Heatwave–blocking relation change likely dominates over decrease in blocking frequency under global warming

This is the final version. Available on open access from Nature Research via the DOI in this recordData availability; CMIP6 model data are available from https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through its Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP6. We thank the climate modelling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the data and providing access, and the multiple funding agencies that support CMIP6 and ESGF.Code availability: Computer code to repeat the results is available on Zenodo. The D13 blocking index code is provided by Etienne Dunn-Sigouin. This study uses xarray and scikit-learn.Extra-tropical continental summer heatwaves often occur under persistent anticyclones or blocking. Here we partition heatwave changes into contributions from blocking changes, heatwave–blocking relation change and mean temperature increase, under global warming in climate models. We employ an optimized blocking index that best correlates with heatwaves (Pearson correlation of 0.7) and find heatwave-driving blocking decreases but the change in heatwave–blocking relation likely dominates. Over Europe, with a historical heatwave frequency of 2.5%, less blocking will cause 0.6% fewer heatwaves, steepened heatwave–blocking relation will cause 1.4% more heatwaves, and the mean temperature increase will cause 60% more heatwaves. Over Greenland, flattened heatwave–blocking relation will dominate over the insignificant decrease in blocking. The future increase in heatwave frequency is not caused by changes in blocking frequency, but by factors such as thermodynamics, that enhance the capacity of blocking to drive heatwaves.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

A systematic review of the effectiveness of docetaxel and mitoxantrone for the treatment of metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer

A systematic review was performed to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of docetaxel in combination with prednisolone (docetaxel is licensed in the UK for use in combination with prednisone or prednisolone for the treatment of patients with metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer. Prednisone is not used in the UK, but it is reasonable to use docetaxel plus prednisone data in this review of docetaxel plus prednisolone) for the treatment of metastatic hormone-refractory prostate cancer. A scoping search identified a trial of docetaxel plus prednisone vs mitoxantrone plus prednisone, but did not identify any trials comparing docetaxel plus prednisolone/prednisone with any other treatments. Therefore, we considered additional indirect evidence that would enable a comparison of docetaxel plus prednisolone/prednisone with other chemotherapy regimens and active supportive care. Systematic searching (upto April 2005) identified seven randomised controlled trials. One large well-conducted trial assessed docetaxel plus prednisone vs mitoxantrone plus prednisone; this showed statistically significant improvements with 3-weekly docetaxel in terms of overall survival, quality of life, pain response and PSA decline. Two other chemotherapy regimens that included docetaxel with estramustine also showed improved outcomes in comparison with mitoxantrone plus prednisone. Three trials that compared mitoxantrone plus corticosteroids with corticosteroids alone were identified and their results for overall survival combined, which showed very little difference between the two groups. The addition of clodronate to mitoxantrone plus prednisone showed no significant differences in comparison with mitoxantrone plus prednisone alone. The evidence suggests that chemotherapy regimens containing 3-weekly docetaxel are superior to mitoxantrone or corticosteroids alone

NLL+NNLO predictions for jet-veto efficiencies in Higgs-boson and Drell-Yan production

Using the technology of the CAESAR approach to resummation, we examine the jet-veto efficiency in Higgs-boson and Drell-Yan production at hadron colliders and show that at next-to-leading logarithmic (NLL) accuracy the resummation reduces to just a Sudakov form factor. Matching with NNLO calculations results in stable predictions for the case of Drell-Yan production, but reveals substantial uncertainties in gluon-fusion Higgs production, connected in part with the poor behaviour of the perturbative series for the total cross section. We compare our results to those from POWHEG with and without reweighting by HqT, as used experimentally, and observe acceptable agreement. In an appendix we derive the part of the NNLL resummation corrections associated with the radius dependence of the jet algorithm.Comment: 30 pages, 8 figures; v2 as published in JHE

Does the Order of Invasive Species Removal Matter? The Case of the Eagle and the Pig

Invasive species are recognized as a primary driver of native species endangerment and their removal is often a key component of a conservation strategy. Removing invasive species is not always a straightforward task, however, especially when they interact with other species in complex ways to negatively influence native species. Because unintended consequences may arise if all invasive species cannot be removed simultaneously, the order of their removal is of paramount importance to ecological restoration. In the mid-1990s, three subspecies of the island fox Urocyon littoralis were driven to near extinction on the northern California Channel Islands owing to heightened predation by golden eagles Aquila chrysaetos. Eagles were lured to the islands by an abundant supply of feral pigs Sus scrofa and through the process of apparent competition pigs indirectly facilitated the decline in foxes. As a consequence, both pigs and eagles had to be removed to recover the critically endangered fox. Complete removal of pigs was problematic: removing pigs first could force eagles to concentrate on the remaining foxes, increasing their probability of extinction. Removing eagles first was difficult: eagles are not easily captured and lethal removal was politically distasteful.Using prey remains collected from eagle nests both before and after the eradication of pigs, we show that one pair of eagles that eluded capture did indeed focus more on foxes. These results support the premise that if the threat of eagle predation had not been mitigated prior to pig removal, fox extinction would have been a more likely outcome.If complete eradication of all interacting invasive species is not possible, the order in which they are removed requires careful consideration. If overlooked, unexpected consequences may result that could impede restoration

