The management of bipolar mania: a national survey of baseline data from the EMBLEM study in Italy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although a number of studies have assessed the management of mania in routine clinical practice, no studies have so far evaluated the short- and long-term management and outcome of patients affected by bipolar mania in different European countries.</p> <p>The objective of the study is to present, in the context of a large multicenter survey (EMBLEM study), an overview of the baseline data on the acute management of a representative sample of manic bipolar patients treated in the Italian psychiatric hospital and community settings. EMBLEM is a 2-year observational longitudinal study that evaluates across 14 European countries the patterns of the drug prescribed in patients with bipolar mania, their socio-demographic and clinical features and the outcomes of the treatment.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study consists of a 12-week acute phase and a ≤ 24-month maintenance phase. Bipolar patients were included into the study as in- or out-patients, if they initiated or changed, according to the decision of their psychiatrist, oral antipsychotics, anticonvulsants and/or lithium for the treatment of an episode of mania.</p> <p>Data concerning socio-demographic characteristics, psychiatric and medical history, severity of mania, prescribed medications, functional status and quality of life were collected at baseline and during the follow-up period.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In Italy, 563 patients were recruited in 56 sites: 376 were outpatients and 187 inpatients. The mean age was 45.8 years. The mean CGI-BP was 4.4 (± 0.9) for overall score and mania, 1.9 (± 1.2) for depression and 2.6 (± 1.6) for hallucinations/delusions. The YMRS showed that 14.4% had a total score < 12, 25.1% ≥ 12 and < 20, and 60.5% ≥ 20. At entry, 75 patients (13.7%) were treatment-naïve, 186 (34.1%) were receiving a monotherapy (of which haloperidol [24.2%], valproate [16.7%] and lithium [14.5%] were the most frequently prescribed) while 285 (52.2%) a combined therapy (of which 8.0% were represented by haloperidol/lithium combinations). After a switch to an oral medication, 137 patients (24.8%) were prescribed a monotherapy while the rest (415, 75.2%) received a combination of drugs.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Data collected at baseline in the Italian cohort of the EMBLEM study represent a relevant source of information to start addressing the short and long-term therapeutic strategies for improving the clinical as well as the socio-economic outcomes of patients affected by bipolar mania. Although it's not an epidemiological investigation and has some limitations, the results show several interesting findings as a relatively late age of onset of bipolar disorder, a low rate of past suicide attempts, a low lifetime rate of alcohol abuse and drug addiction.</p

Extensions to the Visual Predictive Check to facilitate model performance evaluation

The Visual Predictive Check (VPC) is a valuable and supportive instrument for evaluating model performance. However in its most commonly applied form, the method largely depends on a subjective comparison of the distribution of the simulated data with the observed data, without explicitly quantifying and relating the information in both. In recent adaptations to the VPC this drawback is taken into consideration by presenting the observed and predicted data as percentiles. In addition, in some of these adaptations the uncertainty in the predictions is represented visually. However, it is not assessed whether the expected random distribution of the observations around the predicted median trend is realised in relation to the number of observations. Moreover the influence of and the information residing in missing data at each time point is not taken into consideration. Therefore, in this investigation the VPC is extended with two methods to support a less subjective and thereby more adequate evaluation of model performance: (i) the Quantified Visual Predictive Check (QVPC) and (ii) the Bootstrap Visual Predictive Check (BVPC). The QVPC presents the distribution of the observations as a percentage, thus regardless the density of the data, above and below the predicted median at each time point, while also visualising the percentage of unavailable data. The BVPC weighs the predicted median against the 5th, 50th and 95th percentiles resulting from a bootstrap of the observed data median at each time point, while accounting for the number and the theoretical position of unavailable data. The proposed extensions to the VPC are illustrated by a pharmacokinetic simulation example and applied to a pharmacodynamic disease progression example

