A Gathering of Storms: The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Balance of Payments of Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs)

The aim of this article is to track the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis on EMDEs focusing on the performance of their Balance of Payments (BOPs). EMDEs are facing simultaneous hits in their BOPs as they try to cope with the domestic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Those impacts call for a rethinking of some aspects of the Keynesian Approach to BOPs while strengthening the view of international financial markets as hierarchical and volatile institutions. The external impacts can be summarized in four channels: (i) The unprecedented capital flight which has led to depreciation, scarcity of hard currency, debt problems and rising spreads in domestic currency; (ii) the fall in commodity prices, a major component of the export basket in most EMDEs; (iii) the contraction in global aggregate demand and supply, which together with lower commodity prices lead to reduced export earnings; and (iv) the decrease in remittances, a major supply of hard currency in several EMDEs and Low-Income Countries (LICs). The concomitant impact of these “storms” has limited the capabilities and efficiency of governments to adopt fiscal and monetary stimulus packages and to respond to the sanitary requirements. Government reactions are also clogged by the large weight of the informal sector in EMDEs.Fil: Bortz, Pablo Gabriel. Universidad Nacional de San Martín. Instituto de Altos Estudios Sociales; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Michelena, Leandro Gabriel Ceferino. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; ArgentinaFil: Toledo, Fernando Cesar. Universidad Nacional de La Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

How Group Size Affects Vigilance Dynamics and Time Allocation Patterns: The Key Role of Imitation and Tempo

In the context of social foraging, predator detection has been the subject of numerous studies, which acknowledge the adaptive response of the individual to the trade-off between feeding and vigilance. Typically, animals gain energy by increasing their feeding time and decreasing their vigilance effort with increasing group size, without increasing their risk of predation (‘group size effect’). Research on the biological utility of vigilance has prevailed over considerations of the mechanistic rules that link individual decisions to group behavior. With sheep as a model species, we identified how the behaviors of conspecifics affect the individual decisions to switch activity. We highlight a simple mechanism whereby the group size effect on collective vigilance dynamics is shaped by two key features: the magnitude of social amplification and intrinsic differences between foraging and scanning bout durations. Our results highlight a positive correlation between the duration of scanning and foraging bouts at the level of the group. This finding reveals the existence of groups with high and low rates of transition between activies, suggesting individual variations in the transition rate, or ‘tempo’. We present a mathematical model based on behavioral rules derived from experiments. Our theoretical predictions show that the system is robust in respect to variations in the propensity to imitate scanning and foraging, yet flexible in respect to differences in the duration of activity bouts. The model shows how individual decisions contribute to collective behavior patterns and how the group, in turn, facilitates individual-level adaptive responses

A histologic scoring system for prognosis of patients with Alcoholic hepatitis

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is no histologic classification system to determine prognoses of patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH). We identified histologic features associated with disease severity and created a histologic scoring system to predict short-term (90-day) mortality. METHODS: We analyzed data from 121 patients admitted to the Liver Unit (Hospital Clinic, Barcelona, Spain) from January 2000 to January 2008 with features of AH and developed a histologic scoring system to determine the risk of death using logistic regression. The system was tested and updated in a test set of 96 patients from 5 academic centers in the United States and Europe, and a semiquantitative scoring system called the Alcoholic Hepatitis Histologic Score (AHHS) was developed. The system was validated in an independent set of 109 patients. Interobserver agreement was evaluated by weighted κ statistical analysis. RESULTS: The degree of fibrosis, degree of neutrophil infiltration, type of bilirubinostasis, and presence of megamitochondria were independently associated with 90-day mortality. We used these 4 parameters to develop the AHHS to identify patients with a low (0-3 points), moderate (4-5 points), or high (6-9 points) risk of death within 90 days (3%, 19%, and 51%, respectively; P < .0001). The AHHS estimated 90-day mortality in the training and test sets with an area under the receiver operating characteristic value of 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.83). Interrater agreement values were 0.65 for fibrosis, 0.86 for bilirubinostasis, 0.60 for neutrophil infiltration, and 0.46 for megamitochondria. Interestingly, the type of bilirubinostasis predicted the development of bacterial infections. CONCLUSIONS: We identified histologic features associated with the severity of AH and developed a patient classification system that might be used in clinical decision making

A Histologic Scoring System for Prognosis of Patients With Alcoholic Hepatitis

There is no histologic classification system to determine prognoses of patients with alcoholic hepatitis (AH). We identified histologic features associated with disease severity and created a histologic scoring system to predict short-term (90 day) mortality

Organisation spatio-temporelle des groupes chez les ongulés (une étude expérimentale de la ségrégation des sexes chez le mouton mérinos (ovis aries))

TOULOUSE3-BU Sciences (315552104) / SudocSudocFranceF

Shocks exógenos y endeudamiento externo. Impacto sobre el crecimiento y la distribución en economías emergentes y en desarrollo

Antecedentes: Diversos modelos kaleckianos han planteado la interacción entre crecimiento económico y distribución funcional del ingreso en economías abiertas. Esta clase de modelos suele omitir los efectos ejercidos por el nivel de endeudamiento externo público y privado sobre economías emergentes y en desarrollo, como las de América Latina.Metodología: Se presenta un modelo kaleckiano ampliado que incorpora el endeudamiento externo y permite identificar los canales de transmisión operantes desde factores exógenos que fomentan ingresos y salidas de capitales hacia variables macroeconómicas clave: tipo de cambio nominal, distribución funcional del ingreso, tasa de inflación y crecimiento económico. El modelo resulta relevante para evaluar el contexto macroeconómico de países de nuestra región y de otras economías emergentes y en desarrollo.Resultados: La detección de regímenes de demanda tradicionales en modelos kaleckianos se extiende y se complejiza en el presente trabajo al dar cuenta de los efectos ejercidos por el endeudamiento externo sobre la distribución funcional del ingreso mediante regímenes impulsados por el tipo de cambio y regímenes tirados por los servicios de la deuda externa. Los impuestos al capital y al trabajo pueden utilizarse como un instrumento para atenuar el conflicto distributivo inherente a la fijación de precios y salarios, en presencia de economías que dependen del financiamiento externo y se hallan sujetas a fluctuaciones cambiarias significativas.Conclusiones: Una economía abierta a los influjos de capital puede padecer cambios severos en la participación de los trabajadores en el ingreso y en la actividad económica. A corto plazo, las presiones a la baja sobre el tipo de cambio nominal reducen la inflación y el costo del endeudamiento externo canalizado hacia las firmas, lo que suele compensarse por el peso creciente del endeudamiento externo y los servicios de la deuda, lo cual aumenta la desigualdad y propicia el estancamiento de la demanda agregada. Nuestra propuesta consiste en la implementación de políticas de ingreso de alcance tributario para aislar el proceso de negociación salarial y de fijación de precios de los cambios en el endeudamiento externo y el tipo de cambio nominal

Exogenous shocks and external indebtedness. Effects on growth and distribution in emerging and developing economies