The generalised anxiety stigma scale (GASS): psychometric properties in a community sample

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although there is substantial concern about negative attitudes to mental illness, little is known about the stigma associated with Generalised Anxiety Disorder (GAD) or its measurement. The aim of this study was to develop a multi-item measure of Generalised Anxiety Disorder stigma (the GASS).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Stigma items were developed from a thematic analysis of web-based text about the stigma associated with GAD. Six hundred and seventeen members of the public completed a survey comprising the resulting 20 stigma items and measures designed to evaluate construct validity. Follow-up data were collected for a subset of the participants (n = 212).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The factor structure comprised two components: Personal Stigma (views about Generalised Anxiety Disorder); and Perceived Stigma (views about the beliefs of most others in the community). There was evidence of good construct validity and reliability for each of the Generalised Anxiety Stigma Scale (GASS) subscales.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The GASS is a promising brief measure of the stigma associated with Generalised Anxiety Disorder.</p

Implications of a High-Mass Diphoton Resonance for Heavy Quark Searches

Heavy vector-like quarks coupled to a scalar $S$ will induce a coupling of this scalar to gluons and possibly (if electrically charged) photons. The decay of the heavy quark into $Sq$, with $q$ being a Standard Model quark, provides, if kinematically allowed, new channels for heavy quark searches. Inspired by naturalness considerations, we consider the case of a vector-like partner of the top quark. For illustration, we show that a singlet partner can be searched for at the 13$\,$TeV LHC through its decay into a scalar resonance in the $2\gamma+\ell + X$ final states, especially if the diphoton branching ratio of the scalar $S$ is further enhanced by the contribution of non coloured particles. We then show that conventional heavy quark searches are also sensitive to this new decay mode, when $S$ decays hadronically, by slightly tightening the current selection cuts. Finally, we comment about the possibility of disentangling, by scrutinising appropriate kinematic distributions, heavy quark decays to $St$ from other standard decay modes.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures and 1 table; v3: typos fixed. Matches published versio

Analytic Results for Higgs Production in Bottom Fusion

We evaluate analytically the cross section for Higgs production plus one jet through bottom quark fusion. By considering the small pT limit we derive expressions for the resummation coefficients governing the structure of large logarithms, and compare these expressions with those available in the literature.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figure

The Relationship Between HR Practices and Firm Performance: Examining Causal Order

Significant research attention has been devoted to examining the relationship between HR practices and firm performance, and the research support has assumed HR as the causal variable. Using data from 45 business units (with 62 data points), this study examines how measures of HR practices correlate with past, concurrent, and future operational performance measures. The results indicate that correlations with performance measures at all three times are both high and invariant, and that controlling for past or concurrent performance virtually eliminates the correlation of HR with future performance. Implications are discussed

A cluster randomized controlled trial of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Intermediate Care Clinics for Diabetes (ICCD) : study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background World-wide healthcare systems are faced with an epidemic of type 2 diabetes. In the United Kingdom, clinical care is primarily provided by general practitioners (GPs) rather than hospital specialists. Intermediate care clinics for diabetes (ICCD) potentially provide a model for supporting GPs in their care of people with poorly controlled type 2 diabetes and in their management of cardiovascular risk factors. This study aims to (1) compare patients with type 2 diabetes registered with practices that have access to an ICCD service with those that have access only to usual hospital care; (2) assess the cost-effectiveness of the intervention; and (3) explore the views and experiences of patients, health professionals and other stakeholders. Methods/Design This two-arm cluster randomized controlled trial (with integral economic evaluation and qualitative study) is set in general practices in three UK Primary Care Trusts. Practices are randomized to one of two groups with patients referred to either an ICCD (intervention) or to hospital care (control). Intervention group: GP practices in the intervention arm have the opportunity to refer patients to an ICCD - a multidisciplinary team led by a specialist nurse and a diabetologist. Patients are reviewed and managed in the ICCD for a short period with a goal of improving diabetes and cardiovascular risk factor control and are then referred back to practice. or Control group: Standard GP care, with referral to secondary care as required, but no access to ICCD. Participants are adults aged 18 years or older who have type 2 diabetes that is difficult for their GPs to control. The primary outcome is the proportion of participants reaching three risk factor targets: HbA1c (≤7.0%); blood pressure (<140/80); and cholesterol (<4 mmol/l), at the end of the 18-month intervention period. The main secondary outcomes are the proportion of participants reaching individual risk factor targets and the overall 10-year risks for coronary heart disease(CHD) and stroke assessed by the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine. Other secondary outcomes include body mass index and waist circumference, use of medication, reported smoking, emotional adjustment, patient satisfaction and views on continuity, costs and health related quality of life. We aimed to randomize 50 practices and recruit 2,555 patients