Twenty-first century CMIP5 projections of atmospheric circulation over British Isles under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios [Abstract

Christian Franzke (7193108)

Colin Harpham (7193105)

Gregor C. Leckebusch (7191341)

John Hillier (1254873)

Paolo De Luca (7191575)

Robert Wilby (1255929)

English

Loughborough University Institutional Repository

Geophysical Research AbstractsVol. 20, EGU2018-1783-7, 2018EGU General Assembly 2018© Author(s) 2018. CC Attribution 4.0 license.Twenty-first century CMIP5 projections of atmospheric circulation overBritish Isles under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenariosPaolo De Luca (1), Colin Harpham (2), Rob Wilby (1), Gregor Leckebusch (3), Christian Franzke (4), and JohnHillier (1)(1) Geography Department, Loughborough University, UK, (2) Climatic Research Unit (CRU), School of EnvironmentalSciences, University of East Anglia, UK, (3) School of Geography Earth and Environmental Sciences, University ofBirmingham, UK, (4) Meteorological Institute and Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University ofHamburg, GermanyDaily atmospheric synoptic-scale circulation over the British Isles (BI) can be represented by Lamb Weather Types(LWTs). These 27 weather patterns are obtained from the variation of sea level surface pressure across the BIgeographical domain. The principal LWTs are: anticyclonic (A), cyclonic (C), westerly (W), northerly (N), easterly(E), southerly (S) and north-westerly (NW), with the other 20 LWTs being combinations of these. At present LWTshave not yet been considered for future projections of climate. Thus, data from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (1950-2005) and from 3 different CMIP5 models (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-LR and MIROC5), i.e. historical (1950-2005), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 (2006-2100) scenarios have been obtained and an analysis of LWTs frequency ispresented. Historical and future projections are compared and contrasted, and how future changes in atmosphericcirculation patterns may affect storm activity and hydrology and their related natural hazards (e.g. extra-tropicalcyclones, floods and droughts) is discussed.

Twenty-first century CMIP5 projections of atmospheric circulation over British Isles under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios [Abstract]

https://repository.lboro.ac.uk/articles/Twenty-first_century_CMIP5_projections_of_atmospheric_circulation_over_British_Isles_under_RCP4_5_and_RCP8_5_scenarios_Abstract_/9486113/files/17111420.pdf

Twenty-first century CMIP5 projections of atmospheric circulation over British Isles under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios [Abstract]

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