Large emergency-response exercises: qualitative characteristics - a survey

Exercises, drills, or simulations are widely used, by governments, agencies and commercial organizations, to simulate serious incidents and train staff how to respond to them. International cooperation has led to increasingly large-scale exercises, often involving hundreds or even thousands of participants in many locations. The difference between ‘large’ and ‘small’ exercises is more than one of size: (a) Large exercises are more ‘experiential’ and more likely to undermine any model of reality that single organizations may create; (b) they create a ‘play space’ in which organizations and individuals act out their own needs and identifications, and a ritual with strong social implications; (c) group-analytic psychotherapy suggests that the emotions aroused in a large group may be stronger and more difficult to control. Feelings are an unacknowledged major factor in the success or failure of exercises; (d) successful large exercises help improve the nature of trust between individuals and the organizations they represent, changing it from a situational trust to a personal trust; (e) it is more difficult to learn from large exercises or to apply the lessons identified; (f) however, large exercises can help develop organizations and individuals. Exercises (and simulation in general) need to be approached from a broader multidisciplinary direction if their full potential is to be realized

Particulate matter and albuminuria, glomerular filtration rate, and incident ckd

Background and objectives Exposure to particulate matter (PM),2.5 mm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) has been linked to detrimental health effects. This study aimed to describe the relationship between long-term PM2.5 exposure and kidney disease, including eGFR, level of albuminuria, and incident CKD. Design, setting, participants, & measurements The study included 10,997 participants from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort who were followed from 1996–1998 through 2016. Monthly mean PM2.5 concentrations (mg/m3 ) were estimated at geocoded participant addresses using geographic information system–based, spatiotemporal generalized additive mixed models—including geospatial covariates such as land use—and then averaged over the 12-month period preceding participant examination. Covariate-adjusted, cross-sectional associations of PM2.5, baseline eGFR, and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) were estimated using linear regression. PM2.5 and incident CKD (defined as follow-up eGFR,60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 with $25% eGFR decline relative to baseline, CKD-related hospitalization or death based on International Classification of Diseases 9/10 codes, or development of ESKD) associations were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. Modeling was stratified by study site, and stratum-specific estimates were combined using random-effects meta-analyses. Results Baseline mean participant age was 63 (66) years and eGFR was 86 (616) ml/min per 1.73 m2. There was no significant PM2.5-eGFR association at baseline. Each 1-mg/m3 higher annual average PM2.5 was associated with higher UACR after adjusting for demographics, socioeconomic status, and clinical covariates (percentage difference, 6.6%; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 2.6% to 10.7%). Each 1-mg/m3 higher annual average PM2.5 was associated with a significantly higher risk of incident CKD (hazard ratio, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.10). Conclusions Exposure to higher annual average PM2.5 concentrations was associated with a higher level of albuminuria and higher risk for incident CKD in a community-based cohort

Inertial effects on thin-film wave structures with imposed surface shear on an inclined plane

This study provides an extended approach to the mathematical simulation of thin-film flow on a flat inclined plane relevant to flows subject to high surface shear. Motivated by modelling thin-film structures within an industrial context, wave structures are investigated for flows with moderate inertial effects and small film depth aspect ratio, epsilon. Approximations are made assuming a Reynolds number, Re ~ O(1/epsilon), and depth-averaging used to simplify the governing Navier-Stokes equations. A parallel Stokes flow is expected in the absence of any wave disturbance and a generalisation for the flow is based on a local quadratic profile. This approach provides a more general system which includes inertial effects and is solved numerically. Flow structures are compared with studies for Stokes flow in the limit of negligible inertial effects. Both two-tier and three-tier wave disturbances are used to study film profile evolution. A parametric study is provided for wave disturbances with increasing film Reynolds number. An evaluation of standing wave and transient film profiles is undertaken and identifies new profiles not previously predicted when inertial effects are neglected

