Cascading Effects of Fuel Network Interdiction

This thesis develops the Fuel Interdiction and Resulting Cascading Effects (FI&RCE) model. The study details the development and experimental testing of a framework for assessing the interdiction of a refined petroleum production and distribution network. FI&RCE uses a maximum flow mathematical programming formulation that models the transit of fuels from points of importation and refinement through a polyduct distribution network for delivery across a range of end user locations. The automated model accommodates networks of varying size and complexity. FI&RCE allows for parameters and factor settings that enable robust experimentation through implementation in MATLAB 2014 and the commercial solver CPLEX (Version 12.5). Experimental design allows the investigation of interdiction or disruption on supply and network infrastructure locations in order to support the strategic analytical needs of the user. Given a target set, FI&RCE provides measured responses for the resulting fuel availability and a valuation of economic loss. The value of economic loss feeds a Leontief based input-output model that assesses the cascading effects in the studied economy by implementing a mathematical program that optimizes the remaining industrial outputs. FI&RCE demonstrates a framework to investigate the military and cascading effects of a fuel interdiction campaign plan using a realistic case study

The conference effect: National surgery meetings are associated with increased mortality at trauma centers without American College of Surgeons verification

BACKGROUND: Thousands of physicians attend scientific conferences each year. While recent data indicate that variation in staffing during such meetings impacts survival of non-surgical patients, the association between treatment during conferences and outcomes of a surgical population remain unknown. The purpose of this study was to examine mortality resulting from traumatic injuries and the influence of hospital admission during national surgery meetings. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of in-hospital mortality using data from the Trauma Quality Improvement Program (2010-2011). Identified patients admitted during four annual meetings and compared their mortality with that of patients admitted during non-conference periods. Analysis included 155 hospitals with 12,256 patients admitted on 42 conference days and 82,399 patients admitted on 270 non-conference days. Multivariate analysis performed separately for hospitals with different levels of trauma center verification by state and American College of Surgeons (ACS) criteria. RESULTS: Patient characteristics were similar between meeting and non-meeting dates. At ACS level I and level II trauma centers during conference versus non-conference dates, adjusted mortality was not significantly different. However, adjusted mortality increased significantly for patients admitted to trauma centers that lacked ACS trauma verification during conferences versus non-conference days (OR 1.2, p = 0.008), particularly for patients with penetrating injuries, whose mortality rose from 11.6% to 15.9% (p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Trauma mortality increased during surgery conferences compared to non-conference dates for patients admitted to hospitals that lacked ACS trauma level verification. The mortality difference at those hospitals was greatest for patients who presented with penetrating injuries

Remote Sensing Of The Cryosphere In High Mountain Asia

High Mountain Asia (HMA), often referred to as the "third pole" of the world because its high elevation glaciers, contains the largest amount of fresh water outside the polar ice sheets. The region's hydrology is strongly controlled by variations in the timing and distribution of runoff from snow and glacier melt. Recent improvements in remote sensing technologies and atmospheric / land surface models provides new approaches for assessing the HMA cryosphere. A recently-funded NASA program aims to apply these tools to advance understanding of HMA cryospheric processes. Here we present an overview of planned team activities during the three-year project

Mechanical Trapping in a Quadratically Coupled Optomechanical Double Disk

We demonstrate a novel approach for trapping mechanical motion and elastic tuning of mechanical rigidity while preserving phonon number, through a giant quadratic optomechanical coupling created from a tunable coupled microdisk resonator

Observed multivariable signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity

The relatively muted warming of the surface and lower troposphere since 1998 has attracted considerable attention. One contributory factor to this “warming hiatus” is an increase in volcanically induced cooling over the early 21st century. Here we identify the signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity in multiple observed climate variables. Volcanic signals are statistically discernible in spatial averages of tropical and near-global SST, tropospheric temperature, net clear-sky short-wave radiation, and atmospheric water vapor. Signals of late 20th and early 21st century volcanic eruptions are also detectable in near-global averages of rainfall. In tropical average rainfall, however, only a Pinatubo-caused drying signal is identifiable. Successful volcanic signal detection is critically dependent on removal of variability induced by the El Nino–Southern Oscillation.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant AGS-1342810

Failure to detect mutations in U2AF1 due to changes in the GRCh38 reference sequence

The U2AF1 gene is a core part of mRNA splicing machinery and frequently contains somatic mutations that contribute to oncogenesis in myelodysplastic syndrome, acute myeloid leukemia, and other cancers. A change introduced in the GRCh38 version of the human reference build prevents detection of mutations in this gene, and others, by variant calling pipelines. This study describes the problem in detail and shows that a modified GRCh38 reference build with unchanged coordinates can be used to ameliorate the issue

Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates

In the early twenty-first century, satellite-derived tropospheric warming trends were generally smaller than trends estimated from a large multi-model ensemble. Because observations and coupled model simulations do not have the same phasing of natural internal variability, such decadal differences in simulated and observed warming rates invariably occur. Here we analyse global-mean tropospheric temperatures from satellites and climate model simulations to examine whether warming rate differences over the satellite era can be explained by internal climate variability alone. We find that in the last two decades of the twentieth century, differences between modelled and observed tropospheric temperature trends are broadly consistent with internal variability. Over most of the early twenty-first century, however, model tropospheric warming is substantially larger than observed; warming rate differences are generally outside the range of trends arising from internal variability. The probability that multi-decadal internal variability fully explains the asymmetry between the late twentieth and early twenty-first century results is low (between zero and about 9%). It is also unlikely that this asymmetry is due to the combined effects of internal variability and a model error in climate sensitivity. We conclude that model overestimation of tropospheric warming in the early twenty-first century is partly due to systematic deficiencies in some of the post-2000 external forcings used in the model simulations

The ecology of dust: local- to global-scale perspectives

Emission and redistribution of dust due to wind erosion in drylands drives major biogeochemical dynamics and provides important aeolian environmental connectivity at scales from individual plants up to the global scale. Yet, perhaps because most relevant research on aeolian processes has been presented in a geosciences rather than ecological context, most ecological studies do not explicitly consider dust-driven processes. To bridge this disciplinary gap, we provide a general overview of the ecological importance of dust, examine complex interactions between wind erosion and ecosystem dynamics from the plant-interspace scale to regional and global scales, and highlight specific examples of how disturbance affects these interactions and their consequences. Changes in climate and intensification of land use will both likely lead to increased dust production. To address these challenges, environmental scientists, land managers and policy makers need to more explicitly consider dust in resource management decisions

Volcanic Contribution to Decadal Changes in Tropospheric Temperature

Despite continued growth in atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases, global mean surface and tropospheric temperatures have shown slower warming since 1998 than previously. Possible explanations for the slow-down include internal climate variability, external cooling influences and observational errors. Several recent modelling studies have examined the contribution of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions to the muted surface warming. Here we present a detailed analysis of the impact of recent volcanic forcing on tropospheric temperature, based on observations as well as climate model simulations. We identify statistically significant correlations between observations of stratospheric aerosol optical depth and satellite-based estimates of both tropospheric temperature and short-wave fluxes at the top of the atmosphere. We show that climate model simulations without the effects of early twenty-first-century volcanic eruptions overestimate the tropospheric warming observed since 1998. In two simulations with more realistic volcanic influences following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, differences between simulated and observed tropospheric temperature trends over the period 1998 to 2012 are up to 15% smaller, with large uncertainties in the magnitude of the effect. To reduce these uncertainties, better observations of eruption-specific properties of volcanic aerosols are needed, as well as improved representation of these eruption-specific properties in climate model simulations