Antecedentes: diversos modelos kaleckianos han planteado la interaccion entre crecimiento economico y distribucion funcional del ingreso en economias abiertas. Esta clase de modelos suele omitir los efectos ejercidos por el nivel de endeudamiento externo publico y privado sobre economias emergentes y en desarrollo, como las de America Latina. Metodologia: se presenta un modelo kaleckiano ampliado que incorpora el endeudamiento externo y permite identificar los canales de transmision operantes desde factores exogenos que fomentan ingresos y salidas de capitales hacia variables macroeconomicas clave: tipo de cambio nominal, distribucion funcional del ingreso, tasa de inflacion y crecimiento economico. El modelo resulta relevante para evaluar el contexto macroeconomico de paises de nuestra region y de otras economias emergentes y en desarrollo. Resultados: la deteccion de regimenes de demanda tradicionales en modelos kaleckianos se extiende y se complejiza en el presente trabajo al dar cuenta de los efectos ejercidos por el endeudamiento externo sobre la distribucion funcional del ingreso mediante regimenes impulsados por el tipo de cambio y regimenes tirados por los servicios de la deuda externa. Los impuestos al capital y al trabajo pueden utilizarse como un instrumento para atenuar el conflicto distributivo inherente a la fijacion de precios y salarios, en presencia de economias que dependen del financiamiento externo y se hallan sujetas a fluctuaciones cambiarias significativas. Conclusiones: una economia abierta a los influjos de capital puede padecer cambios severos en la participacion de los trabajadores en el ingreso y en la actividad economica. A corto plazo, las presiones a la baja sobre el tipo de cambio nominal reducen la inflacion y el costo del endeudamiento externo canalizado hacia las firmas, lo que suele compensarse por el peso creciente del endeudamiento externo y los servicios de la deuda, lo cual aumenta la desigualdad y propicia el estancamiento de la demanda agregada. Nuestra propuesta consiste en la implementacion de politicas de ingreso de alcance tributario para aislar el proceso de negociacion salarial y de fijacion de precios de los cambios en el endeudamiento externo y el tipo de cambio nominal.Background: Several Kaleckian models have tackled the interaction between economic growth and functional income distribution in open economies. However, this type of models usually omits the effects of external public and private indebtedness on developing economies such as Latin America. Methodology: We develop an extended Kaleckian model that includes external indebtedness, which allows us to identify the transmission channels from exogenous factors that influence capital flows in key macroeconomic variables: Nominal exchange rates, functional income distribution, inflation rate, and economic growth. The model is relevant for the analysis of the macroeconomic context of Latin America and other developing and emerging economies. Results: This work extends the traditional demand regimes of Kaleckian models, by taking into account the effects of external indebtedness on functional income distribution via regimes led by the exchange rate and regimes led by external debt services. Taxes on capital and labor can be used as an instrument to reduce distributive conflict inherent in price and wage setting in economies dependent on external financing, and subject to significant exchange rate fluctuations. Conclusions: An economy open to capital flows can experience severe changes in wage income shares and economic activity. In the short-term, appreciating pressures on the nominal exchange rate reduces inflation and the cost of external indebtedness for firms, which is later compensated by the growing weight of external debt and debt servicing, fostering inequality and leading to aggregate demand stagnation. We propose the implementation of tax-based income policies to isolate the process of price and wage setting from changes in external indebtedness and the nominal exchange rate.Facultad de Ciencias Económica

Personality and collective decision-making in foraging herbivores

The mechanisms by which group-living animals collectively exploit resources, and the role of individuals in group decisions, are central issues for understanding animal distribution patterns. We investigated the extent to which boldness and shyness affect the distribution of social herbivores across vegetation patches, using sheep as a model species. Using an experimental and a theoretical approach, we show that collective choices emerge through the nonlinear dynamics of interactions between individuals, at both short and long distances. Within a range of parameter values derived from the observation of homogeneous groups of each behavioural type, we propose a simple mechanism whereby the same interaction rules can result in different patterns of distribution across patches for bold and shy individuals. We present a mathematical model based on behavioural rules derived from experiments, in which crowding and conspecific attraction affect the probability of entering or leaving patches. Variation in the strength of social attraction is sufficient to account for differences in spatial distribution across patches. The model predicts that resource fragmentation more strongly affects the distribution patterns of shy groups, and suggests that the presence of both bold and shy individuals within groups would result in more flexible behaviour at the population level

Sexual segregation in ungulates: from individual mechanisms to collective patterns

OVERVIEW Sexual segregation is an integral aspect of the socio-spatial organization of ungulate populations. Very often, the social, spatial and ecological components have been confounded (Bon, 1992) and we have argued that it is necessary to define and distinguish between each of them (Bon & Campan, 1996; see also Chapter 2 by Larissa Conradt). In the present chapter, we point out that sexual segregation is a complex phenomenon that can be produced by distinct mechanisms. One of the main issues is to know whether segregation by habitats necessarily derives from sexual difference in habitat choice, or can derive from alternative causes, i.e. spatial and social mechanisms (see also Chapter 2). Habitat segregation implies heterogeneous habitat (Miquelle et al. 1992), which we assume not to be obligatory for social and spatial segregation to occur. We distinguish hypothetical mechanisms relevant only in a heterogeneous environment from those relevant in both heterogeneous and homogeneous environments. We focus on behavioural mechanisms that may generate social and spatial segregation/aggregation, and the problem of the scale at which segregation may occur. Finally, we suggest that segregation cannot only be considered as a result of individuals behaving independently of each another, but also as a result of interactions between individuals on a larger (population) scale. Habitat versus social segregation Miquelle et al. (1992) noted that differences in habitat selection often lead to sexual segregation and resource partitioning between the sexes.SCOPUS: ch.binfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe