The magical realism of body counts: How media credulity and flawed statistics sustain a controversial policy

The drone war in Pakistan poses humanitarian, legal, ethical and political challenges. The tactic is controversial and has been condemned by the United Nations’ special rapporteur on extrajudicial killings. Yet, polls have shown high support for the tactic in the United States (and to a lesser degree in the United Kingdom). Much of this has to do with the media reporting on the war, which consistently underestimates its human toll. Dubious statistics have sustained the image of a surgical war with little collateral damage. But as this article shows, there are reasons to doubt these numbers. The article argues that two interrelated factors have contributed to a flawed accounting of the war’s human toll: (1) rituals of objectivity that privilege ‘official sources’ and (2) fetishizing of statistics as hard facts without regard for the underlying data. The coverage has also been distorted by news values that downplay or ignore deaths in distant places unless they cross an inordinately high threshold

Implementation of a chemical background method for atmospheric OH measurements by laser-induced fluorescence: characterisation and observations from the UK and China

Hydroxyl (OH) and hydroperoxy (HO2) radicals are central to the understanding of atmospheric chemistry. Owing to their short lifetimes, these species are frequently used to test the accuracy of model predictions and their underlying chemical mechanisms. In forested environments, laser-induced fluorescence–fluorescence assay by gas expansion (LIF–FAGE) measurements of OH have often shown substantial disagreement with model predictions, suggesting the presence of unknown OH sources in such environments. However, it is also possible that the measurements have been affected by instrumental artefacts, due to the presence of interfering species that cannot be discriminated using the traditional method of obtaining background signals via modulation of the laser excitation wavelength (“OHwave”). The interference hypothesis can be tested by using an alternative method to determine the OH background signal, via the addition of a chemical scavenger prior to sampling of ambient air (“OHchem”). In this work, the Leeds FAGE instrument was modified to include such a system to facilitate measurements of OHchem, in which propane was used to selectively remove OH from ambient air using an inlet pre-injector (IPI). The IPI system was characterised in detail, and it was found that the system did not reduce the instrument sensitivity towards OH ( 99 %) without the removal of OH formed inside the fluorescence cell (< 5 %). Tests of the photolytic interference from ozone in the presence of water vapour revealed a small but potentially significant interference, equivalent to an OH concentration of ∼4×105 molec. cm−3 under typical atmospheric conditions of [O3] =50 ppbv and [H2O] =1 %. Laboratory experiments to investigate potential interferences from products of isoprene ozonolysis did result in interference signals, but these were negligible when extrapolated down to ambient ozone and isoprene levels. The interference from NO3 radicals was also tested but was found to be insignificant in our system. The Leeds IPI module was deployed during three separate field intensives that took place in summer at a coastal site in the UK and both in summer and winter in the megacity of Beijing, China, allowing for investigations of ambient OH interferences under a wide range of chemical and meteorological conditions. Comparisons of ambient OHchem measurements to the traditional OHwave method showed excellent agreement, with OHwave vs OHchem slopes of 1.05–1.16 and identical behaviour on a diel basis, consistent with laboratory interference tests. The difference between OHwave and OHchem (“OHint”) was found to scale non-linearly with OHchem, resulting in an upper limit interference of (5.0±1.4) ×106 molec. cm−3 at the very highest OHchem concentrations measured (23×106 molec. cm−3), accounting for ∼14 %–21 % of the total OHwave signal

Cirsium species show disparity in patterns of genetic variation at their range-edge, despite similar patterns of reproduction and isolation

Genetic variation was assessed across the UK geographical range of Cirsium acaule and Cirsium heterophyllum. A decline in genetic diversity and increase in population divergence approaching the range edge of these species was predicted based on parallel declines in population density and seed production reported seperately. Patterns were compared with UK populations of the widespread Cirsium arvense.Populations were sampled along a latitudinal transect in the UK and genetic variation assessed using microsatellite markers. Cirsium acaule shows strong isolation by distance, a significant decline in diversity and an increase in divergence among range-edge populations. Geographical structure is also evident in C. arvense, whereas no such patterns are seen in C.heterophyllum. There is a major disparity between patterns of genetic variation in C. acaule and C. heterophyllum despite very similar patterns in seed production and population isolation in these species. This suggests it may be misleading to make assumptions about the geographical structure of genetic variation within species based solely on the present-day reproduction and distribution of populations

Cross-basin differences in the nutrient assimilation characteristics of induced phytoplankton blooms in the subtropical Pacific waters.