A model to control the epidemic of H5N1 influenza at the source

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>No country is fully prepared for a 1918-like pandemic influenza. Averting a pandemic of H5N1 influenza virus depends on the successful control of its endemicity, outbreaks in poultry and occasional spillage into human which carries a case-fatality rate of over 50%. The use of perimetric depopulation and vaccination has failed to halt the spread of the epidemic. Blanket vaccination for all poultry over a large geographical area is difficult. A combination of moratorium, segregation of water fowls from chickens and vaccination have been proved to be effective in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) since 2002 despite endemicity and outbreaks in neighbouring regions. Systematic surveillance in southern China showed that ducks and geese are the primary reservoirs which transmit the virus to chickens, minor poultry and even migratory birds.</p> <p>Presentation of the hypothesis</p> <p>We hypothesize that this combination of moratorium, poultry segregation and targeted vaccination if successfully adapted to an affected district or province in any geographical region with high endemicity would set an example for the control in other regions.</p> <p>Testing the hypothesis</p> <p>A planned one-off moratorium of 3 weeks at the hottest month of the year should decrease the environmental burden as a source of re-infection. Backyard farms will then be re-populated by hatchlings from virus-free chickens and minor poultry only. Targeted immunization of the ducks and geese present only in the industrial farms and also the chickens would be strictly implemented as blanket immunization of all backyard poultry is almost impossible. Freely grazing ducks and geese would not be allowed until neutralizing antibodies of H5 subtype virus is achieved. As a proof of concept, a simple mathematical model with susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) structure of coupled epidemics between aquatic birds (mainly ducks and geese) and chickens was used to estimate transmissibility within and between these two poultry populations. In the field the hypothesis is tested by prospective surveillance of poultry and immunocompetent patients hospitalized for severe pneumonia for the virus before and after the institution of these measures.</p> <p>Implications of the Hypothesis</p> <p>A combination of targeted immunization with the correct vaccine, segregation of poultry species and moratorium of poultry in addition to the present surveillance, biosecurity and hygienic measures at the farm, market and personal levels could be important in the successful control of the H5N1 virus in poultry and human for an extensive geographical region with continuing outbreaks. Alternatively a lesser scale of intervention at the district level can be considered if there is virus detection without evidence of excess poultry deaths since asymptomatic shedding is common in waterfowls.</p

Effects of Global Warming on Ancient Mammalian Communities and Their Environments

Current global warming affects the composition and dynamics of mammalian communities and can increase extinction risk; however, long-term effects of warming on mammals are less understood. Dietary reconstructions inferred from stable isotopes of fossil herbivorous mammalian tooth enamel document environmental and climatic changes in ancient ecosystems, including C(3)/C(4) transitions and relative seasonality.Here, we use stable carbon and oxygen isotopes preserved in fossil teeth to document the magnitude of mammalian dietary shifts and ancient floral change during geologically documented glacial and interglacial periods during the Pliocene (approximately 1.9 million years ago) and Pleistocene (approximately 1.3 million years ago) in Florida. Stable isotope data demonstrate increased aridity, increased C(4) grass consumption, inter-faunal dietary partitioning, increased isotopic niche breadth of mixed feeders, niche partitioning of phylogenetically similar taxa, and differences in relative seasonality with warming.Our data show that global warming resulted in dramatic vegetation and dietary changes even at lower latitudes (approximately 28 degrees N). Our results also question the use of models that predict the long term decline and extinction of species based on the assumption that niches are conserved over time. These findings have immediate relevance to clarifying possible biotic responses to current global warming in modern ecosystems

The influence of cardiovascular morbidity on the prognosis in prostate cancer. Experience from a 12-year nationwide Danish population-based cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To determine the impact of preexisting ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke on overall survival in prostate cancer patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a cohort study of patients with incident prostate cancer registered in the Danish Cancer Registry from 1997 through 2008. We identified patients diagnosed with IHD or stroke prior to the date of prostate cancer diagnosis in the Danish National Patient Registry. We constructed Kaplan-Meier curves to analyze time to death and Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) to compare mortality rates by preexisting IHD or stroke status, adjusting for age, stage, comorbidity, and calendar period.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of 30,721 prostate cancer patients, 4,276 (14%) had preexisting IHD and 1,331 (4%) preexisting stroke. Crude 1- and 5-year survival rates were 85% and 44% in men without preexisting IHD or stroke, 81% and 36% in men with preexisting IHD, and 78% and 27% in men with preexisting stroke. Adjusted HRs were 1.05 (95% CI 1.00-1.10) for patients with IHD and 1.20 (95% CI 1.12-1.30) for patients with stroke compared with patients without preexisting IHD or stroke.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Preexisting IHD had minimal impact on mortality in prostate cancer patients, whereas overall mortality was 20% higher in prostate cancer patients with preexisting stroke compared to those without IHD or stroke. These results highlight the importance of differentiating between various comorbidities.</p

Lysophosphatidylcholine as an adjuvant for lentiviral vector mediated gene transfer to airway epithelium: effect of acyl chain length

Extent: 11p.Background Poor gene transfer efficiency has been a major problem in developing an effective gene therapy for cystic fibrosis (CF) airway disease. Lysophosphatidylcholine (LPC), a natural airway surfactant, can enhance viral gene transfer in animal models. We examined the electrophysiological and physical effect of airway pre-treatment with variants of LPC on lentiviral (LV) vector gene transfer efficiency in murine nasal airways in vivo. Methods Gene transfer was assessed after 1 week following nasal instillations of a VSV-G pseudotype LV vector pre-treated with a low and high dose of LPC variants. The electrophysiological effects of a range of LPC variants were assessed by nasal transepithelial potential difference measurements (TPD) to determine tight junction permeability. Any physical changes to the epithelium from administration of the LPC variants were noted by histological methods in airway tissue harvested after 1 hour. Results Gene transduction was significantly greater compared to control (PBS) for our standard LPC (palmitoyl/stearoyl mixture) treatment and for the majority of the other LPC variants with longer acyl chain lengths. The LPC variant heptadecanoyl also produced significantly greater LV gene transfer compared to our standard LPC mixture. LV gene transfer and the transepithelial depolarization produced by the 0.1% LPC variants at 1 hour were strongly correlated (r2 = 0.94), but at the 1% concentration the correlation was less strong (r2 = 0.59). LPC variants that displayed minor to moderate levels of disruption to the airway epithelium were clearly associated with higher LV gene transfer. Conclusions These findings show the LPC variants effect on airway barrier function and their correlation to the effectiveness of gene expression. The enhanced expression produced by a number of LPC variants should provide new options for preclinical development of efficient airway gene transfer techniques.Patricia Cmielewski, Don S. Anson and David W. Parson

Neurological recovery after traumatic spinal cord injury:what is meaningful? A patients' and physicians' perspective

Study design: Cross-sectional survey. Objectives: Most studies on neurological recovery after traumatic spinal cord injury (tSCI) assess treatment effects using the American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale (AIS grade) or motor points recovery. To what extent neurological recovery is considered clinically meaningful is unknown. This study investigated the perceived clinical benefit of various degrees of neurological recovery one year after C5 AIS-A tSCI. Setting: The Netherlands. Methods: By means of a web-based survey SCI patients and physicians evaluated the benefit of various scenarios of neurological recovery on a scale from 0 to 100% (0% no benefit to 100% major benefit). Recovery to AIS-C and D, was split into C/C+ and D/D+, which was defined by the lower and upper limit of recovery for each grade. Results: A total of 79 patients and 77 physicians participated in the survey. Each AIS grade improvement from AIS-A was considered significant benefit (all p < 0.05), ranging from 47.8% (SD 26.1) for AIS-B to 86.8% (SD 24.3) for AIS-D+. Motor level lowering was also considered significant benefit (p < 0.05), ranging from 66.1% (SD 22.3) for C6 to 81.7% (SD 26.0) for C8. Conclusions: Meaningful recovery can be achieved without improving in AIS grade, since the recovery of functional motor levels appears to be as important as improving in AIS grade by both patients and physicians. Moreover, minor neurological improvements within AIS-C and D are also considered clinically meaningful. Future studies should incorporate more detailed neurological outcomes to prevent potential underestimation of neurological recovery by only using the AIS grade

Positive deviance control-case life history: a method to develop grounded hypotheses about successful long-term avoidance of infection

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prevalence rates for long-term injection drug users in some localities surpass 60% for HIV and 80% for HCV. We describe methods for developing grounded hypotheses about how some injectors avoid infection with either virus.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Subjects: 25 drug injectors who have injected drugs 8 – 15 years in New York City. 17 remain without antibody to either HIV or HCV; 3 are double-positives; and 5 are positive for HCV but not HIV. "Staying Safe" methodology compares serostatus groups using detailed biographical timelines and narratives; and information about how subjects maintain access to physical resources and social support; their strategies and tactics to remain safe; how they handle problems of addiction and demands by drug dealers and other drug users; and how their behaviors and strategies do or do not become socially-embedded practices. Grounded theory and life-history analysis techniques compare and contrast doubly-uninfected with those infected with both viruses or only with HCV.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Themes and initial hypotheses emerging from analyses included two master hypotheses that, if confirmed, should help shape preventive interventions: 1) Staying uninfected is not simply a question of social structure or social position. It involves agency by drug injectors, including sustained hard work and adaptation to changing circumstances. 2) Multiple intentionalities contribute to remaining uninfected. These conscious goals include balancing one's need for drugs and one's income; developing ways to avoid drug withdrawal sickness; avoiding situations where other drug users importune you to share drugs; and avoiding HIV (and perhaps HCV) infection. Thus, focusing on a single goal in prevention might be sub-optimal.</p> <p>Other hypotheses specify mechanisms of enacting these intentionalities. One example is finding ways to avoid extreme social ostracism.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We have identified strategies and tactics that some doubly-uninfected IDUs have developed to stay safe. Staying Safe methodology develops grounded hypotheses. These can be tested through cohort studies of incidence and prevention trials of hypothesis-based programs to help drug injectors make their injection and sexual careers safer for themselves and others. This positive deviance control-case life history method might be used to study avoiding other infections like genital herpes among sex workers.</p

The Amsterdam Studies of Acute Psychiatry I (ASAP-I); A prospective cohort study of determinants and outcome of coercive versus voluntary treatment interventions in a metropolitan area

Background The overall number of involuntary admissions is increasing in many European countries. Patients with severe mental illnesses more often progress to stages in which acute, coercive treatment is warranted. The number of studies that have examined this development and possible consequences in terms of optimizing health care delivery in emergency psychiatry is small and have a number of methodological shortcomings. The current study seeks to examine factors associated with compulsory admissions in the Amsterdam region, taking into account a comprehensive model with four groups of predictors: patient vulnerability, social support, responsiveness of the health care system and treatment adherence. Methods/Design This paper describes the design of the Amsterdam Study of Acute Psychiatry-I (ASAP-I). The study is a prospective cohort study, with one and two-year follow-up, comparing patients with and without forced admission by means of a selected nested case-control design. An estimated total number of 4,600 patients, aged 18 years and over, consecutively coming into contact with the Psychiatric Emergency Service Amsterdam (PESA) are included in the study. From this cohort, a randomly selected group of 125 involuntary admitted subjects and 125 subjects receiving non-coercive treatment are selected for further evaluation and comparison. First, socio-demographic, psychopathological and network characteristics, and prior use of health services will be described for all patients who come into contact with PESA. Second, the in-depth study of compulsory versus voluntary patients will examine which patient characteristics are associated with acute compulsory admission, also taking into account social network and healthcare variables. The third focus of the study is on the associations between patient vulnerability, social support, healthcare characteristics and treatment adherence in a two-year follow-up for patients with or without involuntarily admittance at the index consultation. Discussion The current study seeks to establish a picture of the determinants of acute compulsory admissions in the Netherlands and tries to gain a better understanding of the association with the course of illness and patient's perception of services and treatment adherence. The final aim is to find specific patient and health care factors that can be influenced by adjusting treatment programs in order to reduce the number of involuntary admissions