4 SNP risk alleles without the TLR5 risk haplotype was not statistically associated with IBD. Our study suggests that the three TLR5 SNPs and two TLR4 SNPs; A1571T and G1807A could play a role in the pathogenesis of IBD in GSDs. Further studies are required to confirm the functional importance of these polymorphisms in the pathogenesis of this disease

Deep sequencing of subseafloor eukaryotic rRNA reveals active fungi across marine subsurface provinces

© The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in PLoS ONE 8 (2013): e56335, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0056335.The deep marine subsurface is a vast habitat for microbial life where cells may live on geologic timescales. Because DNA in sediments may be preserved on long timescales, ribosomal RNA (rRNA) is suggested to be a proxy for the active fraction of a microbial community in the subsurface. During an investigation of eukaryotic 18S rRNA by amplicon pyrosequencing, unique profiles of Fungi were found across a range of marine subsurface provinces including ridge flanks, continental margins, and abyssal plains. Subseafloor fungal populations exhibit statistically significant correlations with total organic carbon (TOC), nitrate, sulfide, and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). These correlations are supported by terminal restriction length polymorphism (TRFLP) analyses of fungal rRNA. Geochemical correlations with fungal pyrosequencing and TRFLP data from this geographically broad sample set suggests environmental selection of active Fungi in the marine subsurface. Within the same dataset, ancient rRNA signatures were recovered from plants and diatoms in marine sediments ranging from 0.03 to 2.7 million years old, suggesting that rRNA from some eukaryotic taxa may be much more stable than previously considered in the marine subsurface.This work was performed with funding from the Center for Dark Energy Biosphere Investigations (C-DEBI) to William Orsi (OCE-0939564) and The Ocean Life Institute (WHOI) to Virginia Edgcomb (OLI-27071359)