The role of DSC MR perfusion in predicting IDH mutation and 1p19q codeletion status in gliomas: meta-analysis and technical considerations

Purpose: Isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) mutation and 1p19q codeletion status are important for managing glioma patients. However, current practice dictates invasive tissue sampling for histomolecular classification. We investigated the current value of dynamic susceptibility contrast (DSC) MR perfusion imaging as a tool for the non-invasive identification of these biomarkers. Methods: A systematic search of PubMed, Medline, and Embase up to 2023 was performed, and meta-analyses were conducted. We removed studies employing machine learning models or using multiparametric imaging. We used random-effects standardized mean difference (SMD) and bivariate sensitivity-specificity meta-analyses, calculated the area under the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and performed meta-regressions using technical acquisition parameters (e.g., time to echo [TE], repetition time [TR]) as moderators to explore sources of heterogeneity. For all estimates, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) are provided. Results: Sixteen eligible manuscripts comprising 1819 patients were included in the quantitative analyses. IDH mutant (IDHm) gliomas had lower rCBV values compared to their wild-type (IDHwt) counterparts. The highest SMD was observed for rCBVmean, rCBVmax, and rCBV 75th percentile (SMD≈ − 0.8, 95% CI ≈ [− 1.2, − 0.5]). In meta-regression, shorter TEs, shorter TRs, and smaller slice thicknesses were linked to higher absolute SMDs. When discriminating IDHm from IDHwt, the highest pooled specificity was observed for rCBVmean (82% [72, 89]), and the highest pooled sensitivity (i.e., 92% [86, 93]) and AUC (i.e., 0.91) for rCBV 10th percentile. In the bivariate meta-regression, shorter TEs and smaller slice gaps were linked to higher pooled sensitivities. In IDHm, 1p19q codeletion was associated with higher rCBVmean (SMD = 0.9 [0.2, 1.5]) and rCBV 90th percentile (SMD = 0.9 [0.1, 1.7]) values. Conclusions: Identification of vascular signatures predictive of IDH and 1p19q status is a novel promising application of DSC perfusion. Standardization of acquisition protocols and post-processing of DSC perfusion maps are warranted before widespread use in clinical practice

Testing, tracing and isolation in compartmental models

Existing compartmental mathematical modelling methods for epidemics, such as SEIR models, cannot accurately represent effects of contact tracing. This makes them inappropriate for evaluating testing and contact tracing strategies to contain an outbreak. An alternative used in practice is the application of agent- or individual-based models (ABM). However ABMs are complex, less well-understood and much more computationally expensive. This paper presents a new method for accurately including the effects of Testing, contact-Tracing and Isolation (TTI) strategies in standard compartmental models. We derive our method using a careful probabilistic argument to show how contact tracing at the individual level is reflected in aggregate on the population level. We show that the resultant SEIR-TTI model accurately approximates the behaviour of a mechanistic agent-based model at far less computational cost. The computational efficiency is such that it can be easily and cheaply used for exploratory modelling to quantify the required levels of testing and tracing, alone and with other interventions, to assist adaptive planning for managing disease outbreaks

A novel approach to evaluating the UK childhood immunisation schedule: estimating the effective coverage vector across the entire vaccine programme

BACKGROUND: The availability of new vaccines can prompt policy makers to consider changes to the routine childhood immunisation programme in the UK. Alterations to one aspect of the schedule may have implications for other areas of the programme (e.g. adding more injections could reduce uptake of vaccines featuring later in the schedule). Colleagues at the Department of Health (DH) in the UK therefore wanted to know whether assessing the impact across the entire programme of a proposed change to the UK schedule could lead to different decisions than those made on the current case-by-case basis. This work is a first step towards addressing this question. METHODS: A novel framework for estimating the effective coverage against all of the diseases within a vaccination programme was developed. The framework was applied to the current (August 2015) UK childhood immunisation programme, plausible extensions to it in the foreseeable future (introducing vaccination against Meningitis B and/or Hepatitis B) and a "what-if" scenario regarding a Hepatitis B vaccine scare that was developed in close collaboration with DH. RESULTS: Our applications of the framework demonstrate that a programme-view of hypothetical changes to the schedule is important. For example, we show how introducing Hepatitis B vaccination could negatively impact aspects of the current programme by reducing uptake of vaccines featuring later in the schedule, and illustrate that the potential benefits of introducing any new vaccine are susceptible to behaviour changes affecting uptake (e.g. a vaccine scare). We show how it may be useful to consider the potential benefits and scheduling needs of all vaccinations on the horizon of interest rather than those of an individual vaccine in isolation, e.g. how introducing Meningitis B vaccination could saturate the early (2-month) visit, thereby potentially restricting scheduling options for Hepatitis B immunisation should it be introduced to the programme in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate the potential benefit of considering the programme-wide impact of changes to an immunisation schedule, and our framework is an important step in the development of a means for systematically doing so

