Independent and interacting wet-dry extremes in Great Britain within a multivariate dependence model [Abstract

Gregor C. Leckebusch (7191341)

John Hillier (1254873)

Paolo De Luca (7191575)

Robert Wilby (1255929)

English

Loughborough University Institutional Repository

Geophysical Research AbstractsVol. 20, EGU2018-286-6, 2018EGU General Assembly 2018© Author(s) 2018. CC Attribution 4.0 license.Independent and interacting wet-dry extremes in Great Britain within amultivariate dependence modelPaolo De Luca (1), John Hillier (1), Gregor Leckebusch (2), and Rob Wilby (1)(1) Geography Department, Loughborough University, UK (p.deluca@lboro.ac.uk), (2) School of Geography Earth andEnvironmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, UKExtreme wet and dry events pose a significant threat to global economy and society, however they are commonlyinvestigated as independent perils. Hence, possible (long-term) interacting processes are a priori excluded and thismay limit the understanding of physical mechanisms driving the coupled hazards. We propose a novel multi-hazard(i.e. extreme wet-dry) nationwide multivariate extreme value analysis by using Great Britain (GB) as pilot area,river flows and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series within the 1980-2014 period. The analysis isfirstly performed for wet and dry extremes independently by choosing the Thames (England), Wye (Wales) andTay (Scotland) river basins and SPI hydrometric areas (HAs) as the model’s conditional variables. Secondly, theinteractions between wet and dry extremes have been investigated by using the 3 HAs conditioned to monthlymaxima river flows. Results for extreme wet events generally show stronger dependence within nearby basins thatdecreases with distance from the conditional one. A similar and even stronger pattern is found for dry events, whereSPI dependences are mostly positive within the studied area and tend to show different climate’s characteristicsbetween the north and central/south GB. Wet-dry interactions show a generally negative dependence throughoutthe area with some positive patterns detected for SPI 12- and 24-month, again increasing with distance.

Independent and interacting wet-dry extremes in Great Britain within a multivariate dependence model [Abstract]

https://repository.lboro.ac.uk/articles/Independent_and_interacting_wet-dry_extremes_in_Great_Britain_within_a_multivariate_dependence_model_Abstract_/9486251/files/17111558.pdf

Independent and interacting wet-dry extremes in Great Britain within a multivariate dependence model [Abstract]

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Loughborough University Institutional Repository