In this paper we consider the problem of deriving approximate autonomous
dynamics for a number of variables of a dynamical system, which are weakly
coupled to the remaining variables. In a previous paper we have used the Ruelle
response theory on such a weakly coupled system to construct a surrogate
dynamics, such that the expectation value of any observable agrees, up to
second order in the coupling strength, to its expectation evaluated on the full
dynamics. We show here that such surrogate dynamics agree up to second order to
an expansion of the Mori-Zwanzig projected dynamics. This implies that the
parametrizations of unresolved processes suited for prediction and for the
representation of long term statistical properties are closely related, if one
takes into account, in addition to the widely adopted stochastic forcing, the
often neglected memory effects.Comment: 14 pages, 1 figur
