81 research outputs found
Large Deflection of a Heated Elliptical Plate Under Stationary Temperature
The large deflection of a heated elliptic plate with clamped edges using Berger's method has been investigated under stationary temperature distribution. The deflection is obtained in terms of Mathieu function Of the first kind of order 2m
Large Amplitude Free Vibrations of Axisymmetric Orthotropic Circular Plate
Large amplitude free vibrations of an axisymmetric circular plate of orthotropic material have been investigated. Generalised field equations in the dynamic case for such a plate have been derived (in the von Karman sense) in terms of displacement components. Time-periods for linear and nonlinear vibrations have been compared and corresponding results for isotropy have been deduced. Some numerical results for the ratio of time-periods vs. non-dimensional amplitudes have been presented in tables
Modelling the transmission dynamics of H9N2 avian influenza viruses in a live bird market
H9N2 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are a major concern for the poultry sector and human health in countries where this subtype is endemic. By fitting a model simulating H9N2 AIV transmission to data from a field experiment, we characterise the epidemiology of the virus in a live bird market in Bangladesh. Many supplied birds arrive already exposed to H9N2 AIVs, resulting in many broiler chickens entering the market as infected, and many indigenous backyard chickens entering with pre-existing immunity. Most susceptible chickens become infected within one day spent at the market, owing to high levels of viral transmission within market and short latent periods, as brief as 5.3 hours. Although H9N2 AIV transmission can be substantially reduced under moderate levels of cleaning and disinfection, effective risk mitigation also requires a range of additional interventions targeting markets and other nodes along the poultry production and distribution network
Risk for Infection with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus (H5N1) in Backyard Chickens, Bangladesh
Risk factors were feeding slaughter remnants of purchased chickens, having a body of water nearby, and contact with pigeons
Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Chickens, Bangladesh
To determine the epidemiology of outbreaks of avian influenza A virus (subtypes H5N1, H9N2) in chickens in Bangladesh, we conducted surveys and examined virus isolates. The outbreak began in backyard chickens. Probable sources of infection included egg trays and vehicles from local live bird markets and larger live bird markets
Spatio-Temporal Magnitude and Direction of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) Outbreaks in Bangladesh
BACKGROUND: The number of outbreaks of HPAI-H5N1 reported by Bangladesh from 2007 through 2011 placed the country among the highest reported numbers worldwide. However, so far, the understanding of the epidemic progression, direction, intensity, persistence and risk variation of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks over space and time in Bangladesh remains limited. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To determine the magnitude and spatial pattern of the highly pathogenic avian influenza A subtype H5N1 virus outbreaks over space and time in poultry from 2007 to 2009 in Bangladesh, we applied descriptive and analytical spatial statistics. Temporal distribution of the outbreaks revealed three independent waves of outbreaks that were clustered during winter and spring. The descriptive analyses revealed that the magnitude of the second wave was the highest as compared to the first and third waves. Exploratory mapping of the infected flocks revealed that the highest intensity and magnitude of the outbreaks was systematic and persistent in an oblique line that connects south-east to north-west through the central part of the country. The line follows the Brahmaputra-Meghna river system, the junction between Central Asian and East Asian flyways, and the major poultry trading route in Bangladesh. Moreover, several important migratory bird areas were identified along the line. Geostatistical analysis revealed significant latitudinal directions of outbreak progressions that have similarity to the detected line of intensity and magnitude. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The line of magnitude and direction indicate the necessity of mobilizing maximum resources on this line to strengthen the existing surveillance
Ecological Determinants of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) Outbreaks in Bangladesh
BACKGROUND: The agro-ecology and poultry husbandry of the south Asian and south-east Asian countries share common features, however, with noticeable differences. Hence, the ecological determinants associated with risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI-H5N1) outbreaks are expected to differ between Bangladesh and e.g., Thailand and Vietnam. The primary aim of the current study was to establish ecological determinants associated with the risk of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks at subdistrict level in Bangladesh. The secondary aim was to explore the performance of two different statistical modeling approaches for unmeasured spatially correlated variation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An ecological study at subdistrict level in Bangladesh was performed with 138 subdistricts with HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks during 2007-2008, and 326 subdistricts with no outbreaks. The association between ecological determinants and HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks was examined using a generalized linear mixed model. Spatial clustering of the ecological data was modeled using 1) an intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) model at subdistrict level considering their first order neighbors, and 2) a multilevel (ML) model with subdistricts nested within districts. Ecological determinants significantly associated with risk of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks at subdistrict level were migratory birds' staging areas, river network, household density, literacy rate, poultry density, live bird markets, and highway network. Predictive risk maps were derived based on the resulting models. The resulting models indicate that the ML model absorbed some of the covariate effect of the ICAR model because of the neighbor structure implied in the two different models. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The study identified a new set of ecological determinants related to river networks, migratory birds' staging areas and literacy rate in addition to already known risk factors, and clarified that the generalized concept of free grazing duck and duck-rice cultivation interacted ecology are not significant determinants for Bangladesh. These findings will refine current understanding of the HPAI-H5N1 epidemiology in Bangladesh
Prevalence of avian influenza A(H5) and A(H9) in live bird markets in Bangladesh
We conducted a cross-sectional study in live bird markets (LBMs) in Dhaka and Chittagong, Bangladesh, to estimate the prevalence of avian influenza A(H5) and A(H9) viruses in different types of poultry and environmental areas by using Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression models. We detected these viruses in nearly all LBMs. Prevalence of A(H5) virus was higher in waterfowl than in chickens, whereas prevalence of A(H9) virus was higher in chickens than in waterfowl and, among chicken types, in industrial broilers than in cross-breeds and indigenous breeds. LBMs with >1 wholesaler were more frequently contaminated by A(H5) virus than retail-only LBMs. Prevalence of A(H9) virus in poultry and level of environmental contamination were also higher in LBMs with >1 wholesaler. We found a high level of circulation of both avian influenza viruses in surveyed LBMs. Prevalence was influenced by type of poultry, environmental site, and trading patterns because our study included previously collected data
A qualitative stakeholder analysis of avian influenza policy in Bangladesh
Avian influenza is a major animal and public health concern in Bangladesh. A decade after development and implementation of the first national avian influenza and human pandemic influenza preparedness and response plan in Bangladesh, a two-stage qualitative stakeholder analysis was performed in relation to the policy development process and the actual policy. This study specifically aimed to identify the future policy options to prevent and control avian influenza and other poultry-related zoonotic diseases in Bangladesh. It was recommended that the policy should be based on the One Health concept, be evidence-based, sustainable, reviewed and updated as necessary. The future policy environment that is suitable for developing and implementing these policies should take into account the following points: the need to formally engage multiple sectors, the need for clear and acceptable leadership, roles and responsibilities, and the need for a common pool of resources and provision for transferring resources. Most of these recommendations are directed towards the Government of Bangladesh. However, other sectors, including research and poultry production stakeholders, also have a major role to play to inform policy-making and actively participate in the multi-sectoral approach
Prevalence and Characterization of Motile Salmonella in Commercial Layer Poultry Farms in Bangladesh
Salmonella is a globally widespread food-borne pathogen having major impact on public health. All motile serovars of Salmonella enterica of poultry origin are zoonotic, and contaminated meat and raw eggs are an important source to human infections. Information on the prevalence of Salmonella at farm/holding level, and the zoonotic serovars circulating in layer poultry in the South and South-East Asian countries including Bangladesh, where small-scale commercial farms are predominant, is limited. To investigate the prevalence of Salmonella at layer farm level, and to identify the prevalent serovars we conducted a cross-sectional survey by randomly selecting 500 commercial layer poultry farms in Bangladesh. Faecal samples from the selected farms were collected following standard procedure, and examined for the presence of Salmonella using conventional bacteriological procedures. Thirty isolates were randomly selected, from the ninety obtained from the survey, for serotyping and characterized further by plasmid profiling and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE). Results of the survey showed that the prevalence of motile Salmonella at layer farm level was 18% (95% confidence interval 15–21%), and Salmonella Kentucky was identified to be the only serovar circulating in the study population. Plasmid analysis of the S. Kentucky and non-serotyped isolates revealed two distinct profiles with a variation of two different sizes (2.7 and 4.8 kb). PFGE of the 30 S. Kentucky and 30 non-serotyped isolates showed that all of them were clonally related because only one genotype and three subtypes were determined based on the variation in two or three bands. This is also the first report on the presence of any specific serovar of Salmonella enterica in poultry in Bangladesh
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