Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system

We study the impact of three stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendency (SPPT) scheme - which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error. Whilst there are good grounds for implementing stochastic schemes in ocean models, our results suggest that they will have to be more sophisticated. Some suggestions for next-generation stochastic schemes are made.Comment: 24 pages, 3 figure

Oceanic stochastic parametrizations in a seasonal forecast system

We study the impact of three stochastic parametrizations in the ocean component of a coupled model, on forecast reliability over seasonal timescales. The relative impacts of these schemes upon the ocean mean state and ensemble spread are analyzed. The oceanic variability induced by the atmospheric forcing of the coupled system is, in most regions, the major source of ensemble spread. The largest impact on spread and bias came from the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendency (SPPT) scheme - which has proven particularly effective in the atmosphere. The key regions affected are eddy-active regions, namely the western boundary currents and the Southern Ocean. However, unlike its impact in the atmosphere, SPPT in the ocean did not result in a significant decrease in forecast error. Whilst there are good grounds for implementing stochastic schemes in ocean models, our results suggest that they will have to be more sophisticated. Some suggestions for next-generation stochastic schemes are made.Comment: 24 pages, 3 figure

Historical reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis

A reconstruction of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) for the period 1959–2006 has been derived from the ECMWF operational ocean reanalysis. The reconstruction shows a wide range of time-variability, including a downward trend. At 26N, both the MOC intensity and changes in its vertical structure are in good agreement with previous estimates based on trans-Atlantic surveys. At 50N, the MOC and strength of the subpolar gyre are correlated at interannual time scales, but show opposite secular trends. Heat transport variability is highly correlated with the MOC but shows a smaller trend due to the warming of the upper ocean, which partially compensates for the weakening of the circulation. Results from sensitivity experiments show that although the time-varying upper boundary forcing provides useful MOC information, the sequential assimilation of ocean data further improves the MOC estimation by increasing both the mean and the time variability

The relationship between concurrently measured SASS (South African Scoring System) and turbidity data archived in the South African River Health Programme’s Rivers Database

The need for monitoring the biological impacts of instream sediments has long been recognised, yet robust and scientifically defensible tools for doing so are still in the early stages of development because of the difficulties experienced by researchers in characterising the complicated mechanisms of biological effect elicited by sediment particles. Biological monitoring is one such tool, and this paper reports on the initial stages of a study to determine the most applicable approach for measuring the effects of instream sediments on aquatic macroinvertebrates in the South African context. In this first instance, the suitability of the rapid macroinvertebrate biomonitoring tool (the South African Scoring System) was investigated by determining the extent of the correlation between concurrently measured SASS metrics and turbidity data collected for the South African River Health Programme. All three SASS metrics – SASS score, number of taxa (NOT), and average score per taxon (ASPT) – were found to be significantly negatively correlated with turbidity, although variation in the data was high. Turbidity was found to be the major driver of change in ASPT. In contrast, electrical conductivity was the major driver of SASS scores and NOT, with turbidity a close second. When combined, electrical conductivity and turbidity accounted for 80 percent (SASS score) and 75 percent (NOT) of the variation in the regression model. Consequently, SASS metrics are a crude, but reliable, indicator of the negative biological implications of excessive instream sedimentation as measured by turbidity. A number of other potential biomonitoring approaches for detecting the impacts of fine sediment exposure are identified for further investigation: spatial analyses of macroinvertebrate assemblages; and the use of structural and functional metrics

A genome-wide association study suggests an association of Chr8p21.3 (GFRA2) with diabetic neuropathic pain

BACKGROUND: Neuropathic pain, caused by a lesion or a disease affecting the somatosensory system, is one of the most common complications in diabetic patients. The purpose of this study is to identify genetic factors contributing to this type of pain in a general diabetic population. METHOD: We accessed the Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research Tayside (GoDARTS) datasets that contain prescription information and monofilament test results for 9439 diabetic patients, among which 6927 diabetic individuals were genotyped by Affymetrix SNP6.0 or Illumina OmniExpress chips. Cases of neuropathic pain were defined as diabetic patients with a prescription history of at least one of five drugs specifically indicated for the treatment of neuropathic pain and in whom monofilament test result was positive for sensory neuropathy in at least one foot. Controls were individuals who did not have a record of receiving any opioid analgesics. Imputation of non‐genotyped SNPs was performed by IMPUTE2, with reference files from 1000 Genomes Phase I datasets. RESULTS: After data cleaning and relevant exclusions, imputed genotypes of 572 diabetic neuropathic pain cases and 2491 diabetic controls were used in the Fisher's exact test. We identified a cluster in the Chr8p21.3, next to GFRA2 with a lowest p‐value of 1.77 × 10(−7) at rs17428041. The narrow‐sense heritability of this phenotype was 11.00%. CONCLUSION: This genome‐wide association study on diabetic neuropathic pain suggests new evidence for the involvement of variants near GFRA2 with the disorder, which needs to be verified in an independent cohort and at the molecular level

The 100-month Swift catalogue of supergiant fast X-ray transients I. BAT on-board and transient monitor flares

We investigate the characteristics of bright flares for a sample of supergiant fast X-ray transients and their relation to the orbital phase. We have retrieved all Swift/BAT Transient Monitor light curves, and collected all detections in excess of $5\sigma$ from both daily- and orbital-averaged light curves in the time range of 2005-Feb-12 to 2013-May-31. We also considered all on-board detections as recorded in the same time span and selected those within 4 arcmin of each source in our sample and in excess of $5\sigma$. We present a catalogue of over a thousand BAT flares from 11 SFXTs, down to 15-150keV fluxes of $\sim6\times10^{-10}$ erg cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$ (daily timescale) and $\sim1.5\times10^{-9}$ erg cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$ (orbital timescale, averaging $\sim800$s) and spanning 100 months. The great majority of these flares are unpublished. This population is characterized by short (a few hundred seconds) and relatively bright (in excess of 100mCrab, 15-50keV) events. In the hard X-ray, these flares last in general much less than a day. Clustering of hard X-ray flares can be used to indirectly measure the length of an outburst, even when the low-level emission is not detected. We construct the distributions of flares, of their significance (in terms of sigma) and their flux as a function of orbital phase, to infer the properties of these binary systems. In particular, we observe a trend of clustering of flares at some phases as $P_{\rm orb}$ increases, as consistent with a progression from tight, circular or mildly eccentric orbits at short periods, to wider and more eccentric orbits at longer orbital periods. Finally, we estimate the expected number of flares for a given source for our limiting flux and provide the recipe for calculating them for the limiting flux of future hard X-ray observatories. (Abridged).Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics. 23 pages, 8 figures. Full catalog files will be available at CDS and at http://www.ifc.inaf.it/sfxt/ Fixed typos and updated reference

Energy and momentum of cylindrical gravitational waves. II

Recently Nathan Rosen and the present author obtained the energy and momentum densities of cylindrical gravitational waves in Einstein's prescription and found them to be finite and reasonable. In the present paper we calculate the same in prescriptions of Tolman as well as Landau and Lifshitz and discuss the results.Comment: 8 pages, LaTex, To appear in Pramana- J. Physic

Re-evaluating the effect of wind on recruitment in Gulf of Maine Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) using an environmentally-explicit stock recruitment model

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2013. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Fisheries Oceanography 24 (2015): 90-105, doi:10.1111/fog.12095.A previous study documented a correlation between Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment in the Gulf of Maine and an annual index of the north component of May winds. This correlation was supported by modeling studies that indicated unusually strong recruitment of Gulf of Maine Atlantic Cod results from high retention of spring-spawned larvae in years when winds were predominately out of the north, which favor downwelling. We re-evaluated this relationship using updated recruitment estimates and found that the correlation decreased between recruitment and wind. The original relationship was largely driven by two recruitment estimates, one of which (2005 year class) was highly uncertain because it was near the terminal year of the assessment. With additional data, the updated assessment estimated lower recruitment for the 2005 year class, which consequently lowered the correlation between recruitment and wind. We then investigated whether an environmentally-explicit stock recruit function that incorporated an annual wind index was supported by either the original or updated assessment output. Although incorporation of the annual wind index produced a better fitting model, the uncertainty in the estimated parameters and the implied unexploited conditions were not appropriate for providing management advice. These results suggest the need for caution in the development of environmentally-explicit stock recruitment relationships, in particular when basing relationships and hypotheses on recruitment estimates from the terminal years of stock assessment models. More broadly, this study highlights a number of sources of uncertainty that should be considered when analyses are performed on the output of stock assessment models.We also thank the NMFS Fisheries and the Environment program which funded the initial work of Churchill et al. (2011) (FATE Project 08-02) and funded Hare (FATE Project 10-08) to examine environmentally-explicit stock 487 recruitment models