Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam

While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods-wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling-we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens

Phylodynamics of foot-and-mouth disease virus O/PanAsia in Vietnam 2010-2014

© 2017 The Author(s). Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is endemic in Vietnam, a country that plays an important role in livestock trade within Southeast Asia. The large populations of FMDV-susceptible species in Vietnam are important components of food production and of the national livelihood. In this study, we investigated the phylogeny of FMDV O/PanAsia in Vietnam, reconstructing the virus' ancestral host species (pig, cattle or buffalo), clinical stage (subclinical carrier or clinically affected) and geographical location. Phylogenetic divergence time estimation and character state reconstruction analyses suggest that movement of viruses between species differ. While inferred transmissions from cattle to buffalo and pigs and from pigs to cattle are well supported, transmission from buffalo to other species, and from pigs to buffalo may be less frequent. Geographical movements of FMDV O/PanAsia virus appears to occur in all directions within the country, with the South Central Coast and the Northeast regions playing a more important role in FMDV O/PanAsia spread. Genetic selection of variants with changes at specific sites within FMDV VP1 coding region was different depending on host groups analyzed. The overall ratio of non-synonymous to synonymous nucleotide changes was greater in pigs compared to cattle and buffalo, whereas a higher number of individual amino acid sites under positive selection were detected in persistently infected, subclinical animals compared to viruses collected from clinically diseased animals. These results provide novel insights to understand FMDV evolution and its association with viral spread within endemic countries. These findings may support animal health organizations in their endeavor to design animal disease control strategies in response to outbreaks

Site-specific substitution (Q172R) in the VP1 protein of FMDV isolates collected from asymptomatic carrier ruminants in Vietnam

The epidemiological significance of asymptomatic persistent foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) infection in carrier animals, specifically its ability to seed new clinical outbreaks, is undetermined, and consistent viral determinants of FMDV persistence have not been identified. We analyzed 114 FMDV O/ME-SA/PanAsia VP1 sequences from naturally infected animals in Vietnam, of which 31 were obtained from persistently infected carrier animals. A site-specific substitution was identified at VP1 residue 172 where arginine was present in all 31 of the carrier-associated viruses, whereas outbreak viruses typically contained glutamine. Additionally, we characterized multiple viruses from a single persistently infected animal that were collected over the course of eight months and at multiple distinct anatomic sites (larynx, dorsal soft palate and dorsal nasopharynx). This work sheds new light on naturally occurring viral mutations within the host and provides a basis for understanding the viral evolution and persistence mechanisms of FMDV

A Bayesian approach to quantifying the effects of mass poultry vaccination upon the spatial and temporal dynamics of H5N1 in Northern Vietnam.

Published versio

Knowledge, attitudes and practices related to avian influenza among poultry workers in Nepal: a cross sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Avian influenza is a considerable threat to global public health. Prevention and control depend on awareness and protective behaviours of the general population as well as high risk-groups. This study aims to explore the knowledge, attitudes and practices related to avian influenza among poultry workers in Nepal.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was based on a cross-sectional study design, using a structured questionnaire administered in face-to-face interviews with 96 poultry workers age 15 and above from the Rupandehi district in Nepal.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The majority of respondents were male (80%), mean age was 35 (SD = 11.6). Nearly everybody was aware that AI cases had been detected in Nepal and that poultry workers were at risk for infection. The major sources of AI information were radio, TV and newspapers. Knowledge about preventive measures was high with regard to some behaviours (hand washing), but medium to low with regard to others (using cleaning and disinfecting procedures or protective clothing). Poultry workers who got their information from TV and newspapers and those who were more afraid of contracting AI had higher knowledge than those who did not. Being employed as compared to being an owner of a poultry farm as well as having a high level of knowledge was associated with practising more preventive behaviours. While on one hand many specific government control measures found a high degree of acceptance, a majority of study participants also thought that government control and compensation measures as a whole were insufficient.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The study provides information about knowledge and practices regarding avian influenza among poultry workers in Nepal. It highlights the importance of targeting lack of knowledge as well as structural-material barriers to successfully build preparedness for a major outbreak situation.</p

