Independent and interacting wet-dry extremes in Great Britain within a multivariate dependence model [Abstract]

Independent and interacting wet-dry extremes in Great Britain within a multivariate dependence model [Abstract

Extreme multi-basin flooding linked with extra-tropical cyclones [Poster]

Fluvial floods are typically investigated as ‘events’ at the single basin-scale, hence flood management authorities may underestimate the threat of flooding across multiple basins driven by large-scale and nearly concurrent atmospheric event(s). We pilot a national-scale statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme multi-basin flooding (MBF) episodes, using peak river flow data for 260 basins in Great Britain (1975-2014), a sentinel region for storms impacting northwest and central Europe. During the most widespread MBF episode, 108 basins (~46% of the study area) recorded Annual Maximum (AMAX) discharge within a 16-day window. Such episodes are associated with persistent cyclonic and westerly atmospheric circulations, atmospheric rivers, and precipitation falling onto previously saturated ground, leading to hydrological response times <40h and documented flood impacts. Furthermore, peak flows tend to occur after 0-13 days of very severe gales causing combined and spatially-distributed, yet differentially time-lagged, wind and flood damages. These findings have implications for emergency responders, insurers and contingency planners worldwide

Twenty-first century CMIP5 projections of atmospheric circulation over British Isles under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios [Abstract]

Twenty-first century CMIP5 projections of atmospheric circulation over British Isles under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios [Abstract

Evaluating 21st century projections of anticyclonic weather frequency and persistence over the British Isles

Evaluating 21st century projections of anticyclonic weather frequency and persistence over the British Isle

The “dirty dozen” of freshwater science: Detecting then reconciling hydrological data biases and errors

Sound water policy and management rests on sound hydrometeorological and ecological data. Conversely, unrepresentative, poorly collected or erroneously archived data introduces uncertainty regarding the magnitude, rate and direction of environmental change, in addition to undermining confidence in decision-making processes. Unfortunately, data biases and errors can enter the information flow at various stages, starting with site selection, instrumentation, sampling/ measurement procedures, post-processing and ending with archiving systems. Techniques such as visual inspection of raw data, graphical representation and comparison between sites, outlier and trend detection, and referral to metadata can all help uncover spurious data. Tell-tale signs of ambiguous and/or anomalous data are highlighted using 12 carefully chosen cases drawn mainly from hydrology (‘the dirty dozen’). These include evidence of changes in site or local conditions (due to land management, river regulation or urbanisation); modifications to instrumentation or inconsistent observer behaviour; mismatched or misrepresentative sampling in space and time; treatment of missing values, post-processing and data storage errors. As well as raising awareness of pitfalls, recommendations are provided for uncovering lapses in data quality after the information has been gathered. It is noted that error detection and attribution are more problematic for very large data sets, where observation networks are automated, or when various information sources have been combined. In these cases, more holistic indicators of data integrity are needed that reflect the overall information life-cycle and application(s) of the hydrological data

The Pollino seismic sequence: shear wave splitting, fracture field and active stress [poster]

The Pollino seismic sequence: shear wave splitting, fracture field and active stress [poster

The Pollino seismic sequence: Can shear wave anisotropy monitoring help earthquakes forecast? [Poster]

The Pollino seismic sequence: Can shear wave anisotropy monitoring help earthquakes forecast? [Poster

Extreme multi-basin fluvial flows and their relationship to extra-tropical cyclones [Abstract]

Extreme multi-basin fluvial flows and their relationship to extra-tropical cyclones [Abstract

Observations relating extreme multi-basin river flows to very severe gales [Abstract]

Observations relating extreme multi-basin river flows to very severe gales [Abstract

2010-2014 Seismic activity images the activated fault system in the Pollino area, at the Appennines-Calabrian arc boundary region

2010-2014 Seismic activity images the activated fault system in the Pollino area, at the Appennines-Calabrian arc boundary regio