Should Africa Industrialize?

Africa should industrialize. Without structural change it cannot sustain recent growth. Economies with more diverse and sophisticated industrial sectors tend to grow faster. But since 1980 Africa has deindustrialized. The paper shows that between 1975 and 2005 the size, diversity and sophistication of industry in Africa have all declined. An industrialization strategy containing two elements is needed. The first is straightforward: refocusing current investment climate reforms on infrastructure, skills, and regional integration. These actions alone will not be sufficient, however. Africa must also learn to compete through strategies to create an export push, develop industrial clusters, and attract task-based production.Africa, industry, industrial policy, growth, sophistication, exports

Space education: Deriving benefits from industrial consortia

As the number of spacefaring nations of the world increases, so does the difficulty of competing in a global economy. The development of high technology products and services for space programs, and the economic exploitation of these technologies for national economic growth, requires professionals versed in both technical and commercial aspects of space. Meeting this requirement academically presents two challenges. On the technical side, enrollment in science and engineering is decreasing in some of the spacefaring nations. From the commerce perspective, very few colleges and universities offer specific courses in space business

Hunting for Leopards : long run country income dynamics in Africa

This paper examines the country-level dynamics of long-run growth in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors examine how growth has affected mobility and the distribution of income among countries. They analyze changes in cross-country income structure and convergence, and look for evidence of the formation of country groups or"clubs."Using a novel method of breaking up the growth histories of African economies into medium-term spells of growth accelerations and declines, the authors investigate whether a group of African"leopards"- the regional equivalent of Asia's"tigers"- is beginning to emerge.Economic Conditions and Volatility,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Theory&Research,Economic Growth,Inequality

More growth or fewer collapses ? a new look at long run growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Low and highly volatile growth define Africa's growth experience. But there is no evidence that growth volatility is associated to long term economic performance. This result may be misleading if it suggests that volatility is not important for economic and social progress. In this paper we use a variant of the method developed by Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik (2005) to identify both growth acceleration and deceleration episodes in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors find that Africa has had numerous growth acceleration episodes in the last 30 years, but also nearly a comparable number of growth collapses, offsetting most of the benefits of growth. Had Africa avoided its growth collapses, it would have grown 1.7 percent a year instead of 0.7 percent, and its GDP per capita would have been more than 30 percent higher in 2005. The authors also find that growth accelerations and decelerations have an asymmetric impact on human development outcomes. Finally, our results suggest that it is easier to identify the likely institutional and policy origins of growth decelerations than of growth accelerations.Governance Indicators,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Economic Growth,Nutrition

Patterns of long term growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

Using the most recent purchasing power parity data for 44 sub-Saharan African countries, this paper examines the characteristics of long run growth in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors investigate the following issues: cross-country income structure, income convergence, the country level distribution of income, growth and income persistence, and formation of convergence clubs.Economic Conditions and Volatility,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Growth,Inequality

The ammonolysis of esters in liquid ammonia

The rates of ammonolysis of alkyl benzoate and phenylacetate esters in liquid ammonia increase with the acidity of the leaving group alcohol and show relatively large Brønsted βlg values of −1.18 and −1.34, respectively, when plotted against the aqueous pKa of the alcohol. The Brønsted βlg obtained using the pKa of the leaving group alcohol in liquid ammonia is significantly reduced to ~ −0.7, which indicates that the rate-limiting step involves a reaction of the tetrahedral intermediate with little C–OR bond fission in the transition state. The solvolysis reaction is subject to significant catalysis by ammonium ion, which, surprisingly, generates a similar Brønsted βlg indicating little interaction between the ammonium ion and the leaving group. It is concluded that the rate-limiting step for the ammonium-ion-catalysed solvolysis of alkyl esters in liquid ammonia is the diffusion-controlled protonation of the zwitterionic tetrahedral intermediate T+- to give T+, which is rapidly deprotonated to give T0 which is compatible with the rate-limiting step for the uncatalysed reaction being the formation of the neutral T0 by a ‘proton switc

