Interactive Reliability Model for Whisker-toughened Ceramics

Wider use of ceramic matrix composites (CMC) will require the development of advanced structural analysis technologies. The use of an interactive model to predict the time-independent reliability of a component subjected to multiaxial loads is discussed. The deterministic, three-parameter Willam-Warnke failure criterion serves as the theoretical basis for the reliability model. The strength parameters defining the model are assumed to be random variables, thereby transforming the deterministic failure criterion into a probabilistic criterion. The ability of the model to account for multiaxial stress states with the same unified theory is an improvement over existing models. The new model was coupled with a public-domain finite element program through an integrated design program. This allows a design engineer to predict the probability of failure of a component. A simple structural problem is analyzed using the new model, and the results are compared to existing models

Structural reliability analysis of laminated CMC components

For laminated ceramic matrix composite (CMC) materials to realize their full potential in aerospace applications, design methods and protocols are a necessity. The time independent failure response of these materials is focussed on and a reliability analysis is presented associated with the initiation of matrix cracking. A public domain computer algorithm is highlighted that was coupled with the laminate analysis of a finite element code and which serves as a design aid to analyze structural components made from laminated CMC materials. Issues relevant to the effect of the size of the component are discussed, and a parameter estimation procedure is presented. The estimation procedure allows three parameters to be calculated from a failure population that has an underlying Weibull distribution

Analysis of whisker-toughened ceramic components: A design engineer's viewpoint

The use of ceramics components in gas turbines, cutting tools, and heat exchangers has been limited by the relatively low flaw tolerance of monolithic ceramics. The development of whisker toughened ceramic composites offers the potential for considerable improvement in fracture toughness as well as strength. However, the variability of strength is still too high for the application of deterministic design approaches. Several phenomenological reliability theories proposed for this material system are reviewed and the development is reported of a public domain computer algorithm. This algorithm, when coupled with a general purpose finite element program, predicts the fast fracture reliability of a structural component under multiaxial loading conditions

Parameter estimation techniques based on optimizing goodness-of-fit statistics for structural reliability

New methods are presented that utilize the optimization of goodness-of-fit statistics in order to estimate Weibull parameters from failure data. It is assumed that the underlying population is characterized by a three-parameter Weibull distribution. Goodness-of-fit tests are based on the empirical distribution function (EDF). The EDF is a step function, calculated using failure data, and represents an approximation of the cumulative distribution function for the underlying population. Statistics (such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and the Anderson-Darling statistic) measure the discrepancy between the EDF and the cumulative distribution function (CDF). These statistics are minimized with respect to the three Weibull parameters. Due to nonlinearities encountered in the minimization process, Powell's numerical optimization procedure is applied to obtain the optimum value of the EDF. Numerical examples show the applicability of these new estimation methods. The results are compared to the estimates obtained with Cooper's nonlinear regression algorithm

Analysis of Whisker-Toughened Ceramic Components -- A Design Engineer\u27s Viewpoint

The use of ceramics components in gas turbines, cutting tools, and heat exchangers has been limited by the relatively low flaw tolerance of monolithic ceramics. The development of whisker-toughened ceramic composites offers the potential for considerable improvement in fracture toughness as well as strength. However, the variability of strength is still too high for the application of deterministic design approaches. This report reviews several phenomenological reliability theories proposed for this material system, and reports on the development of a public domain computer algorithm. This algorithm, when coupled with a general-purpose finite element program, predicts the fast fracture reliability of a structural component under multiaxial loading conditions

Development of Design Analysis Methods for C/SiC Composite Structures

The stress-strain behavior at room temperature and at 1100 C (2000 F) was measured for two carbon-fiber-reinforced silicon carbide (C/SiC) composite materials: a two-dimensional plain-weave quasi-isotropic laminate and a three-dimensional angle-interlock woven composite. Micromechanics-based material models were developed for predicting the response properties of these two materials. The micromechanics based material models were calibrated by correlating the predicted material property values with the measured values. Four-point beam bending sub-element specimens were fabricated with these two fiber architectures and four-point bending tests were performed at room temperature and at 1100 C. Displacements and strains were measured at various locations along the beam and recorded as a function of load magnitude. The calibrated material models were used in concert with a nonlinear finite element solution to simulate the structural response of these two materials in the four-point beam bending tests. The structural response predicted by the nonlinear analysis method compares favorably with the measured response for both materials and for both test temperatures. Results show that the material models scale up fairly well from coupon to subcomponent level

A Theoretical Investigation of Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel (COPV) Mechanics Applied to NASA Full Scale Tests

