Semiparametric Bayesian Density Estimation with Disparate Data Sources: A Meta-Analysis of Global Childhood Undernutrition

Undernutrition, resulting in restricted growth, and quantified here using height-for-age z-scores, is an important contributor to childhood morbidity and mortality. Since all levels of mild, moderate and severe undernutrition are of clinical and public health importance, it is of interest to estimate the shape of the z-scores' distributions. We present a finite normal mixture model that uses data on 4.3 million children to make annual country-specific estimates of these distributions for under-5-year-old children in the world's 141 low- and middle-income countries between 1985 and 2011. We incorporate both individual-level data when available, as well as aggregated summary statistics from studies whose individual-level data could not be obtained. We place a hierarchical Bayesian probit stick-breaking model on the mixture weights. The model allows for nonlinear changes in time, and it borrows strength in time, in covariates, and within and across regional country clusters to make estimates where data are uncertain, sparse, or missing. This work addresses three important problems that often arise in the fields of public health surveillance and global health monitoring. First, data are always incomplete. Second, different data sources commonly use different reporting metrics. Last, distributions, and especially their tails, are often of substantive interest.Comment: 41 total pages, 6 figures, 1 tabl

Thermal oxidative degradation reactions of perfluoroalklethers

The objective of this contract was to investigate the mechanisms operative in thermal and thermal oxidative degradation of Fomblin Z and hexafluoropropene oxide derived fluids and the effect of alloys and additives upon these processes. The nature of arrangements responsible for the inherent thermal oxidative instability of the Fomblin Z fluids has not been established. It was determined that this behavior was not associated with hydrogen end-groups or peroxy linkages. The degradation rate of these fluids at elevated temperatures in oxidizing atmospheres was found to be dependent on the surface/volume ratio. Once a limiting ratio was reached, a steady rate appeared to be attained. Based on elemental analysis and oxygen consumption data, -CF2OCF2CF2O-, not -CF2CF2O-, is one of the major arrangements present. The action of the M-50 and Ti(4 Al, 4 Mn) alloys was found to be much more drastic in the case of Fomblin Z fluids than that observed for the hexalfuoropropane oxide derived materials. The effectiveness of antioxidation/anticorrosion additives, P-3 and phospha-s-triazine, in the presence of metal alloys was very limited at 316 C; at 288 C the additives arrested almost completely the fluid degradation. The phospha-s-triazine appeared to be at least twice as effective as the P-3 compound; it also protected the coupon better. The Ti(4 Al, 4 Mn) alloy degraded the fluid mainly by chain scission processes; this took place to a much lesser degree with M-50

Improved perfluoroalkylether fluid development

The feasibility of transforming a commercial linear perfluoroalkylether fluid into a material stable in the presence of metals and metal alloys in oxidizing atmospheres at 300 C without the loss of the desirable viscosity temperature characteristics was determined. The approach consisted of thermal oxidative treatment in the presence of catalyst to remove weak links, followed by transformation of the created functional groups into phospha-s-triazine linkages. It it found that the experimental material obtained in 66% yield from the commercial fluid exhibits, over an 8 hr period at 300 C in the presence of Ti(4Al, 4Mn) alloy, thermal oxidative stability better by a factor of 2.6x1000 based on volatiles evolved than the commercial product. The viscosity and molecular weight of the developed fluid are unchanged and are essentially identical with the commercial material. No metal corrosion occurs with the experimental fluid at 300 C

Does Home Owning Smooth the Variability of Future Housing Consumption?

We show that the hedging benefit of owning a home reduces the variability of housing consumption after a move. When a current home owner's house price covaries positively with housing costs in a future city, changes in the future cost of housing are offset by commensurate changes in wealth before the move. Using Census micro-data, we find that the cross-sectional variation in house values subsequent to a move is lower for home owners who moved between more highly covarying cities. Our preferred estimates imply that an increase in covariance of one standard deviation reduces the variance of subsequent housing consumption by about 11 percent. Households at the top end of the covariance distribution who are likely to have owned large homes before moving get the largest reductions, of up to 40 percent relative to households at the median.

Synthesis of perfluoroalkylene dianilines

The objective of this contrast was to optimize and scale-up the synthesis of 2,2-bis(4-aminophenyl)-hexafluoropropane and 1,3-bis(4-aminophenyl)hexafluoropropane, as well as to explore avenues to other perfluoroalkyl-bridged dianilines. Routes other than Friedel-Crafts reaction leading to 2,2-bis(4-aminophenyl)hexafluoropropane were investigated. The processes utilizing bisphenol-AF were all unsuccessful; reactions aimed at the production of 4-(hexafluoro-2-halo-isopropyl)aniline from the hydroxyl intermediate failed to yield the desired products. Tailoring the conditions of the Friedel-Crafts reaction of 4-(hexafluoro-2-hydroxyisopropyl)aniline, aniline, and aluminum chloride by using hydrochloride salts and selecting optimum reagent ratios, reaction times, and temperature resulted in approx. 20% yield of pure crystallized 2,2-bis(4-aminophenyl)hexafluoropropane in 0.2 mole reaction batches. Yields up to approx. 40% were realized in small, approx. 0.01 mole, batches. The synthesis of 1,3-bis(4-aminophenyl)hexafluoropropane starting with perfluoroglutarimidine was reinvestigated. The yield of the 4-step reaction sequence giving 1,3-bis(4-acetamidophenyl)hexafluoropropane was raised to 44%. The yield of the subsequent hydrolysis process was improved by a factor of approx. 2. Approaches to prepare other perfluoroalkyl-bridged dianilines were unsuccessful. Reactions reported to proceed readily with trifluoromethyl substituents failed when longer chain perfluoroalkyl groups were employed

The effects of metals and inhibitors on thermal oxidative degradation reactions of unbranched perfluoroalkylethers

Thermal oxidative degradation studies were performed on unbranched perfluoroalkylethers at 288 C in oxygen. Metals and alloys studied included Ti, Al, and Ti (4 Al, 4 Mn). The mechanism of degradation was by chain scission. Ti and Al promoted less degradation than Ti (4 Al, 4 Mn). The two inhibitors investigated (a perfluorophenyl phosphine and a phosphatriazine) reduced degradation rates by several orders of magnitude. Both inhibitors were effective for the same duration (75 to 100 hours). The phosphatriazine appeared to provide more surface protection

Children’s height and weight in rural and urban populations in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic analysis of population-representative data

Background Urban living aff ects children’s nutrition and growth, which are determinants of their survival, cognitive development, and lifelong health. Little is known about urban–rural diff erences in children’s height and weight, and how these diff erences have changed over time. We aimed to investigate trends in children’s height and weight in rural and urban settings in low-income and middle-income countries, and to assess changes in the urban–rural diff erentials in height and weight over time. Methods We used comprehensive population-based data and a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model to estimate trends in children’s height-for-age and weight-for-age Z scores by rural and urban place of residence, and changes in urban–rural diff erentials in height and weight Z scores, for 141 low-income and middle-income countries between 1985 and 2011. We also estimated the contribution of changes in rural and urban height and weight, and that of urbanisation, to the regional trends in these outcomes. Findings Urban children are taller and heavier than their rural counterparts in almost all low-income and middleincome countries. The urban–rural diff erential is largest in Andean and central Latin America (eg, Peru, Honduras, Bolivia, and Guatemala); in some African countries such as Niger, Burundi, and Burkina Faso; and in Vietnam and China. It is smallest in southern and tropical Latin America (eg, Chile and Brazil). Urban children in China, Chile, and Jamaica are the tallest in low-income and middle-income countries, and children in rural areas of Burundi, Guatemala, and Niger the shortest, with the tallest and shortest more than 10 cm apart at age 5 years. The heaviest children live in cities in Georgia, Chile, and China, and the most underweight in rural areas of Timor-Leste, India, Niger, and Bangladesh. Between 1985 and 2011, the urban advantage in height fell in southern and tropical Latin America and south Asia, but changed little or not at all in most other regions. The urban–rural weight diff erential also decreased in southern and tropical Latin America, but increased in east and southeast Asia and worldwide, because weight gain of urban children outpaced that of rural children.Interpretation Further improvement of child nutrition will require improved access to a stable and aff ordable food supply and health care for both rural and urban children, and closing of the the urban–rural gap in nutritional status

Modeling Spatial Patterns of Traffic-Related Air Pollutants in Complex Urban Terrain

Background: The relationship between traffic emissions and mobile-source air pollutant concentrations is highly variable over space and time and therefore difficult to model accurately, especially in urban settings with complex terrain. Regression-based approaches using continuous real-time mobile measurements may be able to characterize spatiotemporal variability in traffic-related pollutant concentrations but require methods to incorporate temporally varying meteorology and source strength in a physically interpretable fashion. Objective: We developed a statistical model to assess the joint impact of both meteorology and traffic on measured concentrations of mobile-source air pollutants over space and time. Methods: In this study, traffic-related air pollutants were continuously measured in the Williamsburg neighborhood of Brooklyn, New York (USA), which is affected by traffic on a large bridge and major highway. One-minute average concentrations of ultrafine particulate matter (UFP), fine particulate matter [$\leq 2.5 \mu m$ in aerodynamic diameter $(PM_{2.5})$], and particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were measured using a mobile-monitoring protocol. Regression modeling approaches to quantify the influence of meteorology, traffic volume, and proximity to major roadways on pollutant concentrations were used. These models incorporated techniques to capture spatial variability, long- and short-term temporal trends, and multiple sources. Results: We observed spatial heterogeneity of both UFP and $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations. A variety of statistical methods consistently found a 15–20% decrease in UFP concentrations within the first 100 m from each of the two major roadways. For $PM_{2.5}$, temporal variability dominated spatial variability, but we observed a consistent linear decrease in concentrations from the roadways. Conclusions: The combination of mobile monitoring and regression analysis was able to quantify local source contributions relative to background while accounting for physically interpretable parameters. Our results provide insight into urban exposure gradients