Ecological Determinants of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) Outbreaks in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND: The agro-ecology and poultry husbandry of the south Asian and south-east Asian countries share common features, however, with noticeable differences. Hence, the ecological determinants associated with risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI-H5N1) outbreaks are expected to differ between Bangladesh and e.g., Thailand and Vietnam. The primary aim of the current study was to establish ecological determinants associated with the risk of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks at subdistrict level in Bangladesh. The secondary aim was to explore the performance of two different statistical modeling approaches for unmeasured spatially correlated variation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An ecological study at subdistrict level in Bangladesh was performed with 138 subdistricts with HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks during 2007-2008, and 326 subdistricts with no outbreaks. The association between ecological determinants and HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks was examined using a generalized linear mixed model. Spatial clustering of the ecological data was modeled using 1) an intrinsic conditional autoregressive (ICAR) model at subdistrict level considering their first order neighbors, and 2) a multilevel (ML) model with subdistricts nested within districts. Ecological determinants significantly associated with risk of HPAI-H5N1 outbreaks at subdistrict level were migratory birds' staging areas, river network, household density, literacy rate, poultry density, live bird markets, and highway network. Predictive risk maps were derived based on the resulting models. The resulting models indicate that the ML model absorbed some of the covariate effect of the ICAR model because of the neighbor structure implied in the two different models. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The study identified a new set of ecological determinants related to river networks, migratory birds' staging areas and literacy rate in addition to already known risk factors, and clarified that the generalized concept of free grazing duck and duck-rice cultivation interacted ecology are not significant determinants for Bangladesh. These findings will refine current understanding of the HPAI-H5N1 epidemiology in Bangladesh

Modelling the progression of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with other influenza viruses

BACKGROUND: A novel variant of influenza A (H1N1) is causing a pandemic and, although the illness is usually mild, there are concerns that its virulence could change through reassortment with other influenza viruses. This is of greater concern in parts of Southeast Asia, where the population density is high, influenza is less seasonal, human-animal contact is common and avian influenza is still endemic. METHODS: We developed an age- and spatially-structured mathematical model in order to estimate the potential impact of pandemic H1N1 in Vietnam and the opportunities for reassortment with animal influenza viruses. The model tracks human infection among domestic animal owners and non-owners and also estimates the numbers of animals may be exposed to infected humans. RESULTS: In the absence of effective interventions, the model predicts that the introduction of pandemic H1N1 will result in an epidemic that spreads to half of Vietnam's provinces within 57 days (interquartile range (IQR): 45-86.5) and peaks 81 days after introduction (IQR: 62.5-121 days). For the current published range of the 2009 H1N1 influenza's basic reproductive number (1.2-3.1), we estimate a median of 410,000 cases among swine owners (IQR: 220,000-670,000) with 460,000 exposed swine (IQR: 260,000-740,000), 350,000 cases among chicken owners (IQR: 170,000-630,000) with 3.7 million exposed chickens (IQR: 1.9 M-6.4 M), and 51,000 cases among duck owners (IQR: 24,000 - 96,000), with 1.2 million exposed ducks (IQR: 0.6 M-2.1 M). The median number of overall human infections in Vietnam for this range of the basic reproductive number is 6.4 million (IQR: 4.4 M-8.0 M). CONCLUSION: It is likely that, in the absence of effective interventions, the introduction of a novel H1N1 into a densely populated country such as Vietnam will result in a widespread epidemic. A large epidemic in a country with intense human-animal interaction and continued co-circulation of other seasonal and avian viruses would provide substantial opportunities for H1N1 to acquire new genes

Identifying Live Bird Markets with the Potential to Act as Reservoirs of Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus: A Survey in Northern Viet Nam and Cambodia