The magnitude distribution of earthquakes near Southern California faults

We investigate seismicity near faults in the Southern California Earthquake Center Community Fault Model. We search for anomalously large events that might be signs of a characteristic earthquake distribution. We find that seismicity near major fault zones in Southern California is well modeled by a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, with no evidence of characteristic earthquakes within the resolution limits of the modern instrumental catalog. However, the b value of the locally observed magnitude distribution is found to depend on distance to the nearest mapped fault segment, which suggests that earthquakes nucleating near major faults are likely to have larger magnitudes relative to earthquakes nucleating far from major faults

International migration, remittances, and poverty in developing countries

Few studies have examined the impact of international migration and remittances on poverty in a broad cross-section of developing countries. The authors try to fill this gap by constructing a new data set on poverty, international migration, and remittances for 74 low- and middle-income developing countries. Four key findings emerge: 1) International migration-defined as the share of a country's population living abroad-has a strong, statistical impact in reducing poverty. On average, a 10 percent increase in the share of international migrants in a country's population will lead to a 1.9 percent decline in the share of people living in poverty ($1.00 a person a day). 2) Distance to a major labor-receiving region-like the United States or OECD (Europe)-has an important effect on international migration. Developing countries that are located closest to the United States or OECD (Europe) are also those countries withthe highest rates of migration. 3) An inverted U-shaped curve exists between the level of country per capita income and international migration. Developing countries with low or high per capita GDP produce smaller shares of international migrants than do middle-income developing countries. The authors find no evidence that developing countries with higher levels of poverty produce more migrants. Because of considerable travel costs associated with international migration, international migrants come from those income groups which are just above the poverty line in middle-income developing countries. 4) International remittances-defined as the share of remittances in country GDP-have a strong, statistical impact in reducing poverty. On average, a 10 percent increase in the share of international remittances in a country's GDP will lead to a 1.6 percent decline in the share of people living in poverty.Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Health Economics&Finance,Public Health Promotion,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Poverty Assessment,Economic Conditions and Volatility,Achieving Shared Growth

Launch system development in the Pacific Rim

Several Western Pacific Rim nations are beginning to challenge the domination of the United States, Europe, and the former Soviet Union in the international market for commercial launch sevices. This paper examines the current development of launch systems in China, Japan, and Australia. China began commercial launch services with their Long March-3 in April 1990, and is making enhancements to vehicles in this family. Japan is developing the H-2 rocket which will be marketed on a commercial basis. In Australia, British Aerospace Ltd. is leading a team conducting a project definition study for an Australian Launch Vehicle, aimed at launching the new generation of satellites into low Earth orbit

Is Africa's economy at a turning point?

In this paper, Arbache, Go, and Page examine the recent acceleration of growth in Africa. Unlike the past, the performance is now registered broadly across several types of countries-particularly the oil-exporting and resource-intensive countries and, in more recent years, the large- and middle-income economies, as well as coastal and low-income countries. The analysis confirms a trend break in the mid-1990s, identifying a growth acceleration that is due not only to favorable terms of trade and greater aid, but also to better policy. Indeed, the growth diagnostics show that more and more African countries have been able to avoid mistakes with better macropolicy, better governance, and fewer conflicts; as a result, the likelihood of growth decelerations has declined significantly. Nonetheless, the sustainability of that growth is fragile, because economic fundamentals, such as savings, investment, productivity, and export diversification, remain stagnant. The good news in the story is that African economies appear to have learned how to avoid the mistakes that led to the frequent growth collapses between 1975 and 1995. The bad news is that much less is known about the recipes for long-term success in development, such as developing the right institutions and the policies to raise savings and diversify exports, than about how to avoid economic bad times.Economic Conditions and Volatility,Governance Indicators,Achieving Shared Growth,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets