Reimbursable research at NPS

CRUSER TechCon 2018 Research at NPS. Wednesday 1: SensingThe rapid development in autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence over the last decade has left most analysts and scholars convinced that the armed forces are facing a large scale change of technology, doctrine and organization. But few if any have addressed the question of how large this change will be and in what areas the change will come. It used to be the case that robots were made to perform repetitive and manual tasks, mainly replacing low-skilled workers. This latest version of automation is however being driven by new achievements in artificial intelligence and machine learning, and access to big data. This has the potential to not only change what kind of jobs our robots do, but also what kind of job the humans do. The aim of this paper is to quantify the amount of change and identify where that change will most likely occur. In this paper I use the US Navy as a case study to gain insights into the wider consequences for the armed forces. By using methodology developed for studying the computerization of the US economy, I am able to assess over 1,500 different occupations in the Navy. The 173 military specific occupations have not yet been assessed. The 1,500 occupations are assessed along three critical dimensions: the need for discerning perception and manipulation in task execution, the need for creative intelligence and the need for social intelligence. A task that requires little complexity in perception and manipulation, does not need to creativity and does not interact in a complex manner with others, is thus deemed likely to be computerized and replaced by robots and algorithms. Taking advantage of the extreme detail in the available descriptions of the different occupations, each occupation is thus assigned a probability of being replaced within the next two decades. Around a quarter of the occupations, 400, are found to have a higher than 70 percent chance of being computerized, while 850 have a lower than 30 percent chance of being computerized. More than half of the occupations in the Navy are thus not likely to be directly affected of the coming of the robots. Almost all of the occupations deemed having a high risk of being automated are in support services. Typical examples are culinary specialist, data transcriber, accounting, and a range of occupations involved in maintenance operation of equipment. Surprisingly large shares of the occupations that are deemed to have a high likelihood are either officer's occupations or warrant officer's occupations. Enlisted and civilians are almost unrepresented in this group. Based on these findings there is reason to believe that the potential for computerization is somewhat lower in the armed forces than in the economy as a whole. The occupations that have been assigned a high probability still represent a tantalizing opportunity for the Navy and the armed forces as a whole, and the potential benefits from seeking computerization in these low hanging fruits might be large. Scholars and military planners alike should train their eyes on this topic to get a better understanding of the dynamics and implications of the coming change

Reimbursable research at NPS [video]

CRUSER TechCon 2018 Research at NPS. Wednesday 1: SensingThe rapid development in autonomous vehicles and artificial intelligence over the last decade has left most analysts and scholars convinced that the armed forces are facing a large scale change of technology, doctrine and organization. But few if any have addressed the question of how large this change will be and in what areas the change will come. It used to be the case that robots were made to perform repetitive and manual tasks, mainly replacing low-skilled workers. This latest version of automation is however being driven by new achievements in artificial intelligence and machine learning, and access to big data. This has the potential to not only change what kind of jobs our robots do, but also what kind of job the humans do. The aim of this paper is to quantify the amount of change and identify where that change will most likely occur. In this paper I use the US Navy as a case study to gain insights into the wider consequences for the armed forces. By using methodology developed for studying the computerization of the US economy, I am able to assess over 1,500 different occupations in the Navy. The 173 military specific occupations have not yet been assessed. The 1,500 occupations are assessed along three critical dimensions: the need for discerning perception and manipulation in task execution, the need for creative intelligence and the need for social intelligence. A task that requires little complexity in perception and manipulation, does not need to creativity and does not interact in a complex manner with others, is thus deemed likely to be computerized and replaced by robots and algorithms. Taking advantage of the extreme detail in the available descriptions of the different occupations, each occupation is thus assigned a probability of being replaced within the next two decades. Around a quarter of the occupations, 400, are found to have a higher than 70 percent chance of being computerized, while 850 have a lower than 30 percent chance of being computerized. More than half of the occupations in the Navy are thus not likely to be directly affected of the coming of the robots. Almost all of the occupations deemed having a high risk of being automated are in support services. Typical examples are culinary specialist, data transcriber, accounting, and a range of occupations involved in maintenance operation of equipment. Surprisingly large shares of the occupations that are deemed to have a high likelihood are either officer's occupations or warrant officer's occupations. Enlisted and civilians are almost unrepresented in this group. Based on these findings there is reason to believe that the potential for computerization is somewhat lower in the armed forces than in the economy as a whole. The occupations that have been assigned a high probability still represent a tantalizing opportunity for the Navy and the armed forces as a whole, and the potential benefits from seeking computerization in these low hanging fruits might be large. Scholars and military planners alike should train their eyes on this topic to get a better understanding of the dynamics and implications of the coming change

Development of a tidal model for central California

Sixth Conference on Coastal Atmospheric and Oceanic Prediction and ProcessesThe ICON model, a high-resolution, dataassimilating, model of the Monterey Bay area, was initially designed for studying mesoscale features such as eddies and upwelling filaments. Tidal forcing is now being implemented into this model to facilitate short-term particle-tracking studies, and to move towards a real-time operational forecast model

4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE: Title (Mix case letters) Impact of High Resolution Wind Fields on Coastal Ocean Models

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimitedREPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washingto

Skill Assessment of HF Radar-Derived Products for Lagrangian Simulations in the Bay of Biscay

Since January 2009, two long-range high-frequency (HF) radar systems have been collecting hourly high-spatial-resolution surface current data in the southeastern corner of the Bay of Biscay. The temporal resolution of the HF radar surface currents permits simulating drifter trajectories with the same time step as that of real drifters deployed in the region in 2009. The main goal of this work is to compare real drifter trajectories with trajectories computed from HF radar currents obtained using different methods, including forecast currents. Open-boundary modal analysis (OMA) is applied to the radar radial velocities and then a linear autoregressive model on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decomposition of an historical data series is used to forecast OMA currents. Additionally, the accuracy of the forecast method in terms of the spatial and temporal distribution of the Lagrangian distances between observations and forecasts is investigated for a 4-yr period (2009-12). The skills of the different HF radar products are evaluated within a 48-h window. The mean distances between real trajectories and their radar-derived counterparts range from 4 to 5 km for real-time and forecast currents after 12 hours of simulations. The forecast model improves persistence (i.e., the simulations obtained by using the last available OMA fields as a constant variable) after 6 hours of simulation and improves the estimation of trajectories up to 28% after 48 hours. The performance of the forecast is observed to be variable in space and time, related to the different ocean processes governing the local ocean circulation

Lagrangian Coherent Structures in a coastal upwelling environment

A unique spatiotemporal perspective of evolving surface currents off the northern California coast is provided with Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) determined from attracting Finite-Time Lyapunov Exponents (FTLEs). The FTLEs are calculated from hourly 2-D surface current velocities obtained with HF radars. Attracting FTLE field maxima can identify confluence and shear in flows which can be useful in mapping dynamics associated with fronts. FTLE and SST fields are compared during three time periods in 2009: late March, early September, and late September. During strong upwelling-favorable winds in late March the FTLE and SST fields were not strongly related indicating that frontal dynamics were not strongly influencing surface circulation. Exceptions to this occurred when FTLE ridges calculated from a shorter integration period captured the evolution of a cold water filament and when a FTLE ridge migrated offshore along with an upwelling front. During the two September cases an improved relationship between the FTLE and SST fields was found although occasionally they became shifted. The shifts occurred when the FTLE integration period spanned backwards in time through periods of relaxed and upwelling-favorable winds. This suggests that frontal dynamics captured by LCSs during relaxed winds can subsequently become advected after the onset of wind-forcing by a surface mixed layer decoupled from stably stratified water below the surface mixed layer. Additionally, the LCSs were found to be useful in mapping the origin and destination of surface trajectories, the confluence associated with a persistent eddy-like feature, and retention zones off coastal promontories. •Coastal circulation is mapped with HF radar-derived Lagrangian Coherent Structures.•Spatiotemporal evolution of upwelling jets, fronts, and filaments are investigated.•Eddy-like circulation, retention zones, and upwelling front speed are determined.•Mixed layer dynamics are important for identifying material boundaries associated with LCSs

Development, Implementation and Evaluation of a Data-assimilative Ocean Forecasting System off the Central California Coast

The development and implementation of a real-time ocean forecast system based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) off the coast of central California are described. The ROMS configuration consists of three nested modeling domains with increasing spatial resolutions: the US West coastal ocean at 15-km resolution, the central California coastal ocean at 5 km, and the Monterey Bay region at 1.5 km. All three nested models have 32 vertical sigma (or terrain-following) layers and were integrated in conjunction with a three-dimensional variational data assimilation algorithm (3DVAR) to produce snapshots of the ocean state every 6 h (the reanalysis) and 48-h forecasts once a day. This ROMS forecast system was operated in real time during the field experiment known as the Autonomous Ocean Sampling Network (AOSN-II) in August 2003. After the field experiment, a number of improvements were made to the ROMS forecast system: more data were added in the reanalysis with more careful quality control procedures, improvements were made in the data assimilation scheme, as well as model surface and side boundary conditions. The results from the ROMS reanalysis are presented here. The ROMS reanalysis is first compared with the assimilated data as a consistency check. An evaluation of the ROMS reanalysis against the independent measurements that are not assimilated into the model is then presented. This evaluation shows the mean differences in temperature and salinity between reanalysis and observations to be less than 1 °C and 0.2 psu (practical salinity unit), respectively, with root-mean-square (RMS) differences of less than 1.5 °C and 0.25 psu. Qualitative agreement is found between independent current measurements and the ROMS reanalysis. The agreement is particularly good for the vertically integrated current along the offshore glider tracks: the ROMS reanalysis can realistically reproduce the poleward California Undercurrent. Reasonably good agreement is found in the spatial patterns of the surface current as measured by high-frequency (HF) radars. Preliminary results concerning the ROMS forecast skill and predictability are also presented. Future plans to improve the ROMS forecast system with a particular focus on assimilation of HF radar current measurements are discussed