Scenario dependence of linear site-effect factors for short-period response spectral ordinates

Ground‐motion models for response spectral ordinates commonly partition site‐response effects into linear and nonlinear components. The nonlinear components depend upon the earthquake scenario being considered implicitly through the use of the expected level of excitation at some reference horizon. The linear components are always assumed to be independent of the earthquake scenario. This article presents empirical and numerical evidence as well as a theoretical explanation for why the linear component of site response depends upon the magnitude and distance of the earthquake scenario. Although the impact is most pronounced for small‐magnitude scenarios, the finding has significant implications for a number of applications of more general interest including the development of site‐response terms within ground‐motion models, the estimation of ground‐motion variability components ϕS2SϕS2S and ϕSSϕSS , the construction of partially nonergodic models for site‐specific hazard assessments, and the validity of the convolution approach for computing surface hazard curves from those at a reference horizon, among others. All of these implications are discussed in the present article

Developing a model for the prediction of ground motions due to earthquakes in the Groningen gas field

Major efforts are being undertaken to quantify seismic hazard and risk due to production-induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field as the basis for rational decision-making about mitigation measures. An essential element is a model to estimate surface ground motions expected at any location for each earthquake originating within the gas reservoir. Taking advantage of the excellent geological and geophysical characterisation of the field and a growing database of ground-motion recordings, models have been developed for predicting response spectral accelerations, peak ground velocity and ground-motion durations for a wide range of magnitudes. The models reflect the unique source and travel path characteristics of the Groningen earthquakes, and account for the inevitable uncertainty in extrapolating from the small observed magnitudes to potential larger events. The predictions of ground-motion amplitudes include the effects of nonlinear site response of the relatively soft near-surface deposits throughou t the field

Derivation of a near-surface damping model for the Groningen gas field

Seismic damping of near-surface deposits is an important input to site-response analysis for seismic hazard assessment. In Groningen, the Netherlands, gas production from a reservoir at 3 km depth causes seismicity. Above the gas field, an 800 m thick layer of unconsolidated sediments exist, which consists of a mixture of sand, gravel, clay and peat strata. Shear waves induced at 3 km depth experience most of their anelastic attenuation in these loose sediments. A good estimate of damping is therefore crucial for modeling realistic ground-motion levels. In Groningen, we take advantage of a large network of 200 m deep vertical arrays to estimate damping from recordings of the induced events. As a first step, we apply seismic interferometry by deconvolution to estimate local transfer functions over these vertical arrays. Subsequently, two different methods are employed. The first is the ’up-going’ method, where the amplitude decay of the retrieved up-going wave is used. The second is the ’up-down’ method, where the amplitude difference between retrieved up- and down-going waves is utilized. For the up-going method, the amplitude of the up-going direct wave is affected by both elastic and anelastic effects. In order to estimate the anelastic attenuation it is necessary to remove the elastic amplification first. Despite the fact that elastic compensation could be determined quite accurately, non-physical damping values were estimated for a number of boreholes. Likely, the underlying cause was small differences in effective response functions of geophones at different depths. It was found that the up-down method is more robust. With this method, elastic propagation corrections are not needed. In addition, small differences in in situ geophone response are irrelevant because the up- and down-going waves retrieved at the same geophone, are used. For the 1D case we showed that for estimating the local transfer function, the complex reverberations need to be included in the interferometric process. Only when this is done, the transfer function does not contain elastic transmission loss and Q estimation can be made without knowing the soil profile in detail. Uncertainty in the estimated damping was found from the signal-to-noise ratio of the estimated transfer function. The Q profiles estimated with the up-down method were used to derive a damping model for the top 200 m of the entire Groningen field. A scaling relation was derived by comparing estimated Q profiles with low-strain damping profiles that were constructed using published models for low-strain damping linked to soil properties. This scaling relation, together with the soil-properties based damping model, allowed up-scaling of the model to each grid-cell in the Groningen field. For depths below 200 m, damping was derived from the attenuation of the microseism over Groningen. The mean damping model, over a frequency band between 2 and 20 Hz, was estimated to be 2.0% (0-50 m depth), 1.3% (50-100 m), 0.66% (100-150 m), 0.57% (150-200 m) and 0.5% (200-580 m)

Liquefaction hazard of the Groningen region of the Netherlands due to induced seismicity

The operator of the Groningen gas field is leading an effort to quantify the seismic hazard and riskof the region due to induced earthquakes, includingoverseeing one of the most comprehensive liquefaction hazard studies performedgloballyto date. Due tothe unique characteristics of the seismic hazard and the geologic deposits in Groningen, efforts first focused on developing relationships for a Groningen-specific liquefaction triggering model. The liquefaction hazard was then assessedusing a Monte Carlo method, wherein a range of credibleevent scenarios were considered in computingliquefaction damage-potentialhazard curves. Thiseffort entailed the use of a regional stochastic seismic source model,ground motion prediction equation,site response model,and geologic model that were developed as part of the broader regional seismic hazardassessment.“No-to-Minor Surficial Liquefaction Manifestations”arepredicted for mostsites across the study areafor a 75-year return period. The only sites where “Moderate Surficial Liquefaction Manifestations” are predicted are in the town of Zandeweer, with only some of the sites in the townbeing predicted to experience this severityof liquefactionfor thisreturn period