Repeatability of perfusion measurements in adult gliomas using pulsed and pseudo-continuous arterial spin labelling MRI

Objectives: To investigate the repeatability of perfusion measures in gliomas using pulsed- and pseudo-continuous-arterial spin labelling (PASL, PCASL) techniques, and evaluate different regions-of-interest (ROIs) for relative tumour blood flow (rTBF) normalisation. / Materials and methods: Repeatability of cerebral blood flow (CBF) was measured in the Contralateral Normal Appearing Hemisphere (CNAH) and in brain tumours (aTBF). rTBF was normalised using both large/small ROIs from the CNAH. Repeatability was evaluated with intra-class-correlation-coefficient (ICC), Within-Coefficient-of-Variation (WCoV) and Coefficient-of-Repeatability (CR). / Results: PASL and PCASL demonstrated high reliability (ICC > 0.9) for CNAH-CBF, aTBF and rTBF. PCASL demonstrated a more stable signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) with a lower WCoV of the SNR than that of PASL (10.9–42.5% vs. 12.3–29.2%). PASL and PCASL showed higher WCoV in aTBF and rTBF than in CNAH CBF in WM and GM but not in the caudate, and higher WCoV for rTBF than for aTBF when normalised using a small ROI (PASL 8.1% vs. 4.7%, PCASL 10.9% vs. 7.9%, respectively). The lowest CR was observed for rTBF normalised with a large ROI. / Discussion: PASL and PCASL showed similar repeatability for the assessment of perfusion parameters in patients with primary brain tumours as previous studies based on volunteers. Both methods displayed reasonable WCoV in the tumour area and CNAH. PCASL’s more stable SNR in small areas (caudate) is likely to be due to the longer post-labelling delays

Exploring overcrowding trends in an inner city emergence department in the UK before and during COVID-19 epidemic

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated lockdowns have caused significant disruptions across society, including changes in the number of emergency department (ED) visits. This study aims to investigate the impact of three pre-COVID-19 interventions and of the COVID-19 UK-epidemic and the first UK national lockdown on overcrowding within University College London Hospital Emergency Department (UCLH ED). The three interventions: target the influx of patients at ED (A), reduce the pressure on in-patients' beds (B) and improve ED processes to improve the flow of patents out from ED (C). METHODS: We collected overcrowding metrics (daily attendances, the proportion of people leaving within 4 h of arrival (four-hours target) and the reduction in overall waiting time) during 01/04/2017-31/05/2020. We then performed three different analyses, considering three different timeframes. The first analysis used data 01/04/2017-31/12-2019 to calculate changes over a period of 6 months before and after the start of interventions A-C. The second and third analyses focused on evaluating the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, comparing the first 10 months in 2020 and 2019, and of the first national lockdown (23/03/2020-31/05/2020). RESULTS: Pre-COVID-19 all interventions led to small reductions in waiting time (17%, p < 0.001 for A and C; an 9%, p = 0.322 for B) but also to a small decrease in the number of patients leaving within 4 h of arrival (6.6,7.4,6.2% respectively A-C,p < 0.001). In presence of the COVID-19 pandemic, attendance and waiting time were reduced (40% and 8%; p < 0.001), and the number of people leaving within 4 h of arrival was increased (6%,p < 0.001). During the first lockdown, there was 65% reduction in attendance, 22% reduction in waiting time and 8% increase in number of people leaving within 4 h of arrival (p < 0.001). Crucially, when the lockdown was lifted, there was an increase (6.5%,p < 0.001) in the percentage of people leaving within 4 h, together with a larger (12.5%,p < 0.001) decrease in waiting time. This occurred despite the increase of 49.6%(p < 0.001) in attendance after lockdown ended. CONCLUSIONS: The mixed results pre-COVID-19 (significant improvements in waiting time with some interventions but not improvement in the four-hours target), may be due to indirect impacts of these interventions, where increasing pressure on one part of the ED system affected other parts. This underlines the need for multifaceted interventions and a system-wide approach to improve the pathway of flow through the ED system is necessary. During 2020 and in presence of the COVID-19 epidemic, a shift in public behaviour with anxiety over attending hospitals and higher use of virtual consultations, led to notable drop in UCLH ED attendance and consequential curbing of overcrowding. Importantly, once the lockdown was lifted, although there was an increase in arrivals at UCLH ED, overcrowding metrics were reduced. Thus, the combination of shifted public behaviour and the restructuring changes during COVID-19 epidemic, maybe be able to curb future ED overcrowding, but longer timeframe analysis is required to confirm this

Are we prepared for the next influenza pandemic? Lessons from modelling different preparedness policies against four pandemic scenarios.

In the event of a novel influenza strain that is markedly different to the current strains circulating in humans, the population have little/no immunity and infection spreads quickly causing a global pandemic. Over the past century, there have been four major influenza pandemics: the 1918 pandemic ("Spanish Flu"), the 1957-58 pandemic (the "Asian Flu"), the 1967-68 pandemic (the "Hong Kong Flu") and the 2009 pandemic (the "Swine flu"). To inform planning against future pandemics, this paper investigates how different is the net-present value of employing pre-purchase and responsive- purchased vaccine programmes in presence and absence of anti-viral drugs to scenarios that resemble these historic influenza pandemics. Using the existing literature and in discussions with policy decision makers in the UK, we first characterised the four past influenza pandemics by their transmissibility and infection-severity. For these combinations of parameters, we then projected the net-present value of employing pre-purchase vaccine (PPV) and responsive-purchase vaccine (RPV) programmes in presence and absence of anti-viral drugs. To differentiate between PPV and RPV policies, we changed the vaccine effectiveness value and the time to when the vaccine is first available. Our results are "heat-map" graphs displaying the benefits of different strategies in pandemic scenarios that resemble historic influenza pandemics. Our results suggest that immunisation with either PPV or RPV in presence of a stockpile of effective antiviral drugs, does not have positive net-present value for all of the pandemic scenarios considered. In contrast, in the absence of effective antivirals, both PPV and RPV policies have positive net-present value across all the pandemic scenarios. Moreover, in all considered circumstances, vaccination was most beneficial if started sufficiently early and covered sufficiently large number of people. When comparing the two vaccine programmes, the RPV policy allowed a longer timeframe and lower coverage to attain the same benefit as the PPV policy. Our findings suggest that responsive-purchase vaccination policy has a bigger window of positive net-present value when employed against each of the historic influenza pandemic strains but needs to be rapidly available to maximise benefit. This is important for future planning as it suggests that future preparedness policies may wish to consider utilising timely (i.e. responsive-purchased) vaccines against emerging influenza pandemics

Systematic review: Investigating the prognostic performance of four non‐invasive tests in alcohol‐related liver disease

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Mortality of Alcohol-related-Liver-Disease (ArLD) is increasing, and liver fibrosis stage is the best mortality predictor. Non-invasive-tests (NIT) are increasingly used to detect fibrosis, but their value as prognostic tests in chronic liver disease (CLD), and in particular in ArLD is less well recognized. We aimed to describe the prognostic performance of four widely used NITs (FIB4, ELF test, FibroScan and FibroTest) in ArLD. METHODS: Applying systematic-review methodology, four databases were searched from inception to May 2020. Inclusion/exclusion criteria were applied to search using MeSH terms and keywords. First and second reviewers independently screened results, extracted data and performed risk-of-bias assessment using Quality-In-Prognostic-Studies (QUIPS) tool. RESULTS: Searches produced 25,088 articles. After initial screening, 1,020 articles were reviewed independently by both reviewers. Eleven articles remained after screening for eligibility: one on ELF, four on FibroScan, four on FIB4, one on FIB4+FibroScan and one on FibroTest+FIB4. Area-Under-Receiving-Operator-Characteristics-curves (AUROCS) for outcome-prediction ranged from: 0.65-0.76 for FibroScan, 0.64-0.83 for FIB4, 0.69-0.79 for FibroTest and 0.72-0.85 for ELF. Studies scored low-moderate risk of bias for most domains, but high-risk in confounding/statistical reporting domains. The results were heterogeneous for outcomes and reporting, making pooling of data unfeasible. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic-review returned eleven papers, six of which were conference-abstracts and one unpublished manuscript. Whilst the heterogeneity of studies precluded direct comparisons of NITs, each NIT performed well in individual studies in predicting prognosis in ArLD (AUROCs >0.7 in each NIT category), and may add value to prognostication in clinical practice