Wet markets are common in many parts of the world and may promote the emergence, spread and maintenance of livestock pathogens, including zoonoses. A survey was conducted in order to assess the potential of Vietnamese and Cambodian live bird markets (LBMs) to sustain circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 (HPAIV H5N1). Thirty Vietnamese and 8 Cambodian LBMs were visited, and structured interviews were conducted with the market managers and 561 Vietnamese and 84 Cambodian traders. Multivariate and cluster analysis were used to construct a typology of traders based on their poultry management practices. As a result of those practices and large poultry surplus (unsold poultry reoffered for sale the following day), some poultry traders were shown to promote conditions favorable for perpetuating HPAIV H5N1 in LBMs. More than 80% of these traders operated in LBMs located in the most densely populated areas, Ha Noi and Phnom Penh. The profiles of sellers operating at a given LBM could be reliably predicted using basic information about the location and type of market. Consequently, LBMs with the largest combination of risk factors for becoming virus reservoirs could be easily identified, potentially allowing control strategies to be appropriately targeted. These findings are of particular relevance to resource-scarce settings with extensively developed LBM systems, commonly found in South-East Asia

Spatial Distribution and Risk Factors of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in China

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 was first encountered in 1996 in Guangdong province (China) and started spreading throughout Asia and the western Palearctic in 2004–2006. Compared to several other countries where the HPAI H5N1 distribution has been studied in some detail, little is known about the environmental correlates of the HPAI H5N1 distribution in China. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreaks, and HPAI virus (HPAIV) H5N1 isolated from active risk-based surveillance sampling of domestic poultry (referred to as HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in this manuscript) were modeled separately using seven risk variables: chicken, domestic waterfowl population density, proportion of land covered by rice or surface water, cropping intensity, elevation, and human population density. We used bootstrapped logistic regression and boosted regression trees (BRT) with cross-validation to identify the weight of each variable, to assess the predictive power of the models, and to map the distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk. HPAI H5N1 clinical disease outbreak occurrence in domestic poultry was mainly associated with chicken density, human population density, and elevation. In contrast, HPAIV H5N1 infection identified by risk-based surveillance was associated with domestic waterfowl density, human population density, and the proportion of land covered by surface water. Both models had a high explanatory power (mean AUC ranging from 0.864 to 0.967). The map of HPAIV H5N1 risk distribution based on active surveillance data emphasized areas south of the Yangtze River, while the distribution of reported outbreak risk extended further North, where the density of poultry and humans is higher. We quantified the statistical association between HPAI H5N1 outbreak, HPAIV distribution and post-vaccination levels of seropositivity (percentage of effective post-vaccination seroconversion in vaccinated birds) and found that provinces with either outbreaks or HPAIV H5N1 surveillance positives in 2007–2009 appeared to have had lower antibody response to vaccination. The distribution of HPAI H5N1 risk in China appears more limited geographically than previously assessed, offering prospects for better targeted surveillance and control interventions

Seasonal Oscillation of Human Infection with Influenza A/H5N1 in Egypt and Indonesia

As of June 22, 2011, influenza A/H5N1 has caused a reported 329 deaths and 562 cases in humans, typically attributed to contact with infected poultry. Influenza H5N1 has been described as seasonal. Although several studies have evaluated environmental risk factors for H5N1 in poultry, none have considered seasonality of H5N1 in humans. In addition, temperature and humidity are suspected to drive influenza in temperate regions, but drivers in the tropics are unknown, for H5N1 as well as other influenza viruses. An analysis was conducted to determine whether human H5N1 cases occur seasonally in association with changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity. Data analyzed were H5N1 human cases in Indonesia (n = 135) and Egypt (n = 50), from January 1, 2005 (Indonesia) or 2006 (Egypt) through May 1, 2008 obtained from WHO case reports, and average daily weather conditions obtained from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Fourier time series analysis was used to determine seasonality of cases and associations between weather conditions and human H5N1 incidence. Human H5N1 cases in Indonesia occurred with a period of 1.67 years/cycle (p<0.05) and in Egypt, a period of 1.18 years/cycle (p≅0.10). Human H5N1 incidence in Egypt, but not Indonesia, was strongly associated with meteorological variables (κ2≥0.94) and peaked in Egypt when precipitation was low, and temperature, absolute humidity and relative humidity were moderate compared to the average daily conditions in Egypt. Weather conditions coinciding with peak human H5N1 incidence in Egypt suggest that human infection may be occurring primarily via droplet transmission from close contact with infected poultry