The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Looking Back (more than) 25 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years

This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.Comment: Submitted to Special Issue of the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: 25 years of ensemble predictio

Once daily long-acting beta2-agonists and long-acting muscarinic antagonists in a combined inhaler versus placebo for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Background Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a respiratory condition causing accumulation of mucus in the airways, cough, and breathlessness; the disease is progressive and is the fourth most common cause of death worldwide. Current treatment strategies for COPD are multi-modal and aim to reduce morbidity and mortality and increase patients’ quality of life by slowing disease progression and preventing exacerbations. Fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) of a long-acting beta 2 -agonist (LABA) plus a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) delivered via a single inhaler are approved by regulatory authorities in the USA, Europe, and Japan for the treatment of COPD. Several LABA/LAMA FDCs are available and recent meta-analyses have clarified their utility versus their mono-components in COPD. Evaluation of the efficacy and safety of once-daily LABA/LAMA FDCs versus placebo will facilitate the comparison of different FDCs in future network meta-analyses. Objectives We assessed the evidence for once-daily LABA/LAMA combinations (delivered in a single inhaler) versus placebo on clinically meaningful outcomes in patients with stable COPD. Search methods We identified trials from Cochrane Airways’ Specialised Register (CASR) and also conducted a search of the US National Institutes of Health Ongoing Trials Register ClinicalTrials.gov (www.clinicaltrials.gov) and the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (apps.who.int/trialsearch). We searched CASR and trial registries from their inception to 3 December 2018; we imposed no restriction on language of publication. Selection criteria We included parallel-group and cross-over randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing once-daily LABA/LAMA FDC versus placebo. We included studies reported as full-text, those published as abstract only, and unpublished data. We excluded very short-term trials with a duration of less than 3 weeks. We included adults (≥ 40 years old) with a diagnosis of stable COPD. We included studies that allowed participants to continue using their ICS during the trial as long as the ICS was not part of the randomised treatment. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently screened the search results to determine included studies, extracted data on prespecified outcomes of interest, and assessed the risk of bias of included studies; we resolved disagreements by discussion with a third review author. Where possible, we used a random-effects model to meta-analyse extracted data. We rated all outcomes using the GRADE (Grades of Recommendation, Assessment, Development and Evaluation) system and presented results in’Summary of findings’ tables. Main results We identified and included 22 RCTs randomly assigning 8641 people with COPD to either once-daily LABA/LAMA FDC (6252 participants) or placebo (3819 participants); nine studies had a cross-over design. Studies had a duration of between three and 52 weeks (median 12 weeks). The mean age of participants across the included studies ranged from 59 to 65 years and in 21 of 22 studies, participants had GOLD stage II or III COPD. Concomitant inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) use was permitted in all of the included studies (where stated); across the included studies, between 28% to 58% of participants were using ICS at baseline. Six studies evaluated the once-daily combination of IND/GLY (110/50 µg), seven studies evaluated TIO/OLO (2.5/5 or 5/5 µg), eight studies evaluated UMEC/VI (62.5/5, 125/25 or 500/25 µg) and one study evaluated ACD/FOR (200/6, 200/12 or 200/18 µg); all LABA/LAMA combinations were compared with placebo. The risk of bias was generally considered to be low or unknown (insufficient detail provided), with only one study per domain considered to have a high risk of bias except for the domain’other bias’ which was determined to be at high risk of bias in four studies (in three studies, disease severity was greater at baseline in participants receiving LABA/LAMA compared with participants receiving placebo, which would be expected to shift the treatment effect in favour of placebo). Compared to the placebo, the pooled results for the primary outcomes for the once-daily LABA/LAMA arm were as follows: all-cause mortality, OR 1.88 (95% CI 0.81 to 4.36, low-certainty evidence); all-cause serious adverse events (SAEs), OR 1.06 (95% CI 0.88 to 1.28, high-certainty evidence); acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD), OR 0.53 (95% CI 0.36 to 0.78, moderate-certainty evidence); adjusted St George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) score, MD -4.08 (95% CI -4.80 to -3.36, high-certainty evidence); proportion of SGRQ responders, OR 1.75 (95% CI 1.54 to 1.99). Compared with placebo, the pooled results for the secondary outcomes for the once-daily LABA/LAMA arm were as follows: adjusted trough forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), MD 0.20 L (95% CI 0.19 to 0.21, moderate-certainty evidence); adjusted peak FEV1, MD 0.31 L (95% CI 0.29 to 0.32, moderate-certainty evidence); and all-cause AEs, OR 0.95 (95% CI 0.86 to 1.04; high-certainty evidence). No studies reported data for the 6-minute walk test. The results were generally consistent across subgroups for different LABA/LAMA combinations and doses. Authors’ conclusions Compared with placebo, once-daily LABA/LAMA (either IND/GLY, UMEC/VI or TIO/OLO) via a combination inhaler is associated with a clinically significant improvement in lung function and health-related quality of life in patients with mild-to-moderate COPD; UMEC/VI appears to reduce the rate of exacerbations in this population. These conclusions are supported by moderate or high certainty evidence based on studies with an observation period of up to one year. Copyright © 2019 The Cochrane Collaboration. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Multi-level Dynamical Systems: Connecting the Ruelle Response Theory and the Mori-Zwanzig Approach

In this paper we consider the problem of deriving approximate autonomous dynamics for a number of variables of a dynamical system, which are weakly coupled to the remaining variables. In a previous paper we have used the Ruelle response theory on such a weakly coupled system to construct a surrogate dynamics, such that the expectation value of any observable agrees, up to second order in the coupling strength, to its expectation evaluated on the full dynamics. We show here that such surrogate dynamics agree up to second order to an expansion of the Mori-Zwanzig projected dynamics. This implies that the parametrizations of unresolved processes suited for prediction and for the representation of long term statistical properties are closely related, if one takes into account, in addition to the widely adopted stochastic forcing, the often neglected memory effects.Comment: 14 pages, 1 figur

Antisense oligonucleotide induction of the hnRNPA1b isoform affects pre-mRNA splicing of SMN2 in SMA type I fibroblasts

Spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) is a severe, debilitating neuromuscular condition characterised by loss of motor neurons and progressive muscle wasting. SMA is caused by a loss of expression of SMN1 that encodes the survival motor neuron (SMN) protein necessary for the survival of motor neurons. Restoration of SMN expression through increased inclusion of SMN2 exon 7 is known to ameliorate symptoms in SMA patients. As a consequence, regulation of pre-mRNA splicing of SMN2 could provide a potential molecular therapy for SMA. In this study, we explored if splice switching antisense oligonucleotides could redirect the splicing repressor hnRNPA1 to the hnRNPA1b isoform and restore SMN expression in fibroblasts from a type I SMA patient. Antisense oligonucleotides (AOs) were designed to promote exon 7b retention in the mature mRNA and induce the hnRNPA1b isoform. RT-PCR and western blot analysis were used to assess and monitor the efficiency of different AO combinations. A combination of AOs targeting multiple silencing motifs in hnRNPA1 pre-mRNA led to robust hnRNPA1b induction, which, in turn, significantly increased expression of full-length SMN (FL-SMN) protein. A combination of PMOs targeting the same motifs also strongly induced hnRNPA1b isoform, but surprisingly SMN2 exon 5 skipping was detected, and the PMO cocktail did not lead to a significant increase in expression of FL-SMN protein. We further performed RNA sequencing to assess the genome-wide effects of hnRNPA1b induction. Some 3244 genes were differentially expressed between the hnRNPA1b-induced and untreated SMA fibroblasts, which are functionally enriched in cell cycle and chromosome segregation processes. RT-PCR analysis demonstrated that expression of the master regulator of these enrichment pathways, MYBL2 and FOXM1B, were reduced in response to PMO treatment. These findings suggested that induction of hnRNPA1b can promote SMN protein expression, but not at sufficient levels to be clinically relevant

Stochastic evolution equations driven by Liouville fractional Brownian motion

Let H be a Hilbert space and E a Banach space. We set up a theory of stochastic integration of L(H,E)-valued functions with respect to H-cylindrical Liouville fractional Brownian motions (fBm) with arbitrary Hurst parameter in the interval (0,1). For Hurst parameters in (0,1/2) we show that a function F:(0,T)\to L(H,E) is stochastically integrable with respect to an H-cylindrical Liouville fBm if and only if it is stochastically integrable with respect to an H-cylindrical fBm with the same Hurst parameter. As an application we show that second-order parabolic SPDEs on bounded domains in \mathbb{R}^d, driven by space-time noise which is white in space and Liouville fractional in time with Hurst parameter in (d/4,1) admit mild solution which are H\"older continuous both and space.Comment: To appear in Czech. Math.

Risk factors for estrogen receptor positive ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast in African American women

Background: Compared to U.S. white women, African American women are more likely to die from ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Elucidation of risk factors for DCIS in African American women may provide opportunities for risk reduction. Methods: We used data from three epidemiologic studies in the African American Breast Cancer Epidemiology and Risk Consortium to study risk factors for estrogen receptor (ER) positive DCIS (488 cases; 13,830 controls). Results were compared to associations observed for ER+ invasive breast cancer (n = 2,099). Results: First degree family history of breast cancer was associated with increased risk of ER+ DCIS [odds ratio (OR): 1.69, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.31, 2.17]. Oral contraceptive use within the past 10 years (vs. never) was also associated with increased risk (OR: 1.43, 95%CI: 1.03, 1.97), as was late age at first birth (≥25 years vs. <20 years) (OR: 1.26, 95%CI: 0.96, 1.67). Risk was reduced in women with older age at menarche (≥15 years vs. <11 years) (OR: 0.62, 95%CI: 0.42, 0.93) and higher body mass index (BMI) in early adulthood (≥25 vs. <20 kg/m2 at age 18 or 21) (OR: 0.75, 95%CI: 0.55, 1.01). There was a positive association of recent BMI with risk in postmenopausal women only. In general, associations of risk factors for ER+ DCIS were similar in magnitude and direction to those for invasive ER+ breast cancer. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that most risk factors for invasive ER+ breast cancer are also associated with increased risk of ER+ DCIS among African American women

Sensitivity of the surface orographic gravity wave drag to vertical wind shear over Antarctica

The effects of vertical wind shear on orographic gravity wave drag derived previously from inviscid linear theory are evaluated using reanalysis data. Emphasis is placed on the relative importance of uniform and directional shear (associated with first and second vertical derivatives of the wind velocity), which are theoretically predicted, respectively, to reduce and enhance the surface drag. Two levels at which the wind derivatives are estimated are considered for evaluating the shear corrections to the drag: a height just above the parametrized boundary layer height in the ECMWF model (BLH), and a height of order the standard deviation of the subgrid-scale orography elevation (SDH), adopted by previous authors. A climatology of the Richardson number (Ri) computed for the decade 2006-2015 suggests that the Antarctic region has a high incidence of low Ri values, implying high shear conditions. Shear estimated at the BLH has a relatively modest impact on the drag, whereas shear estimated at the SDH has a stronger impact. Predicted drag enhancement is more widespread than drag reduction because terms involving second wind derivatives dominate the drag correction for a larger fraction of the time than terms involving first derivatives. A comparison of climatologies of the drag corrections for horizontally elliptical mountains (which represent anisotropic subgrid-scale orography in parametrizations) and axisymmetric mountains always results in drag enhancement over Antarctica, with a maximum during the JJA season, showing qualitative robustness to both calculation height and orography anisotropy. However, this enhancement is smaller when using elliptical instead of axisymmetric orography. This is because the shear vector is predominantly oriented along mountain ridges rather than across them when the orography is anisotropic

Postmenopausal female hormone use and estrogen receptor-positive and -negative breast cancer in african American women

Background: Use of estrogen with progestin (combination therapy) is associated with increased incidence of estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancer in observational studies and randomized trials among postmenopausal white women. Whether this is also the case among African American women is not established. Methods: Using data from the AMBER consortium collected from 1993 to 2013, we assessed use of estrogen alone and of combination therapy in relation to ER+ and ER-negative (ER-) breast cancer risk in postmenopausal African American women, based on 1132 ER+ case patients, 512 ER- case patients, and 6693 control patients. Odds ratios (ORs) and confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multinomial logistic regression with control for breast cancer risk factors. Results: Forty-seven percent of control patients had used estrogen alone, combination therapy, or both. The odds ratio for ER+ breast cancer associated with combination use, relative to never use of either estrogen alone or combination therapy, was 1.50 (95% CI = 1.25 to 1.79). The increase was greater for recent (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.21 to 1.99) and long-term use (OR = 1.75, 95% CI = 1.13 to 2.73) and among nonobese women (OR = 1.91, 95% CI = 1.29 to 2.83). Breast cancer risk was increased regardless of the interval between onset of menopause and initiation of combination use (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.11 to 1.85, for <5 year interval; OR = 1.78, 95% CI = 1.34 to 2.37, for ≥5 year interval). Combination use was not associated with risk of ER- breast cancer, and use of estrogen alone was not associated with risk of either ER+ or ER- breast cancer. Conclusion: Use of estrogen with progestin increases risk of ER+ breast cancer in African American women. A decrease in use would be expected to reduce the number of ER+ cancers