To better understand the nutrient assimilation characteristics of subtropical phytoplankton, deep water addition incubation experiments were carried out on surface waters collected at seven stations across the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. These deep water additions induced phytoplankton blooms with nutrient drawdown at all stations. The drawdown ratios of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) to phosphate (PO4) varied from 14.1 to 30.7 at the PO4-replete stations in the central North Pacific (CNP) and eastern South Pacific (ESP). These ratios were similar to the range represented by the canonical Redfield ratio (16) through to typical particulate N:P ratios in the surface subtropical ocean (28). In contrast, lower DIN:PO4 drawdown ratios (7.7-13.3) were observed in induced blooms at the PO4-depleted stations in the western North Pacific (WNP). The DIN:PO4 drawdown ratios in the PO4-replete ESP were associated with eukaryote-dominated blooms, while those in PO4-depleted WNP were associated with eukaryotic and cyanobacterial blooms. The surplus PO4 assimilation, relative to DIN, by phytoplankton in the WNP was not expected based on their typical cellular N:P ratio, and was likely due to the high PO4 uptake capability as induced by low PO4-adapted phytoplankton. The low and high P* (=PO4-DIN/16) regimes geographically corresponded to the low and high DIN:PO4 drawdown ratios in the WNP and the CNP or ESP, respectively. The basin-wide P* distribution in the oligotrophic Pacific surface waters showed a clear regional trend from low in the WNP (100 nM). These results suggest that the subtropical phytoplankton blooms as observed in our experiments could be an important factor controlling P* as well as the commonly recognized dinitrogen fixation and denitrification characteristics

Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies.

One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an exposure and disease either are restricted to cohorts with full confounder information, or use all cohorts but do not fully adjust for confounding. We propose using a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model to use information from all available cohorts while still adjusting for all the potential confounders. Our method uses both the fully adjusted and the partially adjusted estimated effects in the cohorts with full confounder information, together with an estimate of their within-cohort correlation. The method is applied to estimate the association between fibrinogen level and coronary heart disease incidence using data from 154,012 participants in 31 cohort

Temperature and oxygen dependent metabolite utilization by Salmonella enterica Serovars Derby and Mbandaka

Salmonella enterica is a zoonotic pathogen of clinical and veterinary significance, with over 2500 serovars. In previous work we compared two serovars displaying host associations inferred from isolation statistics. Here, to validate genome sequence data and to expand on the role of environmental metabolite constitution in host range determination we use a phenotypic microarray approach to assess the ability of these serovars to metabolise ~500 substrates at 25°C with oxygen (aerobic conditions) to represent the ex vivo environment and at 37°C with and without oxygen (aerobic/anaerobic conditions) to represent the in vivo environment. A total of 26 substrates elicited a significant difference in the rate of metabolism of which only one, D-galactonic acid-g-lactone, could be explained by the presence (S. Mbandaka) or the absence (S. Derby) of metabolic genes. We find that S. Mbandaka respires more efficiently at ambient temperatures and under aerobic conditions on 18 substrates including: glucosominic acid, saccharic acid, trehalose, fumaric acid, maltotriose, N-acetyl-D-glucosamine, N-acetyl-beta-D-mannosamine, fucose, L-serine and dihydroxy-acetone; whereas S. Derby is more metabolically competent anaerobically at 37°C for dipeptides, glutamine-glutamine, alanine-lysine, asparagine-glutamine and nitrogen sources glycine and nitrite. We conclude that the specific phenotype cannot be reliably predicted from the presence of metabolic genes directly relating to the metabolic pathways under study