Capturing spatial variability in the regional Ground Motion Model of Groningen, the Netherlands

Long-term exploration of the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands led to induced seismicity. Over the past nine years, an increasingly sophisticated Ground Motion Model (GMM) has been developed to assess the site response and the related seismic hazard. The GMM output strongly depends on the shear-wave velocity (VS), among other input parameters. To date, VS model data from soil profiles (Kruiver et al., Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 15(9): 3555–3580, 2017; Netherlands Journal of Geosciences, 96(5): s215–s233, 2017) have been used in the GMM. Recently, new VS profiles above the Groningen gas field were constructed using ambient noise surface wave tomography. These so-called field VS data, even though spatially limited, provide an independent source of VS to check whether the level of spatial variability in the GMM is sufficient. Here, we compared amplification factors (AF) for two sites (Borgsweer and Loppersum) calculated with the model VS and the field VS (Chmiel et al., Geophysical Journal International, 218(3), 1781–1795, 2019 and new data). Our AF results over periods relevant for seismic risk (0.01–1.0 s) show that model and field VS profiles agree within the uncertainty range generally accepted in geo-engineering. In addition, we compared modelled spectral accelerations using either field VS or model VS in Loppersum to the recordings of an earthquake that occurred during the monitoring period (ML 3.4 Zeerijp on 8 January 2018). The modelled spectral accelerations at the surface for both field VS and model VS are coherent with the earthquake data for the resonance periods representative of most buildings in Groningen (T = 0.2 and 0.3 s). These results confirm that the currently used VS model in the GMM captures spatial variability in the site response and represents reliable input for the site response calculations

Addressing limitations in existing ‘simplified’ liquefaction triggering evaluation procedures: application to induced seismicity in the Groningen gas field

The Groningen gas field is one of the largest in the world and has produced over 2000 billion m3 of natural gas since the start of production in 1963. The first earthquakes linked to gas production in the Groningen field occurred in 1991, with the largest event to date being a local magnitude (ML) 3.6. As a result, the field operator is leading an effort to quantify the seismic hazard and risk resulting from the gas production operations, including the assessment of liquefaction hazard. However, due to the unique characteristics of both the seismic hazard and the geological subsurface, particularly the unconsolidated sediments, direct application of existing liquefaction evaluation procedures is deemed inappropriate in Groningen. Specifically, the depth-stress reduction factor (rd) and the magnitude scaling factor relationships inherent to existing variants of the simplified liquefaction evaluation procedure are considered unsuitable for use. Accordingly, efforts have first focused on developing a framework for evaluating the liquefaction potential of the region for moment magnitudes (M) ranging from 3.5 to 7.0. The limitations of existing liquefaction procedures for use in Groningen and the path being followed to overcome these shortcomings are presented in detail herein

A regional site-response model for the Groningen gas field

A key element in the assessment of induced seismic hazard and risk due to induced earthquakes in the Groningen gas field is a model for the prediction of ground motions. Rather than use ground - motion prediction equations (GMPEs) with generic site amplifica tion factors conditioned on proxy parameters such as V S30 , a field - wide zonation of frequency - dependent non - linear amplification factors has been developed. Each amplification factor is associated with a measure of site - to - site variability that captures th e variation of V S profiles and hence amplification factors across each zone, as well as the influence of uncertainty in the modulus reduction and damping functions for each soil layer. This model can be used in conjunction with predictions of response spec tral accelerations at a reference rock horizon at a depth of about 80 0 m to calculate fully probabilistic estimates of the hazard in terms of ground shaking at the surface for a large region potentially affected by induced earthquakes

An integrated shear-wave velocity model for the Groningen gas field, The Netherlands

A regional shear - wave velocity (V S ) model has been developed for the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands as the basis for seismic microzonation of an area of more than 1,000 km 2 . The V S model, extending to a depth of almost 1 km, is an essential input to the modelling of hazard and risk due to induced earthquakes in the region. The detailed V S profiles are constructed from a novel combination of three data sets covering different, partially overlapping depth ranges. The uppermost 50 m of the V S profiles are obtained from a high - resolutio n geological model with representative V S values assigned to the sediments. Field measurements of V S were used to derive representative V S values for the different types of sediments. The profiles from 50 to 120 m are obtained from inversion of surface wav es recorded (as noise) during deep seismic reflection profiling of the gas reservoir. The deepest part of the profiles is obtained from sonic logging and V P - V S relationships based on measurements in deep boreholes. Criteria were established for the splicing of the three portions to generate continuous models over the entire depth range for use in site response calculations, for which an elastic half - space is ass umed to exist below a clear stratigraphic boundary and impedance contrast encountered at about 800 m depth. In order to facilitate fully probabilistic site response analyses, a scheme for the randomisation of the VS profiles is implemented