Fitting Parton Distribution Data with Multiplicative Normalization Uncertainties

We consider the generic problem of performing a global fit to many independent data sets each with a different overall multiplicative normalization uncertainty. We show that the methods in common use to treat multiplicative uncertainties lead to systematic biases. We develop a method which is unbiased, based on a self--consistent iterative procedure. We demonstrate the use of this method by applying it to the determination of parton distribution functions with the NNPDF methodology, which uses a Monte Carlo method for uncertainty estimation.Comment: 33 pages, 5 figures: published versio

Untangling the ATR-CHEK1 network for prognostication, prediction and therapeutic target validation in breast cancer

Background: ATR-Chk1 signalling network is critical for genomic stability. ATR-Chk1 may be deregulated in breast cancer and have prognostic, predictive and therapeutic significance. Patients and methods: We investigated ATR and phosphorylated CHK1Ser345 protein (pChk1) expression in 1712 breast cancers (Nottingham Tenovus series). ATR and Chk1 mRNA were evaluated in 1950 breast cancers (METABRIC cohort). Pre-clinically, biological consequences of ATR gene knockdown or ATR inhibition by small molecule inhibitor (VE-821) were investigated in MCF-7 and MDA-MB-231 breast cancer cell lines and in non-tumorigenic breast epithelial cells (MCF10A). Results: High ATR and high cytoplasmic pChk1 expression was significantly associated with higher tumour stage, higher mitotic index, pleomorphism and lymphovascular invasion. In univariate analysis, high ATR and high cytoplasmic pChk1 protein expression was associated with shorter breast cancer specific survival (BCSS). In multivariate analysis, high ATR remains an independent predictor of adverse outcome. At the mRNA level, high Chk1 remains associated with aggressive phenotypes including lymph node positivity, high grade, Her-2 overexpression, triple-negative phenotype and molecular classes associated with aggressive behaviour and shorter survival.. Pre-clinically, Chk1 phosphorylation at serine 345 following replication stress (induced by gemcitabine or hydroxyurea treatment) was impaired in ATR knockdown and in VE-821 treated breast cancer cells. Doxycycline inducible knockdown of ATR suppressed growth, which was restored when ATR was re-expressed. Similarly, VE-821 treatment resulted in a dose dependent suppression of cancer cell growth and survival (MCF7 and MDA-MB-231) but had no effect on non-tumorigenic breast epithelial cells (MCF10A). Conclusions: We provides evidence that ATR and Chk1 are promising biomarkers and rational drug target for personalized therapy in breast cancer

Earnings Prediction with Deep Leaning

In the financial sector, a reliable forecast the future financial performance of a company is of great importance for investors' investment decisions. In this paper we compare long-term short-term memory (LSTM) networks to temporal convolution network (TCNs) in the prediction of future earnings per share (EPS). The experimental analysis is based on quarterly financial reporting data and daily stock market returns. For a broad sample of US firms, we find that both LSTMs outperform the naive persistent model with up to 30.0% more accurate predictions, while TCNs achieve and an improvement of 30.8%. Both types of networks are at least as accurate as analysts and exceed them by up to 12.2% (LSTM) and 13.2% (TCN).Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, submitted to KI202

Production of α1,3-galactosyltransferase-deficient pigs

The enzyme α1,3-galactosyltransferase (α1,3GT or GGTA1) synthesizes α1,3galactose (α1,3Gal) epitopes (Galα1,3Galβ1,4GlcNAc-R), which are the major xenoantigens causing hyperacute rejection in pig-to-human xenotransplantation. Complete removal of α1,3Gal from pig organs is the critical step toward the success of xenotransplantation. We reported earlier the targeted disruption of one allele of the α1,3GT gene in cloned pigs. A selection procedure based on a bacteria[toxin was used to select for cells in which the second allele of the gene was knocked out. Sequencing analysis demonstrated that knockout of the second allele of the α1,3GT gene was caused by a T-to-G single point mutation at the second base of exon 9, which resulted in inactivation of the α1,3GT protein. Four healthy α1,3GT double-knockout female piglets were produced by three consecutive rounds of cloning. The piglets carrying a point mutation in the α1,3GT gene hold significant value, as they would allow production of α1,3Gal-deficient pigs free of antibiotic-resistance genes and thus have the potential to make a safer product for human use

On direct measurement of the W production charge asymmetry at the LHC

The prospects for making a direct measurement of the W production charge asymmetry at the LHC are discussed. A modification to the method used at the Tevatron is proposed for measurements at the LHC. The expected sensitivity for such a measurement to parton distribution functions is compared to that for a measurement of the lepton charge asymmetry. The direct measurement approach is found to be less useful for placing constraints on parton distribution functions at the LHC than a measurement of the lepton charge asymmetry.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, v2: references and keywords updated v3: Additional paragraph discussing inclusion of W asymmetry in global fits adde