Psychometric evaluation of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale in a large community sample of adolescents in Hong Kong

Purpose: The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) is widely used in adult populations; however, its usefulness with adolescents has been explored less. This study sought to evaluate the reliability, validity, and factor structure of the Chinese version of HADS in a community sample of adolescents residing in Hong Kong. Methods: A prospective cohort of 5,857 students recruited from 17 secondary schools completed the HADS. Internal consistency and concurrent validity were examined. Confirmatory factor analysis was applied to test the relative fits of six factor structures of the HADS. The best fitting model was further cross-validated by male, female, splithalf samples, and age subgroups. Results: The HADS possessed adequate internal consistency, especially for the anxiety subscale. Significant concurrent intercorrelations with self-reported suicidal thoughts and the Youth Self Report Anxious/Depressed subscale were discovered and found to be stronger for females. The cross-validation supported a two-factor model, where anxiety item 7, "I can sit at ease and feel relaxed", was placed in the depression subscale. Conclusions: The HADS showed satisfactory psychometric properties as a screening instrument in assessing anxious and depressive states as two correlated but distinct factors in adolescents. Study implications and recommendations for future research were discussed.published_or_final_versionSpringer Open Choice, 21 Feb 201

Moving forward during major goal blockage: situational goal adjustment in women facing infertility

Individuals confronting chronic medical conditions often face profound challenges to cherished life goals. The primary aim of this study was to examine the associations of goal adjustment with psychological adjustment in the context of infertility. At study entry (T1; n = 97) and 6 months later (T2; n = 47), women in fertility treatment completed measures of goal blockage, goal adjustment ability, and psychological adjustment. At T1, greater perceived and actual goal blockage were related to negative psychological adjustment. Ability to disengage from the goal of biological parenthood was associated with less infertility-specific thought intrusion, whereas engagement with other goals was related to fewer depressive symptoms and greater positive states of mind. Greater general goal engagement was protective against the negative relationships between low goal disengagement and the dependent variables. Promoting letting go of the unattainable and investing in the possible may be a useful intervention to foster well-being among individuals experiencing profound goal blockage

Smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and family history and the risks of acute myocardial infarction and unstable angina pectoris: a prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Few studies investigated the association between smoking, alcohol consumption, or physical activity and the risk of unstable angina pectoris (UAP), while the strength of these associations may differ compared to other coronary diseases such as acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Therefore, we investigated whether the associations of these lifestyle factors with UAP differed from those with AMI. Additionally, we investigated whether these effects differed between subjects with and without a family history of myocardial infarction (MI).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The CAREMA study consists of 21,148 persons, aged 20-59 years at baseline and randomly sampled from the Maastricht region in 1987-1997. At baseline, all participants completed a self-administered questionnaire. After follow-up of maximally 16.9 years, 420 AMI and 274 UAP incident cases were registered. Incidence rate ratios (RRs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>For both diseases, smoking increased the risk while alcohol consumption was associated with a protective effect. Associations with both risk factors were stronger for AMI than UAP, although this difference was only statistically significant for smoking. In men, an inverse association was found with physical activity during leisure time which seemed to be stronger for the risk of UAP than of AMI. On the contrary, physical activity during leisure time was associated with an increased risk of both AMI and UAP in women which seemed to be weaker for UAP than for AMI. Except for occupational physical activity in women, no significant interactions on a multiplicative scale were found between the lifestyle factors and family history of MI. Nevertheless, the highest risks were found in subjects with both a positive family history and the most unfavorable level of the lifestyle factors.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The strength of the associations with the lifestyle factors did not differ between AMI and UAP, except for smoking. Furthermore, the effects of the lifestyle factors on the risk of both coronary diseases were similar for subjects with and without a positive family history.</p