Fertility, Living Arrangements, Care and Mobility

There are four main interconnecting themes around which the contributions in this book are based. This introductory chapter aims to establish the broad context for the chapters that follow by discussing each of the themes. It does so by setting these themes within the overarching demographic challenge of the twenty-first century – demographic ageing. Each chapter is introduced in the context of the specific theme to which it primarily relates and there is a summary of the data sets used by the contributors to illustrate the wide range of cross-sectional and longitudinal data analysed

Monitoring Soil Quality to Assess the Sustainability of Harvesting Corn Stover

Harvesting feedstock for biofuel production must not degrade soil, water, or air resources. Our objective is to provide an overview of field research being conducted to quantify effects of harvesting corn (Zea mays L.) stover as a bioenergy feedstock. Coordinated field studies are being conducted near Ames, IA; St. Paul and Morris, MN; Mead, NE; University Park, PA; Florence, SC; and Brookings, SD., as part of the USDA-ARS Renewable Energy Assessment Project (REAP). A baseline soil quality assessment was made using the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF). Corn grain and residue yield for two different stover harvest rates (∼50% and ∼90%) are being measured. Available soil data remains quite limited but sufficient for an initial SMAF analysis that confirms total organic carbon (TOC) is a soil quality indicator that needs to be closely monitored closely to quantify crop residue removal effects. Overall, grain yields averaged 9.7 and 11.7 Mg ha−1 (155 and 186 bu acre−1) in 2008 and 2009, values that are consistent with national averages for both years. The average amount of stover collected for the 50% treatment was 2.6 and 4.2 Mg ha−1 for 2008 and 2009, while the 90% treatment resulted in an average removal of 5.4 and 7.4 Mg ha−1, respectively. Based on a recent literature review, both stover harvest scenarios could result in a gradual decline in TOC. However, the literature value has a large standard error, so continuation of this long-term multi-location study for several years is warranted

A theorem proving framework for the formal verification of Web Services Composition

We present a rigorous framework for the composition of Web Services within a higher order logic theorem prover. Our approach is based on the proofs-as-processes paradigm that enables inference rules of Classical Linear Logic (CLL) to be translated into pi-calculus processes. In this setting, composition is achieved by representing available web services as CLL sentences, proving the requested composite service as a conjecture, and then extracting the constructed pi-calculus term from the proof. Our framework, implemented in HOL Light, not only uses an expressive logic that allows us to incorporate multiple Web Services properties in the composition process, but also provides guarantees of soundness and correctness for the composition.Comment: In Proceedings WWV 2011, arXiv:1108.208

Galaxy Cluster Mass Reconstruction Project: III. The impact of dynamical substructure on cluster mass estimates

With the advent of wide-field cosmological surveys, we are approaching samples of hundreds of thousands of galaxy clusters. While such large numbers will help reduce statistical uncertainties, the control of systematics in cluster masses is crucial. Here we examine the effects of an important source of systematic uncertainty in galaxy-based cluster mass estimation techniques: the presence of significant dynamical substructure. Dynamical substructure manifests as dynamically distinct subgroups in phase-space, indicating an ‘unrelaxed’ state. This issue affects around a quarter of clusters in a generally selected sample. We employ a set of mock clusters whose masses have been measured homogeneously with commonly used galaxy-based mass estimation techniques (kinematic, richness, caustic, radial methods). We use these to study how the relation between observationally estimated and true cluster mass depends on the presence of substructure, as identified by various popular diagnostics. We find that the scatter for an ensemble of clusters does not increase dramatically for clusters with dynamical substructure. However, we find a systematic bias for all methods, such that clusters with significant substructure have higher measured masses than their relaxed counterparts. This bias depends on cluster mass: the most massive clusters are largely unaffected by the presence of significant substructure, but masses are significantly overestimated for lower mass clusters, by ∼10 per cent at 1014 and > or ~20 per cent for < or ~ 1013.5. The use of cluster samples with different levels of substructure can therefore bias certain cosmological parameters up to a level comparable to the typical uncertainties in current cosmological studies