Inclusive top-pair production phenomenology with TOPIXS

We discuss various aspects of inclusive top-quark pair production based on TOPIXS, a new, flexible program that computes the production cross section at the Tevatron and LHC at next-to-next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy in soft and Coulomb resummation, including bound-state effects and the complete next-to-next-to-leading order result in the q-qbar channel, which has recently become available. We present the calculation of the top-pair cross section in pp collisions at 8 TeV centre-of-mass energy, as well as the cross sections for hypothetical heavy quarks in extensions of the standard model. The dependence on the parton distribution input is studied. Further we investigate the impact of LHC top cross section measurements at sqrt(s)=7 TeV on global fits of the gluon distribution using the NNPDF re-weighting method.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figures; v2: corrected typos in Eqs. (2.8) and (6.2) and the text, added footnote on page 4, matches published versio

Constraints for the nuclear parton distributions from Z and W production at the LHC

The LHC is foreseen to finally bring also the nuclear collisions to the TeV scale thereby providing new possibilities for physics studies, in particular related to the electro-weak sector of the Standard Model. We study here the Z and W production in proton-lead and lead-lead collisions at the LHC, concentrating on the prospects of testing the factorization and constraining the nuclear modifications of the parton distribution functions (PDFs). Especially, we find that the rapidity asymmetries in proton-nucleus collisions, arising from the differences in the PDFs between the colliding objects, provide a decisive advantage in comparison to the rapidity-symmetric nucleus-nucleus case. We comment on how such studies will help to improve our knowledge of the nuclear PDFs.Comment: The version accepted for publication in JHEP. New figures has been added, and we also discuss the single charged lepton productio

Pre-natal and post-natal exposure to respiratory infection and atopic diseases development: a historical cohort study

BACKGROUND: According to the hygiene hypothesis, infections in early life protect from allergic diseases. However, in earlier studies surrogate measures of infection rather than clinical infections were associated with decreased frequencies of atopic diseases. Exposure to infection indicating sub-clinical infection rather than clinical infection might protect from atopic diseases. Objective: to investigate whether exposure to acute respiratory infections within pregnancy and the first year of life is associated with atopic conditions at age 5–14 years and to explore when within pregnancy and the first year of life this exposure is most likely to be protective. METHODS: Historical cohort study: Population level data on acute respiratory infections from the routine reporting system of the former German Democratic Republic were linked with individual data from consecutive surveys on atopic diseases in the same region (n = 4672). Statistical analyses included multivariate logistic regression analysis and polynomial distributed lag models. RESULTS: High exposure to acute respiratory infection between pregnancy and age one year was associated with overall reduced odds of asthma, eczema, hay fever, atopic sensitization and total IgE. Exposure in the first 9 months of life showed the most pronounced effect. Adjusted odds ratio's for asthma, hay fever, inhalant sensitization and total IgE were statistical significantly reduced up to around half. CONCLUSION: Exposure to respiratory infection (most likely indicating sub-clinical infection) within pregnancy and the first year of life may be protective in atopic diseases development. The post-natal period thereby seems to be particularly important

Constraints on the gluon PDF from top quark pair production at hadron colliders

Using the recently derived NNLO cross sections \cite{Czakon:2013goa}, we provide NNLO+NNLL theoretical predictions for top quark pair production based on all the available NNLO PDF sets, and compare them with the most precise LHC and Tevatron data. In this comparison we study in detail the PDF uncertainty and the scale, $m_t$ and $\alpha_s$ dependence of the theoretical predictions for each PDF set. Next, we observe that top quark pair production provides a powerful direct constraint on the gluon PDF at large $x$, and include Tevatron and LHC top pair data consistently into a global NNLO PDF fit. We then explore the phenomenological consequences of the reduced gluon PDF uncertainties, by showing how they can improve predictions for Beyond the Standard Model processes at the LHC. Finally, we update to full NNLO+NNLL the theoretical predictions for the ratio of top quark cross sections between different LHC center of mass energies, as well as the cross sections for hypothetical heavy fourth-generation quark production at the LHC.Comment: 29 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in JHE

Neural Network Parameterizations of Electromagnetic Nucleon Form Factors

The electromagnetic nucleon form-factors data are studied with artificial feed forward neural networks. As a result the unbiased model-independent form-factor parametrizations are evaluated together with uncertainties. The Bayesian approach for the neural networks is adapted for chi2 error-like function and applied to the data analysis. The sequence of the feed forward neural networks with one hidden layer of units is considered. The given neural network represents a particular form-factor parametrization. The so-called evidence (the measure of how much the data favor given statistical model) is computed with the Bayesian framework and it is used to determine the best form factor parametrization.Comment: The revised version is divided into 4 sections. The discussion of the prior assumptions is added. The manuscript contains 4 new figures and 2 new tables (32 pages, 15 figures, 2 tables