A theoretical investigation of the factors controlling the stress rupture life of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) continues. Kevlar (DuPont) fiber overwrapped tanks are of particular concern due to their long usage and the poorly understood stress rupture process in Kevlar filaments. Existing long term data show that the rupture process is a function of stress, temperature and time. However due to the presence of a load sharing liner, the manufacturing induced residual stresses and the complex mechanical response, the state of actual fiber stress in flight hardware and test articles is not clearly known. This paper is a companion to a previously reported experimental investigation and develops a theoretical framework necessary to design full-scale pathfinder experiments and accurately interpret the experimentally observed deformation and failure mechanisms leading up to static burst in COPVs. The fundamental mechanical response of COPVs is described using linear elasticity and thin shell theory and discussed in comparison to existing experimental observations. These comparisons reveal discrepancies between physical data and the current analytical results and suggest that the vessel s residual stress state and the spatial stress distribution as a function of pressure may be completely different from predictions based upon existing linear elastic analyses. The 3D elasticity of transversely isotropic spherical shells demonstrates that an overly compliant transverse stiffness relative to membrane stiffness can account for some of this by shifting a thin shell problem well into the realm of thick shell response. The use of calibration procedures are demonstrated as calibrated thin shell model results and finite element results are shown to be in good agreement with the experimental results. The successes reported here have lead to continuing work with full scale testing of larger NASA COPV hardware

Engineering Analysis Studies for Preliminary Design of Lightweight Cryogenic Hydrogen Tanks in UAV Applications

A series of engineering analysis studies were conducted to investigate the potential application of nanoclay-enhanced graphite/epoxy composites and polymer cross-linked silica aerogels in cryogenic hydrogen storage tank designs. This assessment focused on the application of these materials in spherical tank designs for unmanned aeronautic vehicles with mission durations of 14 days. Two cryogenic hydrogen tank design concepts were considered: a vacuum-jacketed design and a sandwiched construction with an aerogel insulating core. Analyses included thermal and structural analyses of the tank designs as well as an analysis of hydrogen diffusion to specify the material permeability requirements. The analyses also provided material property targets for the continued development of cross-linked aerogels and nanoclay-enhanced graphite/epoxy composites for cryogenic storage tank applications. The results reveal that a sandwiched construction with an aerogel core is not a viable design solution for a 14-day mission. A vacuum-jacketed design approach was shown to be far superior to an aerogel. Aerogel insulation may be feasible for shorter duration missions. The results also reveal that the application of nanoclay-enhanced graphite/epoxy should be limited to the construction of outer tanks in a vacuum-jacketed design, since a graphite/epoxy inner tank does not provide a significant weight savings over aluminum and since the ability of nanoclay-enhanced graphite/epoxy to limit hydrogen permeation is still in question

Utilizing Radioisotope Power System Waste Heat for Spacecraft Thermal Management

One of the advantages of using a Radioisotope Power System (RPS) for deep space or planetary surface missions is the readily available waste heat, which can be used to maintain electronic components within a controlled temperature range, to warm propulsion tanks and mobility actuators, and to gasify liquid propellants. Previous missions using Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) dissipated a very large quantity of waste heat due to the relatively low efficiency of the thermoelectric conversion technology. The next generation RPSs, such as the 110-watt Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) will have much higher conversion efficiencies than their predecessors and therefore may require alternate approaches to transferring waste heat to the spacecraft. RTGs, with efficiencies of approx. 6 to 7% and 200 C housing surface temperatures, would need to use large and heavy radiator heat exchangers to transfer the waste heat to the internal spacecraft components. At the same time, sensitive spacecraft instruments must be shielded from the thermal radiation by using the heat exchangers or additional shields. The SRG110, with an efficiency around 22% and 50 C nominal housing surface temperature, can use the available waste heat more efficiently by more direct heat transfer methods such as heat pipes, thermal straps, or fluid loops. The lower temperatures allow the SRG110 much more flexibility to the spacecraft designers in configuring the generator without concern of overheating nearby scientific instruments, thereby eliminating the need for thermal shields. This paper will investigate using a high efficiency SRG110 for spacecraft thermal management and outline potential methods in several conceptual missions (Lunar Rover, Mars Rover, and Titan Lander) to illustrate the advantages with regard to ease of assembly, less complex interfaces, and overall mass savings

Analysis of Whisker-Toughened Ceramic Components Using an Interactive Reliability Model

Realizing wider use of ceramic matrix composites requires the development of advanced structural analysis technologies. This article focuses on the use of interactive reliability models to predict component probability of failure. The deterministic Willam-Warnke failure criterion is the theoretical basis for the reliability model presented herein. The model has been incorporated into a test-bed software program. This computer program is coupled to a general-purpose finite element program. A simple structural problem is presented to illustrate the reliability model and the computer algorithm. © 1994 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., All rights reserved